Association Between U.S. Firearm Manufacturing and Homicides in Central America & Caribbean
Exploring the correlation between firearm manufacturing and imports in the U.S. and firearm-related homicides in Central America and the Caribbean from 1991-2019. The study reveals a strong association, highlighting the impact of U.S. firearm supply on regional gun violence.
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Firearm manufacturing and imports in the U.S.: firearm homicides in Central America and the Caribbean, 1991-2019 Eugenio Weigend Vargas, PhD
Disclosures - No conflict of interest/financial disclosure - Research reported in this presentation was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number T32HD108054. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.
Manufactured/imported firearms in U.S. (millions) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF)
Rate of homicides in the region (Central America & The Caribbean), 1991-2019 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Rate gun homicides Rate non-gun homicides Source: Global Burden of Disease
20 18 16 14 Objective: examine the association between firearms manufactured & imported in the U.S. and firearm-related homicides in Central America & the Caribbean. 12 10 8 6 4 2 Correlation: 0.90 0 2008 2011 2014 2017 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 Rate of interpersonal death with firearms Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean Manufactured/imported firearms in U.S. (millions) Source: U.S Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and Global Burden of Disease
U.S. is an important supplier of crime guns in the region Percentage of crime guns U.S. origin (2014-2019) Percentage of crime guns U.S. origin (2014-2019) Caribbean 63% Central America 41% Bahamas 99% Costa Rica* 57% Haiti* 98% Belize 55% El Salvador 49% Barbados* 78% Panama 45% Jamaica 67% Honduras 34% Guatemala 32% Trinidad and Tobago 58% Percentage of crime guns U.S. origin (2014-2019) Dominican Republic 46% Mexico 70% Source: Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (*data was not available for all years)
Firearms trafficking Interpersonal violence with firearms in Central American and Caribbean countries? Increases in manufacturing and imports of firearms in the U.S. Permissive and diverse laws in the U.S. Porous borders. Poor enforcement of laws (Ban on imports of AW, ATF inspections). Corruption in recipient countries. Stablished channels for gun trafficking in the U.S. (theft, straw buyers, no background checks during private sales). Demand of firearms to control drug markets and other illicit activities.
14 countries Countries with population over 250,000 people. Not including U.S. territories (Puerto Rico) and Cuba Mexico (included as Central America) The Bahamas Honduras Haiti Guatemala Dominican Republic El Salvador Jamaica Costa Rica Trinidad & Tobago Belize Barbados Panama Nicaragua
Dependent variable Independent variable Covariates Measurements 1) Rate of physical violent deaths by firearm in each country, 1991-2019. 1) The sum of annual firearm manufacturing and imports (in millions), 1991-2019. 1) Annual rates (100K) of legal firearm imports within each country measured in real dollar values (Based on U.S. 2019 CPI). It is defined as death from intentional use of a firearm by another person, not including police or military members. We are including pistols, revolvers, shotguns, and rifles. Not including miscellaneous firearms. Data 2) Proportion of population ages 15-24. 2) Rate of physical violent deaths by non- firearms in each country (NEGATIVE CONTROL), 1991-2019 Source Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset. Compiled by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2021 ATF Firearms Commerce in the United States. U.N. COMTRADE & Our World Data
Analysis - Panel data with country fix effects and time fixed effects 14 countries 29 years - Dependent variables Rate of interpersonal violent deaths with firearms Rate of interpersonal violent deaths non-firearms -Independent variables U.S. annual FA manufacturing + imports - Covariates Monetary value of FA imports in each country (from all countries) Proportion of population 15 to 24 years of age Rate of unemployment
Panel data (country fixed effects/year fixed effects)
Rate of firearm homicides in Central America and the Caribbean Rate of non-firearm homicides in Central America and the Caribbean Rate of non- firearm homicides in Central America Rate of non- firearm homicides in the Caribbean * P 0.05 ** P 0.01 *** P 0.001 Rate of firearm homicides in Central America Rate of firearm homicides in the Caribbean U.S. annual firearm production and imports (millions) 1.43*** 1.38* 1.08** -0.13 -0.28 0.22 Rate of real annul monetary value of firearm imports per country (in millions of dollars) 0.02 -0.13 0.03 0.01 -0.05 0.01 Proportion of population ages 15 to 24 1.12** 2.07** 0.29 0.22 1.00* 0.08
Sensitive analyses - Both low and high estimates of rate of physical violent deaths with firearms from GBD (as outcome variables). - For individual country imports, we only considered legal firearm imports from the U.S. (the main exporter of firearms). - Added rate of unemployment as covariate (World Bank). - Ran analysis with lagged observations (up to four years) for the independent variable (U.S. annual production and imports of firearms). Associations between U.S. firearm production and imports remained positive and significant. - Included Cuba in the analysis. - Individual country regression (29 observations).
Coefficients and 95% CI No Lag 3.00 2-year Lag No Lag 1-year Lag 2-year Lag 2.50 4-year Lag No Lag 1-year Lag 2-year Lag 4-year Lag 3-year Lag 2.00 1-year Lag 4-year Lag 3-year Lag 3-year Lag 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Central America & The Caribbean The Caribbean Central America
Coefficients and 95% CI for individual country regression 7.00 6.00 Honduras Central America & Caribbean 5.00 El Salvador Central America Trinidad & Tobago 4.00 The Caribbean Dominican Republic 3.00 Guatemala Bahamas Mexico Belize 2.00 Costa Rica Barbados 1.00 Haiti 0.00 Nicaragua Cuba Panama Jamaica -1.00 -2.00
- Supports previous findings (Mexico). - Beyond Mexico. - U.S. firearm imports, not just U.S. manufactured firearms. Discussion - Firearms legally imported into these countries is another issue. - Intertwined with other regional challenges. Drugs Migration
- Actions needed The enforcement of laws such as the banning of assault weapon imports. Assault weapons, background checks, security requirements at FFLs. Better data sharing (Tiahrt Amendment). Better end user controls for legal imports. Recommendations - Secure porous borders Haiti to Jamaica Guatemala to Honduras Mexico to countries in the Northern Triangle
