Avoiding False Causation: The Logic Behind Correlation and Causation
Explore the concept of Post Hoc fallacy and how it relates to false causation with everyday and political examples. Understand the difference between correlation and causation to avoid logical pitfalls in reasoning.
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Presentation Transcript
10 Commandments of Logic Logic #5 Ruby Bowen
Thou shall not claim that because something occurred before, it must be the cause. (Post Hoc/False cause)
Event X happens and then Event Y happens So X definitely caused Y
Everyday Example: Ashley is losing all her soccer games. Her boyfriends gives her a necklace and she wins her next game. Therefore, the necklace helped her win.
Political Example: Trump complains that Kasich is 'taking my votes' and should leave GOP race Kasich is in the race with no shot at winning the GOP nomination (says Trump). Therefore Kasich is taking away delegate votes for Trump. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/04/0 3/trump-complains-kasich-taking-my-votes-and-should-leave-gop- race/82585974/
Why there may be a correlation, but not causation . Having multiple candidates means having the option to vote for any of them Just because a candidate leaves (Kasich), doesn t mean his supporters will become Trump supporters.
