Analysis of Load Reduction Responses During Winter Storm Elliott
Explore the detailed analysis of load reduction responses during Winter Storm Elliott, focusing on ESIIDs with load reductions on December 23rd in multiple years. Methodologies, data comparisons, and insights into competitive non-weather-sensitive ESIIDs are discussed.
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Presentation Transcript
Dec 23, 2023 Analysis of Response During Winter Storm Elliott Carl L Raish Principal Load Profiling and Modeling Wholesale Market Subcommittee May 3, 2023
ESIIDs with Dec 23 Load Reductions Dec 15 - 31, 2022 4CP/IDA/IRT ESIIDs Respond Dec 23, 2022 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 MW 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Thurs 15-Dec Fri Sat Sun 18-Dec Mon 19-Dec Tues 20-Dec Wed 21-Dec Thurs 22-Dec Fri Sat Sun 25-Dec Mon 26-Dec Tues 27-Dec Wed 28-Dec Thurs 29-Dec Fri Sat Interval 23-Dec 16-Dec 17-Dec 24-Dec 30-Dec 31-Dec base actual reduce dates High Price Event: Dec 23, Intervals 21 35, Load Reduction 3,700 MW. Down Ramp: Started Dec 21 at interval 66, load reduction increased to 300 MW by interval 96. Dec 22, Interval 96 reduction 2,000 MW. Dec 24: Average reduction 3,300 MW. Dec 25: Average reduction 3,000 MW. Largest competitive load reduction during summer 2022 occurred on July 13 and totaled 2,400 MW. 2 PUBLIC
Methodology Analysis targeted competitive Non-weather sensitive ESIIDs: 4CP billing ESIIDs, and/or ESIIDs reported on Indexed pricing for 2022 Demand Response Survey and still with reporting REP on Dec 31, 2022. Baselines developed at ESIID-level average load on weekdays Dec 15 21. ESIIDs identified as responding based on significant load reduction during Dec 23 high-price event. Weather sensitive ESIIDs and NOIEs also were examined. Typically would use Regression baselines, but Dec 23 was a Friday, holiday - regression models yielded unreliable estimates Examined actual loads over Dec 15 31 no apparent, significant load reductions found. 3 PUBLIC
ESIIDs with Dec 23, 2022 Load Reductions Dec 15 - 31, 2021 4CP/IDA/IRT ESIIDs Respond Dec 23, 2022 9,000.0 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 MW 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 Wed 15-Dec Thurs 16-Dec Fri Sat Sun 19-Dec Mon 20-Dec Tues 21-Dec Wed 22-Dec Thurs Fri Sat Sun 26-Dec Mon 27-Dec Tues 28-Dec Wed 29-Dec Thurs 30-Dec Fri Interval 23-Dec 17-Dec 18-Dec 24-Dec 25-Dec 31-Dec base actual reduce dates Quantified 2021 Christmas Holiday related load reductions for ESIIDs identified as responding to Dec 23, 2022 high price event Note: applied same baseline methodology to the 2021 data Dec 24 load was about 100 MW lower than baseline Dec 25 load was about 200 MW lower than the baseline 4 PUBLIC
ESIIDs with Dec 23, 2022 Load Reductions Dec 15 - 31, 2020 4CP/IDA/IRT ESIIDs Respond Dec 23, 2022 9,000.0 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 MW 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 Tues 15-Dec Wed 16-Dec Thurs 17-Dec Fri Sat Sun 20-Dec Mon 21-Dec Tues 22-Dec Wed Thurs 24-Dec Fri Sat Sun 27-Dec Mon 28-Dec Tues 29-Dec Wed 30-Dec Thurs 31-Dec Interval 23-Dec 18-Dec 19-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec base actual reduce dates Quantified 2020 Christmas Holiday related load reductions for ESIIDs identified as responding to Dec 23, 2022 high price event Note: applied same baseline methodology to the 2020 data Dec 24 load was about 250 MW lower than baseline Dec 25 load was about 525 MW lower than the baseline 5 PUBLIC
Seasonal Load Reduction Adjustment Looking at prior year seasonal load reductions, Reduction for Friday, December 24, 2021: 100 MW Reduction for Thursday, December 24, 2020: 250 MW A plausible assumption for Friday, Dec 23, 2022: 250 MW Response for Dec 23 High-price event: Total response Season response High price response 3,450 MW 3,700 MW -250 MW 6 PUBLIC
Questions? ON OFF craish@ercot.com 512/248-3876 7 PUBLIC
