August 2023 Drought Risk Assessment Update by Dan Mantena
"Explore the latest updates on drought risk assessment for August 2023, including comparisons with past years, water levels at monitored reservoirs, and the percentage of the state under drought conditions. Stay informed on drought trends and model updates. Additional reports and resources available through the ERCOT Resource Adequacy page."
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Presentation Transcript
Drought Risk Assessment August 2023 Update Dan Mantena Resource Adequacy 8/25/23
Drought Conditions (August 2011 vs. August 2023) https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx 2 PUBLIC
Drought Conditions (August 2022 vs. August 2023) https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx 3 PUBLIC
August 2023 update of the drought model https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource 4 PUBLIC
Comparing recent drought risk updates August 2022 August 2023 5 PUBLIC
Water levels at monitored reservoirs and groundwater aquifers as of August 1 2023 6 PUBLIC
Percentage of State under Drought Conditions from U.S. Drought Monitor https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData/DSCI.aspx 7 PUBLIC
Drought Risk Model Updates compared to U.S. Drought Monitor Exceptional Drought Metric 9 PUBLIC
Appendix Additional related documents and public drought risk reports can be found under the Drought Risk section of the ERCOT Resource Adequacy page https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource For questions/comments: Dmantena@ercot.com 10 PUBLIC
Appendix: Modeling of reservoirs under drought conditions The model use a Drought Fit prediction by simulating monthly storage level changes in times of drought. For most reservoirs, the level of the 30th percentile is used to forecast monthly usage. Short-term Weather forecast introduced into model at the end of 2019 consists of a single qualitative descriptor for the upcoming 3 months based on temperature and precipitation outlooks for the state provided by ERCOT s meteorologist. A wet weather forecast reflects the 75% percentile of monthly changes in storage for the upcoming 3 months. A normal weather forecast reflects the 50% percentile of monthly changes in storage for the upcoming 3 months. A dry weather forecast reflects the 25% percentile of monthly changes in storage for the upcoming 3 months. A Dry forecast was used for the fall season in the August 2023 drought risk update. 11 PUBLIC
