Applications of Complex Systems Analysis in Understanding Terrorism
Explore the intricate connections between stakeholders, political/economic events, and terrorist activities. Discover how different levels of analysis, from individual to international, shed light on the formation and actions of terrorist groups through a case study on the Tigantourine Gas Plant attack. Richard J. Chasdi's insights provide a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted nature of terrorism and its root causes.
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Terrorism and Complex Systems: Applications to illuminate the Rudiments of Terrorist Events and Group Formation Richard J. Chasdi, Ph.D. Professorial Lecturer Department of Political Science The George Washington University Rchasdi81@gwu.edu Rchasdi@aol.com
My book, Corporate Security Crossroads: Responding to Terrorism, Cyberthreats, and Other Hazards in the Global Business Community (Praeger Publishers, ABC- CLIO, 2018) makes use of: A. Complex Systems Analysis stakeholders countries, terrorist groups, IGO s, NGO s (62) explanatory factors - stressors political/economic events inclusive of stakeholder actions (62) endogenous - to terrorism systems exogenous - to terrorism systems Direct and Indirect connections first, second, third, fourth order ripple effects Coupled with: Neo-Realist Three Level Analysis (Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State, and War 1959; Nye 1993) 3rdimage international political systems factors affecting 3 or more states. Examples: Cold War, Global War on Terrorism, Asian Economic Crisis (1997-8), drought, famine, mass migrations, pollution, disease, imperialism,
Chasdi (continued) 2ndimage nation-state level factors Examples: political solidarities/composition of society (Coalition of Rye and Iron between Junker landowners and industrialists in early 20thcentury Germany), level of socio-economic development, ethnic politics, regime type, geography, topography, etc. 1stimage individual level/small group Individual leader qualities (Waltz 1959) and upper crust decision-makers Woodrow Wilson s strict Calvinist upbringing; J.F.K. s preference to ratchet up pressure on Nikita Khrushchev (1962); Kaiser Wilhelm II s personality. B. This version of Complex Systems Analysis leads to Interventions Point Policies Terrorism systems defined by national boundaries or region In some but not all cases, long-haul, (e.g., capitalism, imperialism) middle-run, (e.g., ethnic divisions) and short-run factors (e.g., terrorist group splintering/spinoff, recruitment, propaganda,) correspond with international, nation-state , and individual/small group explanatory factor placement.
Chasdi (continued) A Case Study: Tigantourine Gas Plant attack (2013 conducted by Mokhtar Belmokhtar s Battalion of Blood and Movement for Oneness and United in West Africa (MUJAO). MUJAO is an AQIM splinter group ) Tigantourine consortium owned by Statoil (Norway), Sonatrach (Algeria) and BP (63). International-Level Factors (66-67) 1. French imperialism; 2.Islamic Revivalism; 3. Islamist Terrorism; 4. End of Cold War; 5. North-South Divide ; Nation-State Level Factors (67) 1. Malian ethnic tensions; 2. Bamako s Divisive Political Military Policy; 3. French military policy; 4. Corrupt Arab regimes; 5. French foreign policy; 6. Tuareg separatism; 8. French National Policy Individual/Small Group Level Factors (67-68) 1. sub-national actors (e.g. Anser Dine a Tuareg separatist group ( Defenders of the Faith ), Islamic extremists. 2. personal rivalries (e.g., Mokhtar Belmokhtar and AQIM s Abdelmalek Droukdel; Mokhtar Belmokhtar and AQIM chieftain Abu Zeid); 3. Terrorist Group Life-Cycle (e.g, Salafi Group for the Call and Combat + al-Qaeda = AQIM)
Chasdi (continued) Applications The interventions point analysis makes it possible to review and likely improve security conditions for MNC s in host countries. Shortcomings not able to account for interactive effects (59). A. Traditional (and defensive) P-2 ( personal security and property protection ) Improvement (empirical)(57) X2 X1 X1 = empirical (existing) security at site of terrorist attack empirical X2 = augmented P-2 security (e.g., armed guards, additional outposts, new communications equipment lock and key procedures (57) normative what is the probable increase? B. Non-Traditional Soft-line Security Improvement Y2-Y1 Y1 = soft-line security at site of attack ( empirical ) Y2 = augmented soft-line security ( normative ). What is the probable increase?
Chasdi (continued) The Total Security Measure Index (TSM) (58). This is a combined estimate of security enhancement In turn that makes it possible to compare across case studies. It sums up hypothetical value added (59) X1-X2 + Y2-Y1 Qualitative judgements are made about security conditions (57): none/ low-level impacts = 10 points medium-level impacts = 50 points high level impacts = 100 points
