2020 Energy Efficiency Program Plan & Systems Reliability Procurement
Presented in a council meeting, the plan highlights key issues such as budget gaps, bill impacts, and stakeholder queries. It includes data on annual savings, budget allocation, and shift drivers for electric and gas portfolios.
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Presentation Transcript
2020 Energy Efficiency Program Plan & Systems Reliability Procurement Plan Next Steps EERMC Council Meeting September 19, 2019 Presentation by EERMC Consultant Team 1
Status of Key 2020 Plan Issues 1. Savings and Budget still believe there is a gap here (e.g. acquisition costs) 2. Bill Impacts & Cross Program attachments received for 1st time with third draft 3. Unanswered questions C-Team: A few outstanding BC Model questions; overarching data transparency Stakeholders: The Division and TEC-RI have outstanding questions as well 4. EBF - data and language supporting funding; determine funding source 5. Program Incentive Mechanisms (PIMs) confirm in 3rd draft 6. Combined Heat and Power (CHP) confirm in 3rd draft 2
Annual Savings Acquisition Cost Electric Portfolio Estimated Acquisition Cost Electric Portfolio Estimated Acquisition Cost Gas Portfolio Estimated Acquisition Cost Gas Portfolio Estimated Acquisition Cost The data in these charts was calculated as (implementation budget) / (total annual savings) 3
2020 Annual Plan Budget Electric Implementation Budget ($MM) Electric Implementation Budget ($MM) Gas Implementation Budget ($MM) Gas Implementation Budget ($MM) 4
Budget Shift Drivers Commercial & Industrial Sector (C&I) Electric responsible for half of electric budget increase Even larger increase in Large Commercial Retrofit program offset by reductions elsewhere in C&I, especially Small Business Direct Install Single Family Income Eligible Program is showing a large electric budget increase C&I Gas responsible for 75% of gas budget increase Driven by Large Commercial Retrofit, Commercial Pilots, and Finance program budget increases Other gas increases in Single Family Income Eligible and Energy Star HVAC 5
2020 Annual Plan Savings Electric Portfolio Savings (Annual GWh) Electric Portfolio Savings (Annual GWh) Gas Portfolio Savings (Annual MMBtus) Gas Portfolio Savings (Annual MMBtus) 6
Savings Shift Drivers Electric decrease 50% due to Residential Energy Star Lighting However, significant decreases elsewhere, including programs with sizable budget increases Gas savings increases driven by Large Commercial Retrofit & New Construction, Energy Star HVAC, SF Income Eligible Areas of increased savings more closely match areas of increased budget in gas 7
System Benefit Charge Sizable increase compared to 2020 target from 3-year plan Driven by inter-year reconciliation Came down significantly from 1st draft 2020 target still represents a >7% increase from 2019 8
Next Steps 2020 Plan Resolution on key 2020 plan issues by October 3 meeting E.g. budget, savings, outstanding questions, EBF, PIMs, CHP Prompt delivery of 3rd draft BC Model Need to review text & BC Model, ask questions, receive & assess answers Vote on 2020 plan (3rd draft + final changes) at EERMC October 3 meeting Future Planning Cycles Prompt and comprehensive deliverables (drafts, BC Models, responses to questions) More transparency into details of changes from prior year Data granularity in BC models (especially C&I), clarity on forecasting methods Explanation of changes why why there are changes, not just what Year-End Report must have a BC Model version delivered what they are 9
Timeline Event/Action EERMC Meeting - 3rd draft presented by Grid for discussion SRP Technical Working Group - 3rd draft review with stakeholders Proposed changes to 3rd draft submitted to Grid EE Technical Working Group - 3rd draft review with stakeholders Grid provides summary of changes to draft 3 to EERMC EERMC Meeting - VOTE on EE / SRP Plans & Cost-Effectiveness Report EERMC Counsel submits Cost-Effectiveness Report to PUC (Marisa Desautel) Grid files 2020 EE and SRP Plans with PUC PUC Technical Session on Plans PUC ruling on Plans Sep 19th 25th 26th 27th 30th Oct Nov Dec 3rd 4th 15th TBD TBD 10
APPENDIX 11
Program-Level Budget Shifts Electric Programs Electric Programs Gas Programs Gas Programs Program Second Draft 2020 Plan $2,569,921 $4,901,164 $960,825 $123,801 $1,276,015 $500,000 $22,031 $10,353,756 $5,664,904 $2,987,944 $8,652,847 $2,647,089 $8,036,340 $1,502,736 $467,822 $617,595 $67,402 $69,239 $13,408,223 $373,011 $373,011 $746,021 $33,160,848 Compared to First Draft 2020 Plan Program Second Draft 2020 Plan $7,210,346 $5,334,801 $24,190,234 $5,000,000 $66,093 $106,269 $2,078,444 $43,986,188 $12,410,479 $3,552,650 $15,963,129 $973,067 $2,605,333 $15,833,875 $2,819,633 $2,726,859 $15,137,266 $2,188,762 $40,000 $444,800 $203,884 $455,343 $288,718 $43,717,541 $929,062 $929,062 $1,858,124 $105,524,982 Compared to First Draft 2020 Plan Compared to 2019 Plan Compared to 2019 Plan $180,691 $687,201 $42,455 -$646 $894,888 $500,000 #DIV/0! $9,019 $2,313,607 $652,062 $55,250 $707,312 $482,186 -$429,914 -$174,788 $19,919 -$120,040 -$6,274 $30,285 -$198,626 $137,538 $68,788 $206,327 $3,028,619 8% 16% 5% -1% 235% $48,257 -$167,599 $10,440 -$660 2% -3% 1% -1% 0% 0% 58% -1% 0% 0% 0% 26% -5% 0% 0% -8% 0% 51% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Large Commercial New Construction Large Commercial Retrofit C&I Multifamily C&I Small Business Direct Install Commercial Pilots Finance Costs Community Based Initiatives - C&I C&I Total Single Family - Income Eligible Services Income Eligible Multifamily Income Eligible Total ENERGY STAR HVAC EnergyWise Single Family EnergyWise Multifamily Home Energy Reports Residential New Construction Comprehensive Marketing - Residential Community Based Initiatives - Residential Residential Total EERMC OER Regulatory Total Portfolio Total -$1,502,454 $298,656 $2,833,712 -17% 6% 13% 0% 65% -46% 3% 4% 6% 5% 6% 13% -4% 0% -8% 3% 1% 3% 0% -20% 68% 61% 30% 1% -6% 19% 5% 3% -$124,365 $79,543 $524,109 -$2,000,000 $23,143 -2% 2% 2% -29% 54% 0% -11% -4% 0% 0% 0% 7% 8% -3% 0% 0% -8% 6% 0% 0% 34% 0% 0% -3% -7% -7% -7% -3% Small Business Direct Install Large Commercial New Construction Large Commercial Retrofit C&I Financing Community Based Initiatives - C&I Commercial Pilots Commercial ConnectedSolutions C&I Total Single Family - Income Eligible Services Income Eligible Multifamily Income Eligible Total Residential New Construction ENERGY STAR HVAC EnergyWise EnergyWise Multifamily Home Energy Reports ENERGY STAR Lighting Residential Consumer Products Energy Efficiency Education Comprehensive Marketing - Residential Community Based Initiatives - Residential Residential ConnectedSolutions Residential Pilots Residential Total EERMC OER Regulatory Total Portfolio Total $0 $0 $0 $25,956 -$91,661 $54,309 $1,618,519 $715,751 $169,746 $885,497 $114,435 -$118,624 $56,375 -$245,239 $85,663 $169,043 $64,263 $0 69% 29% 13% 2% 9% 22% -5% -10% 4% -16% -9% 78% -1% 58% 23% 38% 10% $8,081 -$101,481 -$3,056 -$1,757 -$4,813 $549,936 -$389,237 -$863 -$301 -$55,316 -$250,511 -$1,748,082 -$12,431 -$3,717 -$16,148 $66,932 $187,379 -$515,906 -$2,717 -$3,225 -$1,257,193 $116,093 $0 $23,412 $127,630 $594 $594 $1,188 $22,524 $0 $0 $0 -$111,747 $82,372 $172,233 $66,000 $334,772 -$60,738 $145,462 $84,724 $2,923,512 $51,581 -$403 $0 -$1,357,459 -$72,058 -$72,058 -$144,117 -$3,265,805 12
Program-Level Savings Shifts Electric Annual MWh Savings Electric Annual MWh Savings Gas Annual MMBtu Savings Gas Annual MMBtu Savings Program Second Draft 2020 Plan 11,500 71,936 92,955 23,239 38,093 77,651 176,340 Compared to 2019 Plan Compared to First Draft 2020 Plan Program Second Draft 2020 Plan 45,474 162,728 11,155 221,881 24,413 34,049 29,994 25,621 14,561 115,426 189,872 445,802 Compared to 2019 Plan Compared to First Draft 2020 Plan Small Business Direct Install Large Commercial New Construction Large Commercial Retrofit C&I Total Single Family - Income Eligible Services Income Eligible Multifamily Income Eligible Total Residential New Construction ENERGY STAR HVAC EnergyWise EnergyWise Multifamily Home Energy Reports ENERGY STAR Lighting Residential Consumer Products Residential Total Portfolio Total -663 -1,343 -1,077 -3,083 -399 -828 -1,227 113 -1,182 -1,971 -650 -891 -10,288 -5% -12% -1% -3% -11% -26% -18% 15% -44% -24% -18% -4% -21% 21% -15% -9% 697 117 820 6% 1% 1% 2% 0% -2% -1% -10% 19% 0% 0% 0% 1% 21% 2% 2% Large Commercial New Construction Large Commercial Retrofit C&I Multifamily C&I Small Business Direct Install C&I Total Single Family - Income Eligible Services Income Eligible Multifamily Income Eligible Total ENERGY STAR HVAC EnergyWise Single Family EnergyWise Multifamily Home Energy Reports Residential New Construction Residential Total Portfolio Total 2,938 7,679 326 -36 10,907 459 3,925 4,384 2,034 -2,185 -1,482 7% 5% 3% -1% 5% 5% 19% 15% 7% -8% -9% 0% -10% -1% 3% 2,669 6,247 -48 6% 4% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 9,520 1,634 2,523 0 3,343 2,392 5,734 870 1,528 6,210 2,943 0 8,868 -60 -60 -97 242 9,637 0 -40 -40 -95 0 0 0 0 -38 -94 -470 -2,197 13,094 0 466 834 4,270 127 -6 4,768 843 -14,027 -18,336 1,445 3,019 8,821 13
