Analyzing Breakout and Forecheck Performance in Hockey Analytics Conference
Explore the insightful findings on quantifying breakout and forecheck performance in the Vancouver Hockey Analytics Conference of March 3rd, 2018. Learn about the impact of zone exits, correlation coefficients on player control, team influences on individual performance, team strategies for breakout and non-breakout scenarios, and the best performers relative to team performance in hockey analytics.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
Quantifying Breakout and Forecheck Performance ALEX NOVET VANCOUVER HOCKEY ANALYTICS CONFERENCE MARCH 3RD, 2018
24% of all 5v5 goals are scored after the defending team had possession of the puck but failed to exit the zone
Zone exits have three possible results Exits Tracked 45000 30000 15000 0 Failure Clear Transition
How do we put this together? Zone Exits CA/Failure + CA/Clear + CF/Transition Failure % Clear % Transition % = Zone Exit Score
League Wide Results 23% -0.5 + 34% -0.5 + 44% 0.5 CA/Failure + CA/Clear + CF/Transition Failure % Clear % Transition % = -0.023 Zone Exit Score
But how much does the player control? Pearson Correlation Coefficients for Split-Half Performance Forwards Defensemen Individual (Exit Score) On Ice For On Ice Against (Forecheck Score) Individual (Exit Score) On Ice For On Ice Against (Forecheck Score) (Breakout Score) (Breakout Score) Failure % 0.22* 0.15 0.27* 0.36* 0.34* 0.25* Clear % 0.37* 0.27* 0.16 0.19 0.20 0.22* Transition % 0.43* 0.30* 0.30* 0.40* 0.35* 0.43* CA/Failure 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.21 CA/Clear 0.09 -0.04 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.19 CF/Transition 0.21 0.47* 0.33* 0.28 0.55* 0.42* * and bold values are significant with Bonferroni correction of p-value to .0014 Italic values are significant at a .05 p=value but not at the corrected p-value
Best Performers Relative to Team Forwards Defensemen Individual (Exit On Ice For On Ice Against (Forecheck Score) Individual (Exit On Ice For On Ice Against (Forecheck Score) Score) (Breakout Score) Score) (Breakout Score) Jack Eichel Matthew Tkachuk Carl Hagelin Nick Leddy Anthony Deangelo Shea Weber P.A. Parenteau Michael Frolik Brian Boyle Jared Spurgeon Drew Doughty Josh Manson Patrick Kane Mikael Backlund Patrice Bergeron Anthony Deangelo Jake McCabe Ian Cole Connor McDavid Connor McDavid Alex Chiasson Ryan Suter Dougie Hamilton TJ Brodie Leon Draisaitl Blake Wheeler Mark Stone Jake Gardiner Ryan Suter Anton Stralman Ryan Getzlaf Jonathan Toews Charlie Coyle Drew Doughty Seth Jones David Schlemko Artemi Panarin Jakub Voracek Gabriel Landeskog Dylan DeMelo Zach Werenski John Moore Nick Cousins Leon Draisaitl Scott Hartnell Ryan Ellis Ivan Provorov Adam Pelech Nikolaj Ehlers Bryan Little Andrew Shaw Ivan Provorov Kyle Quincey Brendan Smith Brandon Saad Taylor Hall Leo Komarov Jaccob Slavin Brett Pesce Connor Murphy
The key to turning a zone exit into an entry is possession % of Exits Leading to an Entry If the exiting team recovers the puck after a dump-out, their success rate rises to 87% 89% 87% 19% Carry Out Pass Out Dump Out
We can measure the value of carry vs. dump Attempt to Carry Out the Puck CA/Failure + CA/Clear + CF/Transition Failure % Clear % Transition % X -.493 .123*(1-X) -.435 .877*(1-X) .574 Attempt to Dump Out the Puck CA/Failure + CA/Clear + CF/Transition Failure % Clear % Transition % Y -.493 .808*(1-Y) -.486 .192*(1-Y) .583
Time for some game theory algebra Value of an average controlled exit .493? .435 .123 1 ? + .574 .877 1 ? = .493? .486 .808 1 ? + .583 .192 (1 ?) Value of an average uncontrolled exit .493? .0535 + .0535? + .503 .503? = .493? .393 + .393? + .112 .112? 0.450 0.943? = 0.212? 0.281 4.45? 3.46 = ?
Players should try to exit with possession more often If we re on this line, it doesn t matter 100% If we re here, carry or pass more 75% % Chance of Failure on Uncontrolled Exit 50% If we re here, carry or pass less 25% -0% 25% 50% 75% 100% % Chance of Failure on Controlled Exit
Next Steps More data. Always more data. An unquenchable thirst for more data. Expand statistical offerings (off-ice, etc.) Better assess team influence relative to team repeatability Individual player dashboard Model expected zone exit score (or at least account for pressure) Convincing you to look analyze this data yourself (#HockeyHelpeR)
Thank You Questions, comments, complaints? anovet@gmail.com or on Twitter @AlexNovet Compliments, praise, endorsements? Analytics@eagles.nfl.com Code and sample data will be available on Github shortly As always, thank you to Corey Sznajder for doing most of the work
Best Performers Forwards Defensemen Individual (Exit On Ice For On Ice Against (Forecheck Score) Individual (Exit On Ice For On Ice Against (Forecheck Score) Score) (Breakout Score) Score) (Breakout Score) Connor McDavid Connor McDavid Patrice Bergeron Nick Leddy Drew Doughty Shea Weber Jack Eichel Anze Kopitar Brad Marchand Drew Doughty Seth Jones Anton Stralman Leon Draisaitl Andre Burakovsky David Pastrnak Jared Spurgeon Zach Werenski Adam McQuaid Patrick Kane Jakub Voracek Dale Weise Nate Schmidt Ivan Provorov Torey Krug Brandon Saad Brandon Saad Cedric Paquette Dylan DeMelo Scott Harrington Radko Gudas Brandon Dubinsky Justin Williams Vladislav Namestnikov Seth Jones Jake Muzzin Josh Manson Artemi Panarin Matthew Tkachuk Tyler Toffoli Brayden McNabb Brett Pesce Braydon Coburn Milan Lucic Alex Wennberg Matt Read Joel Edmundson David Schlemko Jake Muzzin Alex Wennberg Leon Draisaitl Scott Hartnell Zach Werenski Brenden Dillon Colin Miller Oliver Bjorkstrand Sam Gagner Brayden Point Ivan Provorov Matt Niskanen Alexei Emilin
