Afghanistan Surveys by Langer Research Associates

Afghanistan surveys conducted by Langer Research Associates in collaboration with ABC, media partners, and national samples. The surveys include in-person interviews from 2005 to 2010, with consistent methodology for reliable trend analysis. The latest survey details the sponsors, fieldwork, methodology, and challenges faced during data collection, such as security hazards. Fieldwork incidents in various provinces like Baghlan, Faryab, Ghor, Jawzjan, Wardak, Nimroz, and Nuristan are also documented.

• Afghanistan
• Surveys
• Langer Research Associates
• Data Collection
• Security Hazards

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1. Gary Langer Langer Research Associates glanger@langerresearch.com

2. Afghanistan surveys (ABC/media partners) National, area-probability samples Random selection, in-person interviews Six in a series: Oct. 29-Nov. 13, 2010 Dec. 11-23, 2009 Dec. 30, 2008-Jan. 12, 2009 Oct. 28-Nov. 7, 2007 Oct. 14-19, 2006 Oct. 8-18, 2005 Consistent methodology/reliable time trend

3. Latest: Sponsors: ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post Field work: ACSOR, subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc. Methodology: 227 random sampling points, stratified urban/rural, PPS to district, SRS at settlement level. Provincial oversamples: Balkh, Bamiyan, Farah, Ghazni, Ghor, Helmand, Kandahar, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Nimroz, Nuristan, Paktia, Panjshirand Wardak. Field: Area probability, random route, Kish grid. 209 Afghan interviewers, 98/111 m/f, 28% supervised or back-checked, logical controls in DP.

4. Specs., cont. Noncoverage: 59 of country s 398 districts were inaccessible for security reasons; 75 inaccessible to women interviewers. Noncoverage = 10% of men, 21% of women. Replacements: 18 of 116 randomly drawn districts were inaccessible (15 security, 2 weather, 1 transportation); replaced by random draw. Weighted to population of province and sex by region using CSO population projections. Average 36-minute interview. Contact rate 86 percent, co- operation rate 94 percent, net RR 81 percent, MOE 3.5 points inc. DEFF of 2.2.

5. Field Work Hazard #1: Security Parwan (ACSOR photo) (ACSOR photo)

6. Baghlan tankers were put to fire by Taliban, and one American armored vehicle was destroyed by Taliban rocket attack. Faryab One suicide attack took place in Khwaja Sabz Posh District which killed and injured lots of people Ghor The passengers including our interviewers were robbed of money by robbers on the road to one of Ghor districts. Jawzjan During our survey a fight between security police and Taliban took place, the fight continued for four hours. Wardak Taliban militants took with them a person on charges of being Arbaki and was sentenced to heavy castigation. Nimroz We witnessed rocket attacks on the second day of our work from Taliban on Nimroz airport. Nuristan Taliban insurgents blazed and set afire to a girls school in Mandool district and demolished the entire school building.

7. Field Work Hazard #2: Getting Around (ACSOR photo)

8. Baghlan the road in Salang was not in good condition, it was snowing and cars had crashed and fell down from the mountains one car crashed with a big tanker in this accident all passengers in the small car were killed. Jawzjan While going to the province the car I was traveling in crashed with another car, in the accident the two men from opposite side were killed and two were badly injured. Nuristan landslide on the main highway had caused blockade of the way. Kapisa The flood destroyed the road to Nijrab district. Wardak On Sayed Abad highway in Dasht Toob area, a mini car made an accident with a giant vehicle where three people lost their lives. Laghman Armed insurgents are active in Alingar district where travel is an enormous issue.

9. Interviewer instruction: Note transportation issues (car trouble, car accidents, etc.) Panjshir supervisor: 1. Lack of mini buses. 2. High prices of fuel, and road fares. 3. Anarchy.

10. Overview of Recent Trend December 2009: Sharp improvements, public views buoyed by political, economic and military efforts. Election resolved peaceably, with promises/paybacks Improved delivery of development aid Promised U.S. surge/commitment Perceived Taliban setbacks Reduced USAF-attributed civilian casualties November 2010: Retrenchment given unmet expectations. Favorable views of the U.S., ratings of its performance, confidence in its ability to provide security, support for its presence all match previous lows or set new ones. Where the surge has focused, views have improved (from low levels) Improvements there more than offset elsewhere, where instability or economic difficulties have grown and USAF presence is lacking Whack-a-mole: Taliban activity on the rise outside USAF focus areas

11. External validation March 10, 2011: Kunduz police chief killed by suicide bomber while he was walking on the street to show how secure Kunduz has become after recent military operations. Several bodyguards seriously injured. Strong Taliban presence in this area, Kunduz results: December 2009: 4% November 2010: 28%

12. Views of the U.S. Effort

13. Attitudes Toward the U.S. ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 90% 83% 78% 80% 70% 67% 68% 62% 60% 50% 43% 40% 36% 32% 30% Support presence of U.S. forces Positive ratings of U.S. work in Afghanistan Confidence in the U.S. to provide security Favorable views of the U.S. 20% 10% 0% 10/18/05 10/19/06 11/7/07 1/12/09 12/23/09 11/13/10

14. Mainly Blame for Violence ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 60% 50% Taliban Al Qaeda / Foreign jihadis U.S. / NATO 40% 36% 33% 30% 24% 22% 20% 20% 19% 10% 0% 11/7/07 1/12/09 12/23/09 11/13/10

15. U.S. Progress Towards Goals ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Some Great deal Training Afghan forces to be able to take 30% 84% over security Strengthening Afghanistan's government 22% 69% Preventing al Qaeda from establishing bases of operation in Afghanistan 20% 66% Improving economic development 19% 64% Preventing the Taliban from retaking 63% 19% control Preventing al Qaeda and the Taliban from maintaining bases in Pakistan 17% 57% Reducing official corruption 15% 53%

16. 70% U.S. and NATO/ISAF Performance In the Past Year ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 60% 53% Gotten better Gotten worse 50% 39% 40% 36% 32% 32% 30% 30% 28% 28% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% Training the Afghan army and police Providing security Providing reconstruction assistance Avoiding civilian causualities Supporting local authorities

17. U.S. and NATO Troop Surge ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 80% 70% Dec 2009 Nov 2010 61% 60% 49% 49% 50% 40% 36% 30% 25% 22% 18% 20% 14% 10% 0% Support NET Support strongly Oppose NET Oppose strongly

18. Attacks on U.S. Forces ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 100% 90% 78% 76% 80% 74% 70% 64% 64% 60% 60% Not justified Justified 50% 40% 30% 27% 30% 25% 17% 20% 13% 8% 10% 0% 10/18/05 10/19/06 11/7/07 1/12/09 12/23/09 11/13/10

19. Overall Role of the U.S. in Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 60% 50% 45% 44% 43% 40% 36% 36% 30% 31% 20% Positive Negative 10% 0% 1/12/09 12/23/09 11/13/10

20. Hamid Karzai's Work as President ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 100% 90% 83% Excellent/Good 80% Fair/Poor 71% 68% 70% 63% 62% 60% 52% 50% 47% 40% 37% 36% 30% 32% 28% 20% 16% 10% 0% 10/18/05 10/19/06 11/7/07 1/12/09 12/23/09 11/13/10

21. Performance Ratings, 2005 to Present ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 100% 90% 83% 80% 80% 66% 65% 70% 62% 58% 60% 57% 50% 40% Afghan Army Hamid Karzai 30% Afghan government Afghan Police 20% 10% 0% 10/18/05 10/19/06 11/7/07 1/12/09 12/23/09 11/13/10

22. Afghanistan's Direction ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 100% 90% Right direction Wrong direction 77% 80% 70% 70% 64% 59% 60% 55% 54% 50% 40% 40% 38% 30% 22% 28% 24% 20% 21% 10% 11% 6% 0% 3/13/04 10/18/05 10/19/06 11/7/07 1/12/09 12/23/09 11/13/10

24. Reports of Local Violence ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 70% 60% Dec 2009 Nov 2010 50% 44% 43% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 40% 36% 35% 33% 32% 30% 29% 30% 25% 20% 10% 0% Civilians killed by Taliban or al Qaeda Snipers, crossfire Car bombs, suicide attacks Kidnappings for ransom Civilians killed by U.S. or NATO U.S. or NATO bombings or shellings Civilians killed by Afghan army or police

25. 70% Reports of Local Taliban Activities ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 60% Jan 2009 Dec 2010 50% 40% 40% 35% 33% 32% 30% 30% 27% 27% 26% 24% 24% 21% 20% 17% 10% 0% Fighting Afghan or foreign troops Killing individuals Bombings Burning schools and government buildings Delivery of night letters People giving food/money to the Taliban

26. Taliban in Past Year ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 70% 60% Dec 2009 Nov 2010 50% 40% 40% 33% 33% 31% 30% 30% 25% 20% 10% 0% Grown stronger Grown weaker Remained the same

27. Support U.S. presence Better life in a year Taliban grown stronger 58% 58% Taliban grown weaker 67% 76% Taliban very active in area 52% 52% Taliban not active in area 69% 70% Coalition bombing in area 49% 59% No bombing in area 68% 69% Civilian casualties in the area 53% 61% No civilian casualties 68% 68% Violence in the area 59% 62%

28. % Saying Attacks on U.S. Forces Can be Justified ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 70% 60% Dec 2009 Nov 2010 50% 40% 40% 36% 30% 20% 18% 13% 12% 9% 10% 7% 7% 0% High conflict provinces Provinces where conflict is increasing Low conflict provinces Provinces where conflict is decreasing

29. Positive Ratings of Local Conditions ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 90% 83% 80% 71% 72% 71% 70% 69% 60% 58% 57% 52% 50% 40% 36% 35% 34% 33% 30% 20% Local conditions overall Security from crime and violence Availability of jobs/economic opportunities Freedom of movement 10% Rights of women Support for agriculture 0% 10/18/05 10/19/06 11/7/07 1/12/09 12/23/09 11/13/10

30. Perceived Changes in Local Conditions ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 70% 60% Getting better Getting worse 50% 40% 40% 39% 40% 32% 31% 30% 22% 20% 10% 0% Security from crime and violence Availability of jobs / economic opportunities Freedom of movement

31. 100% Women's Rights and the Taliban ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 90% 80% Good Bad 69% 70% 61% 60% 49% 49% 50% 37% 40% 28% 30% 20% 10% 0% No Taliban activities in area 1-4 Taliban activities in area 5-6 Taliban activities in area

33. Regions of Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

34. First the good news

35. Attitudes Towards the U.S. in Helmand ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Nov 2010 Dec 2009 +24 pts 43% Positive ratings of U.S. work 19% +24 pts 42% Support for U.S. in area 18% 54% +18 pts Support U.S. presence 36% 42% +15 pts Confident U.S. can provide security 27% +12 pts 59% Favorable view of U.S. 47%

36. The Taliban in Helmand ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Nov 2010 Dec 2009 44% -46 pts Taliban fighting in area 90% 9% Support for Taliban in area -16 pts 25% 8% Taliban stronger -15 pts 23% 4% Favorable view of Taliban 17% -13 pts 8% Support Taliban presence 19% -11 pts

37. Positive Ratings of Living Conditions in Helmand ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Nov 2010 Dec 2009 67% +53 pts Local security 14% 58% +45 pts Security from Taliban 13% +45 pts 59% Economic opportunity 14% 61% +35 pts Freedom of movement 26% 71% +27 pts Living conditions overall 44% 71% +24 pts Availability of food 47%

38. Attitudes Towards the U.S. in Kandahar ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Nov 2010 Dec 2009 31% +24 pts Positive ratings of U.S. work 7% 39% +22 pts Support for U.S. in area 17% 58% +27 pts Support U.S. presence 31% 36% +17 pts Confident U.S. can provide security 19% 31% +20 pts Favorable view of U.S. 11%

39. The Taliban in Kandahar ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Nov 2010 Dec 2009 54% -17 pts Taliban fighting in area 71% But... +9 pts 37% Support for Taliban in area 28% 40% Support Taliban presence +16 pts 24% 26% Taliban stronger +17 pts 9% 45% +20 pts Favorble view of Taliban 25%

40. Whack-a-mole Taliban has been squeezed out of Helmand/Kandahar into other regions of the country. Increased reports of violence / Taliban activities Development projects have slowed in areas outside of the focus of the surge. Decline in living conditions Deteriorating economic conditions

41. Average Number of Taliban Activities ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 5.0 Jan 2009 Nov 2010 4.0 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 Northeast East Central Central east North Southeast Northwest Southwest

42. Confident U.S. Can Provide Security ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 60% 50% Dec 2009 Nov 2010 50% 42% 40% 36% 35% 30% 27% 19% 20% 10% 0% Helmand Kandahar Rest of Afghanistan

43. Support for Presence of U.S. Forces by Region ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Dec 2009 Nov 2010 90% 86% 82% 81% 77% 70% 68% 67% 61% 57% 54% 49% 43% 41% 39% 34% North Northeast East Central east Central Southeast Southwest Northwest

44. Living Conditions Province/Region (ACSOR photo)

45. Average Number of Local Conditions Rated Positively ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll 12 11 10 Dec 2009 Nov 2010 9.3 8.6 9 8.4 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.8 8 7.6 7.0 6.9 6.8 7 6.6 6.2 6.2 5.7 6 5.2 5 4 3 2 1 0 East North Central Northwest Northeast Central East Southwest Southeast

46. Region-Level Change in Ratings of Local Conditions Year-to-year change in average number of positive ratings of local conditions Note. Region Level Ns range from 60 to 511 (Helmand N = 200). All changes indicated are statistically significant at p < .05.

47. Biggest Drops in Positive Ratings of Local Conditions in Northwest Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Nov 2010 Dec 2009 37% -25 pts Rights of women 62% 36% -20 pts Freedom of movement 56% 18% -20 pts Economic opportunity 38% 56% -11 pts Availability of water 67% 54% -8 pts Availability of food 62% 26% -7 pts Security from Taliban 33%

48. Biggest Drops in Positive Ratings of Local Conditions in North Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Nov 2010 Dec 2009 43% -27 pts Ability to afford things 70% 55% -24 pts Security from Taliban 79% 55% Rights of women -24 pts 79% 67% Living conditions overall -23 pts 90% 66% Freedom of movement -14 pts 80% 41% Economic opportunity -12 pts 53%

49. Biggest Drops in Positive Ratings of Local Conditions in Central Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Nov 2010 Dec 2009 44% -28 pts Security from violence 72% 53% -28 pts Freedom of movement 81% 32% -20 pts Security from Taliban 52% 51% Rights of women -18 pts 69% 60% Availability of water -16 pts 76% 47% Availability of medical care -14 pts 61%

50. Biggest Drops in Positive Ratings of Local Conditions in East Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll Nov 2010 Dec 2009 39% -31 pts Freedom of movement 70% 34% -30 pts Ability to afford things 64% 27% Economic opportunity -18 pts 45% 47% Infrastructure -18 pts 65% 44% Security from violence -15 pts 59% 74% Living conditions overall -14 pts 88%

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