Analysis of Project Forecasts and Queue Trends in ERCOT 2020 Meeting
Explore key takeaways from the February 2021 GINR Analysis meeting focusing on reviewing project forecasts, COD delays, and notable ERCOT queue trends during 2020. Learn about discrepancies in planned project forecasts, COD delays affecting project timelines, and trends in solar project CODs and cancelations. Consider potential next steps to enhance resource adequacy reports and project success rates.
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Presentation Transcript
GINR Analysis February 2021 SAWG Meeting Dan Mantena Resource Adequacy
Three topics for discussion Reviewing summer 2020 planned project forecasts in CDR/SARA reports Analyzing the COD delays to planned projects listed in the summer 2020 SARA report (impact on summer 2020, issues with trying to forecast delays) Notable ERCOT queue trends during 2020 2 PUBLIC
Key takeaways Reviewing summer 2020 planned project forecasts in CDR/SARA reports background: planned project forecasts in CDR and SARA reports are based on developer information at the time of report creation (summer 2020 SARA was created in late April 2020) Retrospective analysis of the forecast indicated discrepancies between the projected COD (provided by developers) and commercial operations approval for several projects. Regarding project delays and project cancelations for the summer 2020 season, the former occurred more frequently in short forecast time horizons (Final Summer 2020 SARA) and the latter more often in long forecast time horizons (May 2015 CDR). COD delays to planned projects listed in the summer 2020 SARA report 37% of planned project capacity did not reach commercial operations before or during summer 2020 3 PUBLIC
Key takeaways (continued) Notable queue trends during 2020 Solar project CODs trends and highlighting the recent Investment Tax Credit (ITC) extension Cancelation trends in the queue since August 2018 Siting of new solar projects away from the West CDR zone 4 PUBLIC
Analysis found in the GINR Analysis PDF (Feb 2021 SAWG) file on the meeting page 5 PUBLIC
The GINR Analysis Data (Feb 2021 SAWG) Excel file on the SAWG meeting page contains the data used in the analysis (at a project level of detail). 6 PUBLIC
Potential next steps Include the latest COD delays data in the Resource Adequacy reports? (GIS or Resource Capacity Trends) Develop summary statistics to highlight the success rate of planned projects reaching commercial operations. Change the problem scope? Explore the factors that promote project development with minimal COD delays. If you have any questions on this analysis or requests for additional research, here is my contact info: Dan Mantena, dan.mantena@ercot.com 6 PUBLIC
