Alberta Physician Workforce Planning Strategies and Processes

Alberta Physician Workforce Planning 2014 Rollie Nichol MD, MBA Associate Chief Medical Officer, AHS January 8, 2014

Agenda 1. Introduction and Goal of interaction 2. Curiosity What do you want to know? 3. Goal of workforce planning 4. Alberta Process 5. Provincial PRPC 6. AHS Data 7. Summary 8. Questions/dialogue 2

Goal of Provincial Workforce Planning 1. Predict and define Demand Short and long term Scenarios 2. Predict and define endogenous supply Manage societal investment Collaborate with faculties Minimize market asynchrony 3

Alberta Process 1. Provincial PRPC (Physician Resource Planning Committee) Episodic (past) Sustainable (current) 2. Alberta Health Services Service provider and recruiter (appointed docs) 3. Faculties Curriculum, training and recruiting 4

PRPC 1. Provincial perspective 2. Multi- stakeholder 3. Policy level 4. Government funder of training programs 5. 2 software planning tools Family physician (AH) Specialist (AHS) 6. Alignment with Non-MD Workforce and Capital Planning 5

Practitioner Workforce Planning in Alberta Government of Alberta College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta Royal College of Physician and Surgeons Canada Academic & Clinical Training CMA University of Alberta & University of Calgary IMG Practice Entry Alberta Medical Association PARA Medical School Enrolment Community Practice Specialist Practice Residents Training in Alberta Remote Area Practice Alberta Trained Undergrads Training elsewhere Nursing and Allied Health Providers Rural Physician Action Plan Alberta Health Services Rural Practice Municipalities 6

AHS Data 7

2012 Alberta Physician Demographics Family Medicine Physicians Specialists Physicians per 100,000 Population Physicians per 100,000 Population Percentage Canadian Trained Total 2012 Average Age Percentage Female Percentage Canadian Trained Total 2012 Average Age Percentage Female Region Alberta 4326 112 48.5 40.3% 60.6% 4204 48.3 48.3 30.2% 74.8% Canada 38156 109 50.1 42.4% 72.9% 36986 50.8 50.8 32.2% 77.3% Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information: Supply, distribution and migration of Canadian Physicians, 2012 8

Recent Recruiting Experience 30-Sep-12 30-Sep-13 Net Change 476 484 8 South Zone 3578 3815 237 Calgary Zone 600 620 20 Central Zone 3260 3379 119 Edmonton Zone 464 471 7 North Zone 8378 8769 391 Alberta 9

3 Year Projection TOTAL Medical Staff Workforce Forecast By Department and Zone (2013-2016) Total # Physicians to be Recruited - ALL ZONES Department Addictions and Mental Health 83.0 Anesthesia 25.0 Cardiac Sciences 22.0 Clinical Neurosciences 36.0 Critical Care Medicine 15.0 Diagnostic Imaging 31.0 Emergency Medicine 88.0 Family Medicine Family Medicine with Special Skills (eg Anesthesia, Obstetrics, Surgery) 421.5 18.0 10

3 Year Projection TOTAL Medical Staff Workforce Forecast By Department and Zone (2013-2016) Total # Physicians to be Recruited - ALL ZONES Department Medicine/Internal Medicine 119.0 Obstetrics & Gynecology/ Women's Health 22.0 Oncology 29.0 Pathology and Laboratory Medicine 39.0 Pediatrics/Child Health 70.0 Rural Medicine 76.0 Surgery 135.0 TOTAL 1229.5 11

Summary 1. We need better forecasting methodologies 2. We need to be better at planning Accounting for changes in technology, service planning, societal needs 3. We need to give better information to you but this is only one, albeit significant, factor in your decision process 12

Dilbert 13

LINKS http://www.albertaphysicianlink.ab.ca/physician-jobs.html http://www.doctorjobsalberta.com/ http://www.cma.ca/c3pr-specialties http://www.cair.ca/en/tips/ 14

Final Slide 1. Review questions posed at beginning 2. Any other questions/ comments/ curious thoughts 15

2012 Alberta Physician Demographics Family Medicine Physicians Specialists Physicians per 100,000 Population Physicians per 100,000 Population Percentage Canadian Trained Total 2012 Averag e Age Percentage Female Percentage Canadian Trained Total 2012 Averag e Age Percentag e Female Region Calgary Zone 1747 120 48.6 49.1% 66.7% 1867 128 48 32.9% 79.8% Central Zone Edmonton Zone 428 92 50 25.0% 42.1% 166 36 50.1 19.3% 66.3% 1468 120 48.6 39.5% 65.1% 1875 153 48.2 30.1% 73.6% North Zone 377 85 47 27.3% 33.1% 101 23 49 20.8% 43.6% South Zone 287 100 47.8 30.3% 64.8% 186 65 52.3 16.7% 61.6% Unknown 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A Alberta 4326 112 48.5 40.3% 60.6% 4204 48.3 48.3 30.2% 74.8% Canada 38156 109 50.1 42.4% 72.9% 36986 50.8 50.8 32.2% 77.3% Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information: Supply, distribution and migration of Canadian Physicians, 2012 16

Specialist Forecasting Tool (Need) Population (Growth, Aging, Gender, Referral, Geography) Disease incidence & prevalence Leadership and Admin Standards, Policy, CPGs Clinical Programs NEED ASSESSMENT Utilization / Demand Academic Programs Access 17

Specialist Forecasting Tool (Supply) Roster Profile (Clinical & Academic) FTE and Productivity Benchmarks Physician Supply (current) Separations (Retire, leave, change) Age and Gender Specialty & Special Interest Net Inter- Provincial Migration 18