Analysis of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland Governance Dynamics
This multidisciplinary analysis delves into the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, exploring its implementation and governance arrangements. It focuses on regulatory alignment amid UK-EU divergence, and presents voter and stakeholder perspectives on Brexit and the Protocol. Discover insights on the Windsor Framework and democratic consent in 2024.
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Presentation Transcript
Multidisciplinary analysis of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland and its implementation Governance Arrangements Dynamic regulatory alignment in a context of UK-EU regulatory divergence Voter and stakeholder views on Brexit and the Protocol www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni
The Protocol [with the Windsor Framework] is on balance a good thing for Northern Ireland 100 2021 2022 2023 90 24 24 28 31 31 32 33 37 36 80 11 10 70 9 8 10 9 8 10 9 60 8 10 11 8 7 7 9 50 13 9 28 21 24 24 31 23 40 24 24 25 30 20 31 29 29 29 28 26 25 19 10 18 0 Spring 21 Summer 21 Autumn 21 Spring 22 Summer 22 Autumn 22 Spring 23 Summer 23 Autumn 23 Strongly agree Agree Neutral/DK Disagree Strongly disagree Testing the Temperature - What do NI Voters Think about the Protocol/Windsor Framework (https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/)
The Protocol [with the Windsor Framework] is on balance a good thing for Northern Ireland 96% 100% 95% 95% 94% 92% 94% 94% 94% 92% 91% 90% 95% 90% 89% 94% 88% 90% 81% 81% 81% 80% 79% 79% 74% 74% 72% 70% 67% 60% 56% 56% 53% 53% 53% 52% 52% 50% 50% 50% 43% 43% 41% 40% 35% 31% 30% 30% 29% 28% 26% 24% 21% Windsor Framework 20% 11% 10% 9% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 1% 0% Spring 21 Summer 21 Autumn 21 Spring 22 Summer 22 Autumn 22 Spring 23 Summer 23 Autumn 23 Agree (total) Agree (Strong Unst) Agree (Slight Unst) Agree (Neither) Agree (Slight Nst) Agree (Strong Nst) Testing the Temperature - What do NI Voters Think about the Protocol/Windsor Framework (https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/)
Democratic Consent in 2024 Based on what you currently know, and are experiencing now, how would you like the MLAs for whom you vote[d] in the 2022 NI Assembly election to vote in 2024 on the Protocol? (%) 70 61 60 58 56 52 51 51 46 50 50 50 47 42 42 41 41 41 40 45 40 36 34 32 30 20 Windsor Framework 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 0 Mar-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Jun-22 Oct-22 Feb-23 Mar-23 Jun-23 Oct-23 Full application of the Protocol No preference/no interest Against continued application of Articles 5-10 Testing the Temperature - What do NI Voters Think about the Protocol/Windsor Framework (https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/)
Trust in Managing NI Interests in Relation to the Protocol/Windsor Framework (%) Testing the Temperature IX - What do NI Voters Think about the Protocol/Windsor Framework, 20-23 October 2023. Weighted Sample: 1,104 (https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/)
