Decoding the Impact: Techno-Economic Analysis Unveiled
Delve into the crucial role of Techno-Economic Analysis in understanding the true significance of innovations and implementations. Learn how this process shapes decisions by evaluating both technological feasibility and economic viability together.
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If it works, will it matter? The importance of Techno-Economic Analysis Dan Matuszak Kacy Gerst
TEA at its core = estimating value TEA links a technology s cost with its performance and assesses it in the context of competing solutions Technical Performance Technology Cost/Economics = Competing Solutions 1
Questions TEA can answer Pre-Program Formation - Will this technology space be disruptive to the SOA 5-10yrs from now? What are appropriate FOA metrics? - Technology Specific - What are the key cost drivers? - Are we focusing R&D on the most important challenges? Production at-scale - - What does it cost to produce this technology at-scale? How much capital do I need? Company Formation - - How much funding do I need to raise? When? How do I assess the financial return for various business models? 2
What TEA does NOT do Assess non-economic customer needs. Ex) UT Dallas Motor Analyze players across the market value-chain, who to partner with, how to enter Accounting for market and commodity swings 3
Examples Pre-Program Formation - FOCUS Technology Specific - METALS/ARID ( top-down TEA) Production at-scale - - METALS/ARID ( bottom-up TEA/LCA) Sandwich model Company Formation - Sunfolding 4
FOCUS If it works, will it matter? Techno-Economic Analysis, Pre-Pitch: What are the SOA competing technologies? What price points do we project they will be at 5-10yrs from now? Model the best focus-like system we can come up with what s its LCOE? Sensitivity Analysis: Key cost and technical performance drivers of this system Techno-Economic Analysis, During Selection: Design FOA to request block-flow diagram of system + costs estimates for each component Run LCOE analysis for each application 5
FOCUS If it works, will it matter? Technology Performance Technology Cost/Economics 12 LCOE Model (100 MW Farm) 10 8 Real LCOE (no incentive) 6 4 2 0 0 200 400 600 800 Temperature Degrees C 6
Examples Pre-Program Formation - FOCUS Technology Specific (product and process technologies) - METALS/ARID ( top-down TEA) Production at-scale - - METALS/ARID ( bottom-up TEA/LCA) Sandwich model Company Formation - Sunfolding 7
Project Team Effort Project Team Effort (Occurs offline in ASPEN, CHEMCAD, paper, laboratory) ASPEN, CHEMCAD, paper, laboratory) (Occurs offline in Summarization / Refining Summarization / Refining (Within the TEA / LCA workbook) (Within the TEA / LCA workbook) Process Flow Diagram Discovery AR support Process Design Optimization Mass Balance Checker, ChemE Review Streams, Compositions Rigorous Process Simulation Experiments Cost Formulae, References Equipment, Total Capital Investment Suggested Aspects to Evaluate Operating Expenses Mass, Energy, Momentum Balances Equipment Sizing and Cost Estimation Operating Req s Min. Sales Price, Levelized Costs Financial Model Assumptions, Calculation Method
Examples Pre-Program Formation - FOCUS Technology Specific - METALS/ARID ( top-down TEA) Production at-scale - - METALS/ARID ( bottom-up TEA/LCA) Sandwich model Company Formation - Sunfolding 9
What does it cost to produce at scale? Production line model (typically at 3 diff volumes) includes: OPEX Labor, materials CAPEX Equipment, facilities Depreciation Sensitivity Analysis ARPA Tool = Sandwich Model Caltech, SLIPS, all magnetics teams 10
Examples Pre-Program Formation - FOCUS Technology Specific - METALS/ARID ( top-down TEA) Production at-scale - - METALS/ARID ( bottom-up TEA/LCA) Sandwich model Company Formation - Sunfolding 11
Company formation Sunfolding Example Company financial model includes: Profit & Loss financials Expected sales Revenue model Staffing/hiring plan Expected gross margin Expenses (marketing, admin) ARPA Tool = MIT Sloan Excel Model Sunfolding, others 12
