Amendment & Results Caribbean Fishery Management Council 150th Meeting
Public hearing results and proposed actions from the Caribbean Fishery Management Council's 150th meeting held in August 2014 in Rio Grande, Puerto Rico, focusing on adjusting buffer reduction to reflect changes in overfishing status and establishing control rules for annual catch limits.
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Title of Program Goes Here Investment Program Update November 7, 2022 12 PM EST
Presenters Liana Kingsbury Director, Nonprofit Agency Funds Deborah Ellwood President & CEO Brendon Reay Vice President, Investments
Questions Please use the Q & A feature to ask questions during the webinar. After the webinar, please contact: Brendon Reay: breay@mainecf.org Liana Kingsbury: lkingsbury@mainecf.org
M MaineCF Goal; Return and Risk The long-term investment objective of the Maine Community Foundation is to preserve and enhance the real value of the assets of the foundation over time, in order to provide a sufficient rate of return for fulfilling its philanthropic purposes. Mix of investments aims to return at least 5%, net of inflation Two kinds of risk: Fluctuations in the value of investments ( volatility ). Normal. Permanent loss of capital. Diversification. Due Diligence. We are and we will remain a vigilant, long-term investor focused on safeguarding and growing the assets you have entrusted to us.
Investment Performance (annualized, as of 09/30/22) 10% 7.7% 7.3% 7.1% 7.0% 6.1% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -16.3% -20% -25% -30% 2022 YTD 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year Since Inception (12/93) Primary Pool InvMetrics All E&F $250mm-$1B Benchmark 60% MSCI ACWI/40% BBG Agg Bond Index CPI-U
Comparative CF Performance Community Foundation Performance - Crewcial FAOG Survey (as of 06/30/22) Year to Date Latest 3 Years Latest 5 Years Latest 10 Years Latest 20 Years 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% All Participants (n = 129) MaineCF Primary Pool $ 500 Million and Over (n = 20) $ 250.0 Million to $ 499.9 Million5 (n = 13) Based on survey data provided by the Council on Foundations
Asset Allocation TARGET ALLOCATION ALLOCATION 09/30/22 Cash & Fixed Income 15% Cash & Fixed Income 15% Real Assets 0% Real Assets 3% Listed Global Equity 37% Private Equity / Venture Capital 10% Listed Global Equity 50% Private Equity / Venture Capital 18% Marketable Alternatives 25% Marketable Alternatives 27%
Performance Market Returns 0.5% 0.2% -0.4% 3Q-22 -1.6% -2.2% -2.5% -3.6% -3.9% -4.6% -4.8% -4.8% -4.9% -5.1% -5.6% -6.2% -6.7% -9.3% -9.7% -11.4% Return (%) 0.6% -4.4% YTD 2022* (SORTED) -13.6% -13.8%-14.6% -17.8% -19.7%-20.7% -21.2% -21.5% -23.9%-25.1%-25.3%-26.8% -26.9% -29.3%-30.7%-31.8% -32.0% Russell 2000 G 90 Days T-Bill MSCI Em Mkts NASDAQ Russell 1000 V Russell 2000 V MSCI ACWI Russell 1000 G Bloomberg U.S. Agg. Russell 2000 MSCI EAFE SC S&P 400 Midcap DJIA S&P 500 MSCI EAFE Bloomberg U.S. TIPS S&P 500-Eq. Wgt. CSFB High Yield BofA ML 1-3 Yr TSY *Data as of 9/30/2022 September 30, 2022 Monticello Associates, Inc. 8 Source: Bloomberg and Monticello Associates V.10.31.2022 PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL please refer to the legal disclaimer on the last page of this document
Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide Since 1926, there have been 37 quarters (10% of the total) in which returns on equities and on bonds were negative. During that same period, there have been only 2 calendar years when equities and bonds were both down: 1931 and 1969 (2018 was a near-miss). If the current situation persists, 2022 will have the very dubious distinction of being #3 during that time. S&P500: -23.9% YTD (as of 9/30) Bloomberg Agg: -14.6% YTD (9/30)
Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide 50% S&P 500 BBG U.S. Bond Agg. 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 77 81 86 90 95 99 04 08 13 17 22
Near-Term Outlook We re in a bear market. Historical average length: 19 months. We re 9 months in. Near-term relief? Maybe: midterm elections Recession? Probably. When? How severe?
S&P 500 Index Bull, Bear, and Return Concentration S&P 500 Index: Bull & Bear Markets* Daily Total Return Calculations Large-Cap Stocks: Historical Performance Concentration Concentration in Top 1%, 5% and 10% - Monthly Returns 12% Total Return; 10.1% Bull Markets Bear Markets Begin Date Jun-28 Jun-32 Apr-42 Jun-49 Oct-57 Jun-62 Oct-66 May-70 Oct-74 Aug-82 Dec-87 Oct-90 Oct-02 Mar-09 Mar-20 Averages Return 73% 344% 217% 488% 114% 103% 58% 89% 204% 304% 81% 545% 121% 528% 120% 226% Duration (M) Market Peak 15 57 49 86 50 43 26 32 74 60 31 113 60 131 21 57 Return -86% -51% -25% -20% -27% -20% -33% -45% -20% -33% -19% -47% -55% -34% -24% -36% Duration (M) 32 62 36 15 6 8 18 21 20 3 3 31 17 1 9 19 10% Sep-29 Mar-37 May-46 Aug-56 Dec-61 Feb-66 Nov-68 Jan-73 Nov-80 Aug-87 Jul-90 Mar-00 Oct-07 Feb-20 Jan-22 -- Ex-Top 1% T. Ret.; 7.7% Annualized Performance 8% 6% Ex-Top 5% T. Ret.; 2.9% 4% 2% 0% -2% Ex-Top 10% T. Ret., -1.5% -4% Since 1926 On June 13, 2022, the S&P 500 index correction morphed into a bear market, when the index fell 21% from its January 3, 2022 record high. As of September 30th, the index has declined ~24%. Bear markets defined as peak-to-trough declines of 20% or more have been shorter and less impactful compared to bull markets since 1928. The annualized performance for large cap stocks since 1926 was 10.1%, but to achieve these returns, investors had to be willing to accept risk and potential declines. Missing out on rebounds can be worse than holding on through bear market declines. * 2022 bear market started on 1/3/2022, data through 9/30/2022 Source: Bloomberg, Morningstar and Monticello Associates September 30, 2022 Monticello Associates, Inc. 12 V.10.31.2022 PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL please refer to the legal disclaimer on the last page of this document
S&P 500 Index Performance Midterm Elections 12 Months Period Following Midterm Election Years 1942-2018 Avg. Monthly Perf. During Midterm Election Years 1942-2018 Performance 1-Yr After Election Average Avg. 1Q: 1.5% Avg. 2Q: -0.7% Avg. 3Q: 0.5% Avg. 4Q: 7.7% 45% 4% 2.9% 3% 40% 2.5% Avg. Monthly Total Return 2.3% 3% 35% 1-Year After Election 2% 30% 1.3% 2% 25% 1.0% 1% 20% 0.3% 19% 1% 0.1% 0.0% 15% 0% -0.0% -0.3%-0.1% 10% -1% ? -1% 5% -1.0% -2% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 42 46 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10 14 18 22 Midterm elections have been inflection points for past equity markets, with the S&P 500 index performing well regardless of which party won or lost the election. Historically, stocks trade sideways-to-down in midterm election years until the beginning of the 4th quarter. October is usually the best-performing month in a midterm election year; the average fourth quarter total return is 7.7%. The S&P 500 index has not declined in the twelve months following a midterm election since 1942; however, recession fears may be a factor to consider in the near future. September 30, 2022 Monticello Associates, Inc. 13 Source: Bloomberg, Strategas and Monticello Associates V.10.31.2022 PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL please refer to the legal disclaimer on the last page of this document
Conclusion All-weather portfolio. Global, diversified Hedge funds, cash, low bond exposure have been our anchors to windward recently. Seasoned Investment Committee Always seeking to optimize return & risk We are and we will remain a vigilant, long-term investor focused on safeguarding and growing the assets you have entrusted to us.
Title of Program Goes Here Thank you We would appreciate your feedback Brendon Reay, VP Investments Email: breay@mainecf.org Direct line: 207-412-2016 Mail: 245 Main St., Ellsworth, ME 04605
MaineCF Investment Committee Mark Howard, CFA, Chair, Managing Director and Senior Multi-Asset Specialist, BNP Paribas. New York City and Boothbay, Maine Elizabeth R. Hilpman, Former Chair, Partner, Barlow Partners. New York City and Woolwich, Maine Forrest Berkley, Former Chair, retired Partner, Grantham, Mayo, VanOtterloo & Co., LLC. Concord, MA, and Northeast Harbor, Maine John B. Sullivan, Former Chair, President, Portland Global Advisors. Portland, Maine Martha Dumont, retired Director of Research, Credit Sights, New York, NY. Former Director of Global Fixed Income Research at Lehman Brothers. Falmouth, Maine Brooke Parish, President and Partner, Corvid Peak Capital Management. New York City and Castine, Maine
Inve Independent Investment Consultant Role of investment consultant MaineCF staff and Investment Committee work closely with an independent investment consultant to monitor investment manager performance and assist in manager selection Investment consultant also provides extensive analytical and comparative reporting to assist staff and the committee with its decision-making Consultant - Monticello Associates Independent asset management consulting firm providing non-discretionary investment advisory services Founded in 1992 with a focus on endowment and foundation clients and high net worth families Headquarters in Denver with offices in Cleveland and Boston Grown into one of the country s leading asset management consulting firms working with many prominent community foundations, museums, hospitals, schools, and families across the U.S. MaineCF s primary contact at Monticello: Andrew Terborgh, Managing Director
