African Monsoon Recent Evolution & Outlook Update
Recent evolution of the African monsoon, including highlights of the past 7 days and last 90 days' rainfall patterns in East Africa, Central Africa, and West Africa. The update provides insights into above-average and below-average rainfall regions, with Week-1 and Week-2 outlooks.
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The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared 26 August 2024 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml
Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP GEFS Forecasts Summary
Highlights: Last 7 Days During the past 7 days, in East Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Eritrea, western and eastern South Sudan, most of Sudan, most of Ethiopia, and over western and eastern Kenya. Below-average rainfall was observed over parts of central and extreme western Ethiopia, parts of southern South Sudan, parts of central Sudan, and most of Uganda. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Chad, western and eastern CAR, parts of northern DRC, and isolated places in extreme western and northeastern Cameroon. Below-average rainfall was observed in most parts of Cameroon, Congo, central CAR, and most of DRC. In West Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over southern Mauritania, most of Senegal, most of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, isolated places in Mali, western and eastern areas in Burkina Faso, southern parts of Niger, northern parts of Cote d Ivoire, most of Ghana, most of Togo, central Benin, and most of Nigeria. Rainfall was below-average over western Mauritania, southwestern Senegal, western Guinea-Bissau, extreme northern Guinea, southern and eastern Mali, parts of central Niger, central Burkina Faso, and parts of northern Nigeria. The Week-1 outlook calls for above-normal rainfall over Sierra Leone, coastal areas of Guinea, central Mali, most of Burkina Faso, most of Niger, northern Nigeria, most of Chad, eastern CAR, most of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, most of Ethiopia, Djibouti, southern Somalia, northern half of Uganda, central parts of DRC, northeastern Tanzania, and central Mozambique. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-normal rainfall over Senegal, across the Gulf of Guinea region from Liberia extending through Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea, over Gabon, northern Congo, southwestern Kenya, and southwestern Ethiopia. The Week-2 outlook calls for above average rainfall across many places in western Africa Sahel, Algeria, Morocco, southern Mauritania, isolated areas in northern Nigeria, eastern half of Cameroon, isolated areas in Chad and CAR, northeastern DRC, and western Ethiopia. There is an increased chance for below- normal rainfall along the Gulf of Guinea coast, central Congo, central DRC, southern and northeastern Uganda, southwestern Ethiopia, and eastern South Sudan.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days Over the past 90 days, in East Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over Sudan, most of South Sudan, Eritrea, most of Ethiopia, Djibouti, western Kenya, isolated places in northwestern and southern Somalia, and northwestern Uganda. Rainfall was below-average over pockets of southeastern South Sudan, most of Somalia, southern and southeastern Ethiopia, and pockets of Uganda. In southern Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over the far southern South Africa, isolated locations in Mozambique, and isolated areas in central and eastern Madagascar. Below-average rainfall was observed along the eastern coastal areas of South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, parts of Mozambique, and most parts of Madagascar. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over parts of northern and eastern CAR, northern parts of DRC, central Congo, most of Gabon, and Chad. Rainfall was below-average over Cameroon, northern Congo, western and northeastern CAR, northern, western and central parts of DRC, and isolated areas in southern Chad. In West Africa, rainfall was above-average over parts of Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, parts of northern Liberia, most of Mali, northwestern Cote d Ivoire, Burkina Faso, southern and northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, most of Niger, and isolated areas in Nigeria. Below-average rainfall was observed over the far western Senegal, southeastern Liberia, southern and central Cote d Ivoire, central Ghana, southern parts of Togo and Benin, and most of Nigeria excluding the northern, central and southwestern portions.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days Over the past 30 days, in East Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, most of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda, western Kenya, and northwestern and pockets of southern Somalia and bordering areas of Kenya. Rainfall was below-average over pockets of western South Sudan and central and far western Ethiopia and bordering Sudan. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over northern DRC, most of central, southern and eastern parts of CAR, and Chad. Below-average rainfall was observed over most of Cameroon, eastern Equatorial Guinea, eastern Gabon, northern Congo, parts of CAR, and western and central DRC. In West Africa, rainfall was above-average over southern Mauritania, southeastern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea and bordering Liberia, most of Sierra Leone, western, central and far eastern Mali, northwestern Cote d Ivoire, most of Burkina Faso, Niger, northeastern Benin, and northern Nigeria. Below-average rainfall was observed over the coasts of Sierra Leone, much of Senegal, southern Cote d Ivoire, eastern Ghana, Togo, most of Benin, and central and most of southern Nigeria.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past 7 days, in East Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Eritrea, western and eastern South Sudan, most of Sudan most of Ethiopia, western and eastern Kenya. Below-average rainfall was observed over parts of central and extreme western Ethiopia, parts of southern South Sudan, parts of central Sudan, and most of Uganda. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Chad, western and eastern CAR, parts of northern DRC, and isolated places in extreme western and northeastern Cameroon. Below-average rainfall was observed in most parts of Cameroon, Congo, central CAR, and most of DRC. In West Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over southern Mauritania, most of Senegal, most of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, isolated places in Mali, western and eastern areas in Burkina Faso, southern parts of Niger, northern parts of Cote d Ivoire, most of Ghana, most of Togo, central Benin, and most of Nigeria. Rainfall was below-average over western Mauritania, southwestern Senegal, western Guinea-Bissau, extreme northern Guinea, southern and eastern Mali, parts of central Niger, central Burkina Faso, and parts of northern Nigeria.
Atmospheric Circulation: Last 7 Days Stronger than average lower level westerlies across the Sahel region (left panel) and stronger than average upper-level easterlies (right panel) across the tropics contributed to the increased rainfall in the monsoon regions of Africa.
NCEP GEFS Model Forecasts Non-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1, Valid: 27 August 02 September 2024 Week-2, Valid: 03 09 September 2024 For week-1 (left panel) and week-2 (right panel), the GEFS forecasts indicate a high chance (over 70%) for rainfall to exceed 50 mm from Guinea to Chad in the west and over the western half of Ethiopia and southern Eritrea in the east.
Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected locations shows moderate to heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over parts of Guinea (bottom left) and western Ethiopia (top right). Seasonal total rainfall remained below-average over parts of eastern Nigeria (bottom right).
Week-1 Precipitation Outlook 27 August 02 September 2024 1. The probabilistic forecasts call for above 50% chance for weekly rainfall to be above-normal (above the upper tercile) over southern Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, central and southern Mali, much of Burkina Faso, northern Benin, central and southern Niger, northern and eastern Nigeria, much of Cameroon, central and southern Chad, western and southeastern CAR, north-central DR Congo, western and eastern Sudan, western South Sudan, western Eritrea, and northern Ethiopia. There is above 80% chance for rainfall to be above-normal over southern Cameroon, east-central Chad, and west-central Sudan. 2. The forecasts call for above 50% chance for weekly total rainfall to be below-normal (below the lower tercile) across much of Sierra Leone, eastern Guinea, Liberia, much of Cote d Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Nigeria, eastern Gabon, and central Congo. There is above 65% chance for rainfall to be below- normal over eastern Liberia, and western Cote d Ivoire.
Week-2 Precipitation Outlook 03 09 September 2024 1. The probabilistic forecasts call for above 50% chance for weekly rainfall to be above-normal (above the upper tercile) over much of Senegal, The Gambia, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau, much of Guinea, northern Sierra Leone, central and southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Cote d Ivoire, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, northern Nigeria, central and southern Niger, central and southern Chad, central and southern Sudan, much of Eritrea, much of Ethiopia, much of South Sudan, much of Uganda, western Kenya, western and southern CAR, northern Congo, and northern and central DR Congo. There is above 80% chance for rainfall to be above-normal over southeastern Niger, central Chad, west-central Sudan, and northern DR Congo. 2. The forecasts call for above 50% chance for weekly total rainfall to be below-normal (below the lower tercile) across Liberia, central and southern Cote d Ivoire, much of Ghana, much of Togo, much of Benin, central and southern Nigeria, western Equatorial Guinea, northern Gabon, and northwestern Congo. There is above 80% chance for rainfall to be below-normal over southern southern Nigeria, and southwestern Cameroon. and central Cameroon, Ghana, western and
Summary Over the past 30 days, in East Africa, above-average rainfall was observed over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, most of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda, western Kenya, and northwestern and pockets of southern Somalia and bordering areas of Kenya. Rainfall was below-average over pockets of western South Sudan and central and far western Ethiopia and bordering Sudan. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over northern DRC, most of central, southern and eastern parts of CAR, and Chad. Below-average rainfall was observed over most of Cameroon, eastern Equatorial Guinea, eastern Gabon, northern Congo, parts of CAR, and western and central DRC. In West Africa, rainfall was above-average over southern Mauritania, southeastern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea and bordering Liberia, most of Sierra Leone, western, central and far eastern Mali, northwestern Cote d Ivoire, most of Burkina Faso, Niger, northeastern Benin, and northern Nigeria. Below-average rainfall was observed over the coasts of Sierra Leone, much of Senegal, southern Cote d Ivoire, eastern Ghana, Togo, most of Benin, and central and most of southern Nigeria. During the past 7 days, in East Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Eritrea, western and eastern South Sudan, most of Sudan, most of Ethiopia, and over western and eastern Kenya. Below-average rainfall was observed over parts of central and extreme western Ethiopia, parts of southern South Sudan, parts of central Sudan, and most of Uganda. In Central Africa, rainfall was above-average over most of Chad, western and eastern CAR, parts of northern DRC, and isolated places in extreme western and northeastern Cameroon. Below-average rainfall was observed in most parts of Cameroon, Congo, central CAR, and most of DRC. In West Africa, above- average rainfall was observed over southern Mauritania, most of Senegal, most of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, isolated places in Mali, western and eastern areas in Burkina Faso, southern parts of Niger, northern parts of Cote d Ivoire, most of Ghana, most of Togo, central Benin, and most of Nigeria. Rainfall was below-average over western Mauritania, southwestern Senegal, western Guinea-Bissau, extreme northern Guinea, southern and eastern Mali, parts of central Niger, central Burkina Faso, and parts of northern Nigeria. The Week-1 outlook calls for above-normal rainfall over Sierra Leone, coastal areas of Guinea, central Mali, most of Burkina Faso, most of Niger, northern Nigeria, most of Chad, eastern CAR, most of South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, most of Ethiopia, Djibouti, southern Somalia, northern half of Uganda, central parts of DRC, northeastern Tanzania, and central Mozambique. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-normal rainfall over Senegal, across the Gulf of Guinea region from Liberia extending through Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea, over Gabon, northern Congo, southwestern Kenya, and southwestern Ethiopia. The Week-2 outlook calls for above average rainfall across many places in western Africa Sahel, Algeria, Morocco, southern Mauritania, isolated areas in northern Nigeria, eastern half of Cameroon, isolated areas in Chad and CAR, northeastern DRC, and western Ethiopia. There is an increased chance for below-normal rainfall along the Gulf of Guinea coast, central Congo, central DRC, southern and northeastern Uganda, southwestern Ethiopia, and eastern South Sudan.
