2019 RTP Update and Assumptions Summary
Stay updated on the latest 2019 RTP information including status updates, assumptions, gas price changes, and upcoming reliability studies. Explore detailed content on meetings, agenda, and next steps for energy planning and analysis in the ERCOT region.
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Presentation Transcript
2019 RTP Update May 2019 RPG Meeting
Agenda 2019 RTP case information/assumption update Status update Next steps Appendix 2019 RTP Final Load Levels 2 PUBLIC
2019 RTP Status Update Initial reliability start cases were posted on MIS Secure on March 15, 2019. Load forecast values for economic analysis were posted on MIS Secure on April 8, 2019. Currently in progress: Single-event (N-1) reliability analysis Economic analysis 3 PUBLIC
2019 RTP Assumptions Update (1/2) Resources that have been publicly announced to shut down will be taken offline Decker Units 1 and 2 (announced April 17, 20191) Oklaunion (announced September 20, 20182) ERCOT will submit a PGRR to codify this assumption Horse Hollow switching considerations? 1 https://www.austintexas.gov/edims/document.cfm?id=317748 2 https://aep.com/Assets/docs/investors/AnnualReportsProxies/docs/18annrep/2018AnnualReportAppendixAtoProxy.pdf 4 PUBLIC
2019 RTP Assumptions Update (2/2) DC tie curtailment will be utilized before proposing transmission upgrades for P0, P1, P2.1, and P7 contingencies There is a new stability interface limit that will be modeled for the Lobo-North Edinburg 345 kV line 5 PUBLIC
2019 RTP Gas Price Assumption 2019 $3.03 2020 $3.08 2021 $3.00 2022 $3.00 2023 $3.13 2024 $3.31 2025 $3.53 2026 $3.60 EIA AEO scenario (2018 $) Reference case High economic growth $3.01 $3.08 $3.01 $3.02 $3.16 $3.37 $3.59 $3.67 Low economic growth $3.03 $3.07 $2.99 $2.96 $3.06 $3.24 $3.43 $3.55 High oil and gas resource and technology $2.83 $2.76 $2.60 $2.55 $2.61 $2.74 $2.90 $2.99 6 PUBLIC
Next Steps Other Reliability Studies Sensitivity analysis Case conditioning Short circuit study Long-lead time equipment study Initial start cases, and contingency list ready Multiple element outage and cascading analyses 2018 RTP Report Set 1 (P1, P7), Set 2 (P2, P4, P5) contingency analysis for the base cases Economic analysis P3, P6.2 contingency analysis for the base cases Blue box: complete Yellow box: in progress 7 PUBLIC
Send comments to: Ping.Yan@ercot.com
2019 RTP Load Level less self-served and losses (final) North Central South Central Year Coast East Far West North Southern West 23,828 2,884 5,690 2,221 26,723 13,658 6,349 2,318 2021 24,343 2,903 5,865 2,229 27,026 13,906 6,583 2,381 2022 24,907 2,966 6,151 2,246 27,636 14,399 7,332 2,507 2024 25,087 3,002 6,256 2,254 27,939 14,639 7,707 2,568 2025 All load levels in MW Bounded (based on 5% threshold) 90th percentile SSWG Forecast Adjusted based on ERCOT review of TSP information 9 PUBLIC
SSWG load v/s ERCOT 90/10 (less losses and self served) Coast Load (MW) East Load (MW) 25500 3050 25000 3000 24500 24000 2950 23500 2900 23000 22500 2850 22000 2800 21500 21000 2750 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 SSWG ERCOT 90/10 2019 RTP Load SSWG ERCOT 90/10 2019 RTP Load North Load (MW) North Central Load (MW) 2300 28500 28000 2250 27500 2200 27000 2150 26500 26000 2100 25500 2050 25000 2000 24500 1950 24000 2021 2022 2024 2025 2021 2022 2024 2025 SSWG ERCOT 90/10 2019 RTP Load SSWG ERCOT 90/10 2019 RTP Load 1 0 PUBLIC
SSWG load v/s ERCOT 90/10 (less losses and self served) Far West Load (MW) West Load (MW) 7000 2600 6000 2500 5000 2400 4000 2300 3000 2200 2000 2100 1000 0 2000 2021 2022 2024 2025 2021 2022 2024 2025 SSWG ERCOT 90/10 2019 RTP Load SSWG ERCOT 90/10 2019 RTP Load South Central Load (MW) South Load (MW) 14800 8000 14600 7000 14400 6000 14200 14000 5000 13800 4000 13600 13400 3000 13200 2000 13000 12800 1000 2021 2022 2024 2025 2021 2022 2024 2025 SSWG ERCOT 90/10 2019 RTP Load SSWG ERCOT 90/10 2019 RTP Load 1 1 PUBLIC
