ASEAN COVID-19 Impacts and Recovery Analysis
Explore the economic impacts of COVID-19 in ASEAN countries, including forecasts, indicators, and stimulus programs. Understand the challenges faced, recovery strategies, and lessons for the future. Stay informed about the GDP growth forecasts and the global economic outlook in this comprehensive analysis.
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COVID-19 in ASEAN: Impacts and Recovery Jayant Menon ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute Singapore jmenon1@gmail.com CHILE-ASEAN: ASSESSING POTENTIAL AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR TRADE GROWTH
Outline COVID-19 in ASEAN Economic Impacts Outlook for ASEAN: Is Recovery Underway? Balancing Health and Economy: Lesson for the Future
COVID-19 Indicators in ASEAN, World, 15 Nov 2020 Total Deaths (TD) 3 0 15,211 0 309 1,577 Total Cases (TC) TC Per Mil Population TD Per Mil Population Total Tests (TT) TT Per Mil Population Countries Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar 148 302 337 18 1,701 3 1,458 1,265 3 0 55 0 10 29 72,550 208,154 5,055,488 71,020 2,401,043 897,352 165,248 12,387 18,410 9,709 73,834 16,451 467,113 24 47,417 68,994 Philippines 407,838 3,704 7,832 71 5,268,410 47,842 Singapore Thailand Vietnam 58,119 3,874 1,281 9,905 55 13 28 60 35 5 1 <0 4,066,897 977,854 1,339,465 693,124 13,996 13,715 ASEAN 1,055,110 1,575 25,055 37 20,358,233 30,397 World 54,481,609 6,989 1,320,622 169 - -
The recession, made worse by containment policy, can be mitigated with economic policy
Size of Economic Stimulus Programs (% of GDP) Size of Stimulus Programmes in ASEAN (% of GDP) 30.00 26.20 25.00 22.10 20.00 16.00 % of GDP 15.00 10.90 10.10 10.00 8.30 5.70 5.00 2.70 0.10 0.00 0.00 Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam ASEAN Member States
IMF, ADB Forecasts, GDP Growth, ASEAN, 2020- 21 IMF Oct 2020 Forecast 2020 0.1 -2.8 -1.5 0.2 -6.0 2.0 -8.3 -6.0 -7.1 1.6 -3.4 ADB Sept 2020 Forecast 2020 1.4 -4.0 -1.0 -2.5 -5.0 1.8 -7.3 -6.2 -8.0 1.8 -3.8 Actual 2019 3.9 7.1 5.0 5.0 4.3 6.8 5.9 0.7 2.4 7.0 4.4 2021 3.2 6.8 6.1 4.8 7.8 5.7 7.4 5.0 4.0 6.7 6.2 2021 5.0 5.9 5.3 4.5 6.5 6.0 6.5 4.5 4.5 6.3 5.5 Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam ASEAN (a)
Balancing Health Risks and Economic Costs Lockdown for what? Eliminating virus; Managing community spread; Flattening the curve? Lockdowns can work under certain conditions China Lockdowns not necessary Taiwan Lockdowns not feasible India; Indonesia Lockdowns not sustainable every country! Living with the virus Domestic vs border restrictions
