Alaska Financial Overview with Revenue and Budget Data

Alaskas Financial Situation Alaska s Financial Situation Representative Gary Knopp

Unrestricted General Fund Revenue/ Budget History (millions) 12,000.0 Permanent Fund POMV DOR Spring 2019 Revenue Forecast Statewide Operating Agency Operations 10,000.0 8,000.0 6,000.0 4,000.0 2,000.0 - August 2019 Legislative Finance Division 2

Unrestricted General Fund Revenue/ Budget History (millions) 12,000.0 Permanent Fund POMV DOR Spring 2019 Revenue Forecast Capital Budget Statewide Operating 10,000.0 Agency Operations 8,000.0 6,000.0 4,000.0 2,000.0 - August 2019 Legislative Finance Division 3

Unrestricted General Fund Revenue/ Budget History ($ millions) $11,000 Permanent Fund POMV DOR Spring 2019 Revenue Forecast $10,000 Net Fund Transfers $9,000 Capital Budget Statewide Operating $8,000 Agency Operations $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 -$1,000 -$2,000 -$3,000 -$4,000 August 2019 Legislative Finance Division 4

Production Alaska North Slope Cook Inlet Total Alaska Price Alaska North Slope FY05 911.3 20.3 931.6 FY05 $ 44.85 FY07 734.2 16.1 750.3 FY07 $ 61.60 FY08 715.4 13.9 729.3 FY08 $ 96.51 FY11 599.9 10.4 610.3 FY11 $ 94.49 FY12 579.3 10.7 590.0 FY12 $ 112.65 FY13 531.6 12.2 543.8 FY13 $ 107.57 FY14 530.3 16.3 546.6 FY14 $ 107.57 FY15 500.9 18.3 519.2 FY15 $ 72.58 FY16 514.7 16.6 531.3 FY16 $ 43.18 FY18 518.3 15.7 534.0 FY18 $ 63.61

GF Revenue (Millions) 12,000.0 10,000.0 8,000.0 6,000.0 10,749.0 9,485.2 4,000.0 7,672.9 6,928.5 5,401.5 5,148.5 2,000.0 3,188.5 2,361.6 2,244.5 1,532.7 1,353.9 - FY 05 FY 07 FY 08 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 Revenue 3,188.5 5,148.5 10,749.0 7,672.9 9,485.2 6,928.5 5,401.5 2,244.5 1,532.7 1,353.9 2,361.6

7,000.0 Operating Budget GF Spending (Millions) Statewide Op. Agency Op. 6,000.0 2,044.6 5,000.0 1,402.9 926.4 1,249.6 1,140.1 1,052.1 430.4 483.6 484.1 4,000.0 961.6 196.7 3,000.0 73.5 4,475.8 4,394.2 4,308.3 4,171.8 4,146.3 2,000.0 3,972.5 3,906.0 3,850.3 3,813.1 3,149.6 2,986.3 2,392.7 1,000.0 - FY 05 73.5 2,392.7 2,986.3 3,149.6 3,813.1 4,146.3 4,308.3 4,394.2 4,475.8 4,171.8 3,972.5 3,850.3 3,906.0 FY 07 196.7 FY 08 961.6 FY 11 1,052.1 1,249.6 1,402.9 2,044.6 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 926.4 FY 16 1,140.1 FY 17 430.4 FY 18 484.1 FY 19 483.6 Statewide Op. Agency Op.

Capital Budget GF Budget Spending (Millions) 2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 2,071.5 1,000.0 1,616.8 500.0 880.4 818.0 614.6 611.4 16.6 163.0 140.4 127.6 - FY 11 818.0 FY 12 614.6 FY 13 1,616.8 FY 14 2,071.5 FY 15 880.4 FY 16 611.4 FY 17 127.6 FY 18 140.4 FY 19 163.0 FY 20 16.6 Amount

Components of Our Oil Revenue 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Other UGF Revenue 339.0 18.8 501.1 11.9 667.1 29.2 576.5 19.4 638.7 27.4 556.7 26.1 692.4 30.3 477.4 4.8 536.4 35.8 Bonuses, Rents, interest Royalties 25.5 14.4 8.0 22.0 8.9 1,401.0 863.2 1,772.2 1,199.6 1,583.8 2,208.4 2,420.6 6,810.9 1,451.2 3,100.9 1,469.0 2,860.7 1,821.3 4,543.2 2,022.8 6,136.7 1,748.4 4,042.5 1,685.0 2,605.9 1,052.0 381.6 840.3 176.8 676.2 125.9 878.9 645.9 Production Tax Corporation Petroleum Income Tax 524.0 42.5 661.1 54.5 594.4 65.6 605.8 81.5 492.2 111.2 446.1 118.8 542.1 110.6 568.8 111.2 434.6 99.3 307.6 128.1 94.8 125.2 (58.8) 111.7 (59.4) 120.4 115.0 116.7 Petroleum Property Tax

How much does oil pay for? 100% 627.4 793.1 624 576.5 339 638.7 667.1 90% 536.4 556.7 423.2 477.4 80% 70% 60% 50% 8857.8 9956 7048.9 6352 2849.5 4762.8 4481.4 40% 1801 1687.8 1109.5 876.5 30% 20% 10% 0% FY05 339 2849.5 FY07 667.1 4481.4 FY08 793.1 9956 FY11 624 7048.9 FY12 627.4 8857.8 FY13 576.5 6352 FY14 638.7 4762.8 FY15 556.7 1687.8 FY16 423.2 1109.5 FY17 477.4 876.5 FY18 536.4 1801 Other UGF Revenue Total Unrestricted Petroleum Revenue

GF Revenue vs. GF Expenditure 12000 10749.1 10000 9485.2 7782.7 7672.9 8000 7319.2 7012.7 6928.5 6013.6 5513.3 5831.2 6000 5515.9 5479.7 5439.5 5401.5 5341.0 5148.5 5095.6 4699.9 4543.3 4489 4200.4 4186.5 4000 3290.5 3188.5 2646.4 2361.6 2337.6 2244.5 2000 1532.7 1353.9 0 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Total UGF Revenue 3188.5 4200.4 5148.5 10749.1 5831.2 5513.3 7672.9 9485.2 6928.5 5401.5 2244.5 1532.7 1353.9 2361.6 2337.6 Total UGF Budget 2646.4 3290.5 4186.5 5341.0 5515.9 5095.6 5479.7 7012.7 7782.7 7319.2 6013.6 5439.5 4543.3 4489 4699.9 Total UGF Revenue Total UGF Budget

18,000 EOY Reserves Balances ($Millions) 16,000 2,790 14,000 4,710 5,200 12,000 290 10,000 8,000 290 12,800 6,000 11,600 10,600 10,200 270 4,000 6,800 170 170 4,400 2,000 2,400 1,900 0 FY 12 5,200 10,600 FY 13 4,710 11,600 FY 14 2,790 12,800 FY 15 290 10,200 FY 16 290 6,800 FY 17 270 4,400 FY 18 170 2,400 FY 19 170 1,900 SBR CBR

EOY Reserve Balances w/ ERA ($Millions) 25,000 20,000 6,200 4,100 15,000 2,790 7,200 4,710 9,300 19,000 11,400 290 10,000 12,400 290 12,800 11,600 10,200 5,000 270 6,800.00 170 4400 170 2,400.00 1900 0 FY 13 4,100 4,710 11,600 FY 14 6,200 2,790 12,800 FY 15 7,200 290 10,200 FY 16 9,300 290 6,800.00 FY 17 11,400 270 4400 FY 18 12,400 170 2,400.00 FY 19 19,000 170 1900 ERA SBR CBR

Agency Operations Comparisons (Nominal and Inflation Adjusted Comparisons) UGF Only AGENCY OPERATIONS Nominal $ (Unrestricted General Funds) AGENCY OPERATIONS Nominal $ Unrestricted General Funds AGENCY OPERATIONS 2018 Inflation Adjusted $ Unrestricted General Funds Departments FY05 to FY20 FY15 to FY20 FY19 to FY20 FY05 to FY20 FY15 to FY20 FY19 to FY20 Administration 31,504.8 75.5% (12,822.2) -14.9% 690.3 1.0% 15,283.1 27.9% (19,419.7) -21.7% (900.4) -1.3% Commerce, Community & Econ Dev 673.3 8.6% (31,931.8) -78.9% (1,579.1) -15.6% (2,151.1) -20.9% (33,906.7) -80.6% (1,727.8) -17.5% Corrections 143,959.8 92.5% 1,982.3 0.7% 8,528.7 2.9% 82,257.6 40.3% (22,861.4) -7.4% 1,892.6 0.7% Education & Early Dev 494,779.2 59.6% (83,694.8) -5.9% 3,218.1 0.2% 177,522.6 16.3% (197,239.3) -13.5% (25,372.5) -2.0% Environmental Conservation 3,934.1 34.2% (7,038.6) -31.3% 41.7 0.3% (332.1) -2.2% (8,601.4) -36.8% (291.4) -1.9% Fish and Game 21,951.7 71.0% (26,499.5) -33.4% 1,305.0 2.5% 9,979.8 24.6% (31,949.2) -38.7% 138.1 0.3% Governor 4,871.0 25.5% (9,668.4) -28.8% (3,742.1) -13.5% (2,131.8) -8.5% (12,043.1) -34.5% (4,175.0) -15.4% Health & Social Services 508,516.6 95.8% (214,582.2) -17.1% (107,665.1) -9.4% 297,454.7 42.7% (309,515.0) -23.7% (127,657.4) -11.4% Labor & Workforce Dev 7,066.4 51.3% (12,594.6) -37.7% 156.2 0.8% 1,849.3 10.2% (14,828.5) -42.6% (296.0) -1.5% Law 20,201.9 65.0% (10,004.3) -16.3% (318.8) -0.6% 8,258.9 20.3% (14,665.4) -23.0% (1,415.2) -2.8% Military & Veterans' Affairs 9,479.2 132.6% (7,559.8) -31.3% (340.1) -2.0% 6,520.3 69.5% (9,242.7) -36.8% (690.5) -4.2% Natural Resources 16,810.8 34.9% (23,031.8) -26.2% (113.5) -0.2% (1,095.6) -1.7% (29,354.8) -32.1% (1,510.7) -2.4% Public Safety 88,532.1 105.2% 1,169.8 0.7% 11,014.6 6.8% 54,698.5 49.5% (13,150.1) -7.4% 7,055.1 4.5% Revenue 14,063.1 122.8% (8,312.7) -24.6% 231.3 0.9% 9,371.7 62.3% (10,764.8) -30.6% (323.0) -1.3% Transportation 43,347.4 43.8% (136,373.0) -48.9% (37,757.2) -21.0% 6,248.2 4.8% (153,610.3) -53.0% (39,987.3) -22.7% University of Alaska 93,700.3 41.0% (48,566.2) -13.1% (5,000.0) -1.5% 8,312.9 2.8% (77,277.0) -20.1% (11,820.4) -3.7% Executive Branch-wide Approps - #DIV/0! (27,000.0) -100.0% - #DIV/0! - #DIV/0! (28,070.5) -100.0% - #DIV/0! Judiciary 48,855.2 83.1% (4,193.9) -3.7% 2,227.5 2.1% 25,784.0 33.4% (13,315.9) -11.4% (138.7) -0.1% Legislature 22,884.1 55.5% (13,492.8) -17.4% (3.2) 0.0% 7,200.7 13.3% (19,361.7) -24.0% (1,383.2) -2.2% TOTAL 1,575,131.0 70.0% (674,214.5) -15.0% (129,105.7) -3.3% 705,031.6 23.9% (1,019,177.4) -21.8% (208,603.5) -5.4% Cost per Alaskan Alaska's Population (2018-2020 are Projections) 1,843.5 54.6% (887.3) -14.5% (165.1) -3.1% 561.8 12.7% (1,356.4) -21.4% (273.8) -5.2% 66,179.0 9.9% (3,858.0) -0.5% (1,492.0) -0.2% 66,179.0 9.9% (3,858.0) -0.5% (1,492.0) -0.2%

Agency Operations Comparisons (Nominal and Inflation Adjusted Comparisons) General Funds (UGF and DGF) AGENCY OPERATIONS Nominal $ (General Funds) AGENCY OPERATIONS Nominal $ (General Funds) AGENCY OPERATIONS 2018 Inflation Adjusted $ (General Funds) Departments FY05 to FY20 FY15 to FY20 FY19 to FY20 FY05 to FY20 FY15 to FY20 FY19 to FY20 Administration 50,726.8 90.5% (4,708.4) -4.2% 1,287.4 1.2% 28,557.4 38.8% (13,776.8) -11.9% (1,039.0) -1.0% Commerce, Community & Econ Dev 28,235.6 46.6% (35,967.1) -28.8% (33,399.4) -27.3% 5,418.0 6.8% (44,784.2) -34.5% (34,576.8) -28.9% Corrections 147,683.5 91.4% 4,854.1 1.6% 9,639.4 3.2% 83,707.9 39.5% (20,678.6) -6.5% 2,771.2 0.9% Education & Early Dev 518,380.3 62.3% (77,008.5) -5.4% 1,857.9 0.1% 199,551.6 18.3% (192,378.1) -13.0% (27,243.6) -2.1% Environmental Conservation 11,839.1 41.1% (4,182.8) -9.3% 356.3 0.9% 1,057.9 2.8% (7,731.2) -16.6% (526.7) -1.3% Fish and Game 28,348.4 73.0% (21,235.5) -24.0% (48.5) -0.1% 13,289.9 26.1% (27,664.4) -30.1% (1,493.0) -2.3% Governor 2,979.6 14.2% (9,668.4) -28.8% (3,742.1) -13.5% (4,614.4) -16.8% (12,043.1) -34.5% (4,175.0) -15.4% Health & Social Services 556,209.6 94.9% (190,113.5) -14.3% (91,856.1) -7.4% 323,369.2 42.1% (292,645.0) -21.1% (114,413.4) -9.5% Labor & Workforce Dev 21,627.2 60.7% (11,023.7) -16.1% 807.9 1.4% 7,992.9 17.1% (16,224.4) -22.9% (442.4) -0.8% Law 21,248.6 64.5% (9,824.5) -15.4% (293.3) -0.5% 8,597.4 19.9% (14,720.4) -22.1% (1,452.8) -2.7% Military & Veterans' Affairs 9,179.2 122.7% (7,559.8) -31.2% (340.1) -2.0% 6,116.4 62.3% (9,245.1) -36.7% (691.1) -4.2% Natural Resources 34,282.1 51.7% (14,282.2) -12.4% 1,080.3 1.1% 9,188.8 10.6% (23,212.5) -19.4% (1,107.6) -1.1% Public Safety 92,040.2 103.2% 3,114.8 1.7% 11,214.3 6.6% 56,276.0 48.1% (11,835.0) -6.4% 7,067.5 4.3% Revenue 9,101.0 47.8% (7,141.3) -20.2% 255.5 0.9% 1,924.9 7.7% (9,765.1) -26.6% (355.7) -1.3% Transportation 45,108.1 23.3% (108,074.4) -31.2% (40,111.9) -14.4% (25,792.3) -10.2% (132,213.2) -36.7% (44,366.2) -16.3% University of Alaska 187,734.2 40.3% (33,435.6) -4.9% (4,307.1) -0.7% 13,577.2 2.2% (89,146.0) -12.5% (18,283.8) -2.8% Executive Branch-wide Approps - #DIV/0! (27,000.0) -100.0% - #DIV/0! - #DIV/0! (28,070.5) -100.0% - #DIV/0! Judiciary 49,373.2 83.9% (4,193.9) -3.7% 2,227.5 2.1% 26,279.5 34.0% (13,358.9) -11.4% (149.8) -0.1% Legislature 23,112.9 55.9% (13,231.5) -17.0% 3.4 0.0% 7,384.4 13.6% (19,117.3) -23.7% (1,383.8) -2.2% TOTAL 1,837,209.6 65.7% (570,682.2) -11.0% (145,368.6) -3.0% 761,882.6 20.8% (978,609.9) -18.1% (241,862.1) -5.2% Cost per Alaskan Alaska's Population (2018-2020 are Projections) 2,127.2 50.8% (741.1) -10.5% (185.0) -2.8% 542.7 9.9% (1,295.9) -17.7% (316.9) -5.0% 66,179.0 9.9% (3,858.0) -0.5% (1,492.0) -0.2% 66,179.0 9.9% (3,858.0) -0.5% (1,492.0) -0.2%

Agency Operations Comparisons Agency Operations Comparisons (Nominal and Inflation Adjusted Comparisons) (Nominal and Inflation Adjusted Comparisons) All Funds (Non All Funds (Non- -Duplicated) Duplicated) AGENCY OPERATIONS Nominal $ (All Funds--Non-Duplicated) AGENCY OPERATIONS Nominal $ (All Funds--Non-Duplicated) AGENCY OPERATIONS 2018 Inflation Adjusted $ (All Funds--Non-Duplicated) Departments FY05 to FY20 FY15 to FY20 FY19-FY20 FY03 to FY20 FY15 to FY20 FY19-FY20 Administration 81,025.8 95.9% 6,546.6 4.1% 9,426.5 6.0% 47,421.7 42.8% (6,958.5) -4.2% 5,657.6 3.7% Commerce, Community & Econ Dev 48,606.2 52.1% (31,191.5) -18.0% (28,105.6) -16.5% 13,265.3 10.8% (44,231.6) -24.6% (30,541.1) -18.4% Corrections 152,657.6 90.4% 11,172.7 3.6% 13,690.1 4.4% 85,882.3 38.7% (15,126.6) -4.7% 6,469.6 2.1% Education & Early Dev 622,182.1 60.7% (38,493.8) -2.3% 6,523.0 0.4% 229,812.2 17.1% (177,092.1) -10.1% (29,086.4) -1.8% Environmental Conservation 26,564.6 52.9% (3,910.4) -4.8% 1,073.0 1.4% 7,540.3 11.4% (10,448.5) -12.5% (602.2) -0.8% Fish and Game 51,013.8 39.0% (5,339.9) -2.9% 2,865.6 1.6% 2,179.9 1.3% (20,682.4) -10.6% (1,112.4) -0.6% Governor 2,958.3 13.9% (9,638.8) -28.5% (3,743.1) -13.4% (4,723.9) -17.0% (12,031.3) -34.2% (4,180.9) -15.3% Health & Social Services 1,489,956.1 93.5% 473,041.0 18.1% (71,422.3) -2.3% 857,938.2 41.0% 235,394.3 8.7% (136,192.0) -4.4% Labor & Workforce Dev (486.9) -0.4% (30,225.6) -18.3% 2,386.3 1.8% (48,644.6) -27.4% (42,636.9) -24.8% (567.4) -0.4% Law 21,809.6 58.3% (9,504.6) -13.8% (276.0) -0.5% 7,534.4 15.3% (14,808.1) -20.7% (1,544.6) -2.7% Military & Veterans' Affairs 4,323.0 9.0% 405.0 0.8% 764.4 1.5% (12,881.6) -20.5% (3,913.1) -7.3% (373.8) -0.7% Natural Resources 52,098.0 53.3% (13,501.6) -8.3% 1,282.7 0.9% 15,010.7 11.7% (26,503.2) -15.6% (1,971.0) -1.4% Public Safety 103,918.9 100.7% 17,986.7 9.5% 20,319.2 10.9% 62,657.7 46.3% 1,475.4 0.8% 15,415.4 8.4% Revenue 224,904.5 142.3% 28,760.9 8.1% 5,915.5 1.6% 158,849.3 76.6% (1,947.5) -0.5% (2,455.2) -0.7% Transportation 84,102.0 31.9% (88,420.1) -20.3% (41,429.2) -10.6% (13,407.1) -3.9% (120,841.7) -26.7% (47,999.2) -12.6% University of Alaska 205,229.6 34.8% (44,245.9) -5.3% (7,930.0) -1.0% (13,991.8) -1.8% (112,188.1) -12.8% (24,880.9) -3.2% Executive Branch-wide Approps - #DIV/0! (27,000.0) -100.0% - #DIV/0! - #DIV/0! (28,070.5) -100.0% - #DIV/0! Judiciary 50,142.0 83.8% (4,284.8) -3.8% 2,227.5 2.1% 26,654.7 33.9% (13,601.5) -11.5% (188.2) -0.2% Legislature 23,112.9 55.9% (13,231.5) -17.0% 3.4 0.0% 7,384.4 13.6% (19,117.3) -23.7% (1,383.8) -2.2% TOTAL 3,244,118.1 69.0% 218,924.4 2.8% (86,429.0) -1.1% 1,428,481.8 23.1% (433,329.1) -5.4% (255,536.6) -3.3% Cost per Alaskan Alaska's Population (2018-2020 are Projections) 3,787.8 53.7% 353.7 3.4% (95.6) -0.9% 1,113.1 12.0% (533.6) -4.9% (326.7) -3.1% 66,179.0 9.9% (3,858.0) -0.5% (1,492.0) -0.2% 66,179.0 9.9% (6,503.0) -0.9% (1,492.0) -0.2%