
African Monsoon Evolution & Outlook
Stay informed about the recent evolution and current status of the African monsoon, including weekly outlook updates for different regions in Africa. Get detailed information on rainfall patterns over the past 7 and 90 days, along with forecasts for the coming weeks.
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Presentation Transcript
The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared 12 August 2024 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml
Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP GEFS Forecasts Summary
Highlights: Last 7 Days During the past 7 days, in East Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Ethiopia, western and northeastern South Sudan, most of Sudan, northwestern Uganda, western Kenya, and isolated localities in southern Somalia. Below-average rainfall was observed over west-central Ethiopia, isolated areas in southern and southeastern Sudan, and over north-central South Sudan. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Chad, southern CAR, and northern DRC. Below-average rainfall was observed in most parts of Cameroon and most of CAR. In West Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over southern Mauritania, southern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, isolated areas in Burkina Faso and Niger, western Mali, and northern Nigeria. Rainfall was below-average over western Senegal, western Sierra Leone, Liberia, most of Cote d Ivoire, southern Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and most of Nigeria. The Week-1 outlook calls for above-normal rainfall from west to east coasts of Africa including Southern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, northern Liberia, most of Mali excluding the northern parts, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, northern parts of Cote d Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria, northern DRC, CAR, northeastern Congo, South Sudan, southern parts of Sudan, Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, Djibouti, northwestern Somalia, northeastern Uganda, and southwestern Kenya. Enhanced probabilities for weekly rainfall to exceed 100 mm are indicated over West Africa and Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-normal rainfall in the eastern parts of the Gulf Guinea from southern Ghana to western Cameroon. The Week-2 outlook calls for above average rainfall over Guinea, eastern Sierra Leone, eastern Senegal, western Mali, northern Cote d Ivoire, northeastern Nigeria, eastern Chad, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northwestern Kenya, eastern and northeastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti. Below average rainfall is indicated in southeastern Nigeria, most of Cameroon, northern Gabon, northern Congo, western DRC, parts of CAR, and southwestern Ethiopia.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days Over the past 90 days, in East Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over Sudan, most of South Sudan, much of Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, western Kenya, northwestern Somalia, and northwestern Uganda. Rainfall was below-average over southeastern South Sudan, most of Somalia, southern and southeastern Ethiopia, and southwestern and northeastern Uganda. In southern Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over southern parts of South Africa, central parts of Mozambique, and parts of Madagascar. Below-average rainfall was observed over northern and eastern South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, and most parts of Madagascar. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over parts of CAR, northern parts of DRC, northern Congo, most of Gabon, and Chad. Rainfall was below-average over Cameroon, southern Congo, western CAR and neighboring regions of Congo, central and western DRC, and few areas in southern Chad. In West Africa, rainfall was above-average over parts of Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, parts of northern Liberia, most of Mali, northwestern Cote d Ivoire, Burkina Faso, southern and northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, most of Niger, and isolated areas in Nigeria. Below-average rainfall was observed over southeastern Liberia, southern and central Cote d Ivoire, central Ghana, most of Nigeria excluding northern and southwestern portions.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days Over the past 30 days, in East Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda, western Kenya, and northwestern and parts of southern Somalia. Rainfall was below-average over northeastern South Sudan and pocket areas in southeastern Sudan. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over northern DRC, most of central and eastern parts of CAR, and Chad. Below-average rainfall was observed over Cameroon, northern Congo, and central and eastern DRC. In West Africa, rainfall was above-average over southern Mauritania, much of Senegal excluding western areas, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea and bordering Liberia, most of Sierra Leone, western, central and far eastern Mali, northwestern Cote d Ivoire, most of Burkina Faso, Niger, northern Benin, and northern Nigeria. Below-average rainfall was observed over Liberia, western Senegal, most of Cote d Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, most of Benin, and western and eastern Nigeria.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past 7 days, in East Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Ethiopia, western and northeastern South Sudan, most of Sudan, northwestern Uganda, western Kenya, and isolated localities in southern Somalia. Below-average rainfall was observed over west-central Ethiopia, isolated areas in southern and southeastern Sudan, and over north-central South Sudan. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Chad, southern CAR, and northern DRC. Below-average rainfall was observed in most parts of Cameroon and most of CAR. In West Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over southern Mauritania, southern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, isolated areas in Burkina Faso and Niger, western Mali, and northern Nigeria. Rainfall was below-average over western Senegal, western Sierra Leone, Liberia, most of Cote d Ivoire, southern Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and most of Nigeria.
Atmospheric Circulation: Last 7 Days At 850-hPa level (left panel), stronger than average westerlies from West Africa to borders of Ethiopia contributed to the above average rainfall that expanded to northern-most limits of the Sahel reaching as far as northern Sudan. Stronger than average upper-level easterlies (right panel) across the tropics also contributed to the increased rainfall in the monsoon regions.
NCEP GEFS Model Forecasts Non-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1, Valid: 13 19 August 2024 Week-2, Valid: 20 26 August 2024 For week-1 (left panel), the GEFS forecasts indicate a high chance (over 70%) for rainfall to exceed 100 mm over much of Guinea, Sierra Leone, southern Mali and bordering Cote d Ivoire, and central and northern Ethiopia. Probabilities exceed 80-90% for rainfall to exceed 50mm across the Sahel. For week-2 (right panel), there are moderate to high chances for the weekly total rainfall to exceed 100 mm over Guinea and northern Ethiopia.
Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected locations shows moderate to heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over parts of Guinea (bottom left) and western Ethiopia (top right). Seasonal total rainfall remained below-average over parts of South Sudan (bottom right).
Week-1 Precipitation Outlook 13 19 August 2024 1. The probabilistic forecasts call for above 50% chance for weekly rainfall to be above-normal (above the upper tercile) over southern Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, central and southern Mali, much of Burkina Faso, northern Cote d Ivoire, central and southern Niger, northern Benin, northern Nigeria, central and southern Chad, northern Cameroon, central and southern Sudan, much of CAR, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern and western Ethiopia, northern and central DRC, northern Uganda, and northwestern Kenya. There is above 80% chance for rainfall to be above-normal across southern and eastern Mali, central and southern Niger, southern Chad, central northern South Sudan, western Eritrea, and northern Ethiopia. western and northern northern southern Nigeria, Sudan, and 2. The forecasts call for above 50% chance for weekly total rainfall to be below-normal (below the lower tercile) across eastern Guinea, northern Liberia, northwestern Cote d Ivoire, southern Togo, southern Cameroon, and Equatorial Guinea. There is above 65% chance for rainfall to be below-normal over eastern Guinea, southwestern southwestern Cameroon. southern Nigeria, Ghana, southern Ghana, and
Week-2 Precipitation Outlook 20 26 August 2024 1. The probabilistic forecasts call for above 50% chance for weekly rainfall to be above-normal (above the upper tercile) over much of Guinea, western Sierra Leone, northern Cote d Ivoire, northwestern Ghana, much of Burkina Faso, southern and eastern Mali, southern Niger, northern Nigeria, central and southern Chad, central and southern Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, much of Ethiopia, much of South Sudan, northeastern DR Congo, north and central Uganda, and western Kenya. There is above 80% chance for rainfall to be above-normal across east- central Chad, central Sudan, and northern Ethiopia. 2. The forecasts call for above 50% chance for weekly total rainfall to be below-normal (below the lower tercile) across southern Cote d Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, central and southern Nigeria, much of Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, western CAR, northern and central Gabon, northern and central Congo, and northwestern DR Congo. There is above 80% chance for rainfall to be below-normal over southeastern Nigeria, southwestern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and western Gabon.
Summary Over the past 30 days, in East Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda, western Kenya, and northwestern and parts of southern Somalia. Rainfall was below-average over northeastern South Sudan and pocket areas in southeastern Sudan. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over northern DRC, most of central and eastern parts of CAR, and Chad. Below-average rainfall was observed over Cameroon, northern Congo, and central and eastern DRC. In West Africa, rainfall was above- average over southern Mauritania, much of Senegal excluding western areas, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea and bordering Liberia, most of Sierra Leone, western, central and far eastern Mali, northwestern Cote d Ivoire, most of Burkina Faso, Niger, northern Benin, and northern Nigeria. Below-average rainfall was observed over Liberia, western Senegal, most of Cote d Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, most of Benin, and western and eastern Nigeria. During the past 7 days, in East Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Ethiopia, western and northeastern South Sudan, most of Sudan, northwestern Uganda, western Kenya, and isolated localities in southern Somalia. Below-average rainfall was observed over west-central Ethiopia, isolated areas in southern and southeastern Sudan, and over north-central South Sudan. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Chad, southern CAR, and northern DRC. Below-average rainfall was observed in most parts of Cameroon and most of CAR. In West Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over southern Mauritania, southern Senegal, Guinea- Bissau, Guinea, isolated areas in Burkina Faso and Niger, western Mali, and northern Nigeria. Rainfall was below- average over western Senegal, western Sierra Leone, Liberia, most of Cote d Ivoire, southern Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and most of Nigeria. The Week-1 outlook calls for above-normal rainfall from west to east coasts of Africa including Southern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, northern Liberia, most of Mali excluding the northern parts, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, northern parts of Cote d Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria, northern DRC, CAR, northeastern Congo, South Sudan, southern parts of Sudan, Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, Djibouti, northwestern Somalia, northeastern Uganda, and southwestern Kenya. Enhanced probabilities for weekly rainfall to exceed 100 mm are indicated over West Africa and Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-normal rainfall in the eastern parts of the Gulf Guinea from southern Ghana to western Cameroon. The Week-2 outlook calls for above average rainfall over Guinea, eastern Sierra Leone, eastern Senegal, western Mali, northern Cote d Ivoire, northeastern Nigeria, eastern Chad, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northwestern Kenya, eastern and northeastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti. Below average rainfall is indicated in southeastern Nigeria, most of Cameroon, northern Gabon, northern Congo, western DRC, parts of CAR, and southwestern Ethiopia.