Balkan Barometer 2017
The Regional Cooperation Council presents the Balkan Barometer 2017 report detailing the findings of a public opinion and business sentiment survey conducted across various economies in the Balkan region. The report highlights trends in expectations, satisfaction levels, regional integration favorability, and infrastructure needs, providing valuable insights for monitoring progress in the Southeast European (SEE) region.
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REGIONAL COOPERATION COUNCIL PRESENTS: Balkan Barometer 2017 BRUSSELS, 9th OCTOBER 2017.
Balkan Barometer 2017 PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY BUSINESS OPINION SURVEY Vladimir Gligorov October 2017, Presentation of the results
Introduction RESEARCH AIM: The main objective of the assignment is to design, with RCC s input, and execute a public opinion and business sentiment survey and produce another Balkan Barometer report. The Balkan Barometer report is envisioned to become an integral part of the SEE 2020 monitoring system. TARGET GROUPS - SAMPLES: Balkan Barometer Public Opinion Survey: n=8000 (1000 per each economy: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo*, Montenegro, Serbia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey; 18+, nationally representative, two-stage stratified). P Balkan Barometer Business Opinion Survey: n=1600 (200 per each economy: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo*, Montenegro, Serbia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey; nationally representative for companies that are not state owned (in business more than two years and employ more than 3 employees); respondent: member of company management team. B TIMING: November December 2016 *This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
Summary Steady rise of expectations, though satisfaction still low Not much of nationalism detectable, while rising importance of the EU market Regional integration favoured, though CEFTA and other regional initiatives not well known Infrastructure not an obstacle, need for better roads Social life relatively satisfactory, politics a burden The latter more as source of instability than because of widespread corruption Expectations are running against reality in 2017 and possibly in the next few years
Expectations ahead of reality BPSI 2016 BPSI - Present Situation indeks - 2016 BPSI - Expectation indeks - 2016 BPSI 2015 BPSI - Present Situation indeks - 2015 BPSI - Expectation indeks - 2015 BPSI 2014 BPSI - Present Situation indeks - 2014 BPSI - Expectation indeks - 2014 100 73 71 71 80 59 58 56 P 56 54 53 52 52 49 51 50 49 50 48 60 45 39 47 46 45 45 42 44 44 41 43 43 44 44 43 43 42 41 41 41 40 40 39 36 39 37 38 34 36 33 36 34 34 34 34 37 35 30 34 32 34 31 31 31 31 30 29 30 29 29 29 40 28 28 28 26 20 0 Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Kosovo* The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Montenegro Serbia SEE 2016 BBSI 2016 BBSI - Present Situation Index 2016 BBSI - Expectation Index 2015 BBSI 2015 BBSI - Present Situation Index 2015 BBSI - Expectation Index 2014 BBSI 2014 BBSI - Present Situation Index 2014 BBSI - Expectation Index 100 85 82 78 79 76 75 73 70 70 70 69 69 80 67 67 66 66 62 63 65 64 B 64 64 61 63 56 64 62 62 61 60 60 61 60 60 60 59 56 59 56 59 56 57 57 57 57 57 57 56 55 53 55 56 53 53 51 51 52 51 51 50 51 46 49 50 50 60 47 48 47 46 46 46 42 40 20 0 Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Kosovo* The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Montenegro Serbia SEE
Increased demand has not resulted in business expansion, the unemployment is still the biggest concern How has demand for your company s products/services changed over the past 12 months? Has it deteriorated, remained unchanged or improved? (All respondents - N=1430, share of total, %) What do you think are the most important problems facing the entire SEE region at the moment? (All respondents - N=7026, share of total, %) P B 33 28 10 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 SEE 35 34 36 24 19 7 10 1 2 1 34 Kosovo* 42 44 46 48 60 16 20 9 3 13 6 3 11 9 4 3 4 Albania 36 23 13 7 5 6 4 1 2 1 1 Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina DK/refuse 41 44 48 22 9 9 5 1 3 1 1 1 1 46 41 41 41 39 29 40 8 7 5 7 3 1 Serbia Improved 33 The Former Yugoslav 1 25 23 9 8 9 7 8 2 2 2 1 1 1 25 Remained unchanged 21 18 16 14 13 12 45 28 7 9 3 2 2 1 1 Montenegro 8 Republic of Deteriorated Albania Montenegro Herzegovina Croatia Serbia SEE Kosovo* The Former Bosnia and Yugoslav Unemployment Crime Brain drain/emigration Protection of human rights Climate change Gender inequality Economic situation Political disputes Security issues/terrorism Judicial system Something else Corruption Refugees Border issues Problems with minorities Integration of Roma Significantly higher than 2015 Significantly lower than 2015
Rising importance of the EU; however, there is more pessimism when it comes to the prospects of EU accession in the near-term Do you think that EU membership would be/is a good thing, a bad thing, or neither good nor bad? (All respondents - N=7026, share of total, %) P P In general, when do you expect the accession to EU to happen? (All respondents - N=6021, share of total, %) 8 9 42 36 19 4 SEE 14 14 16 17 6 21 90 6 3 1 Kosovo* 6 15 17 28 28 33 15 81 14 5 1 Albania 13 38 The Former Yugoslav 54 33 11 1 15 37 14 25 15 44 29 22 6 Montenegro 28 24 13 23 32 50 16 2 Croatia 23 Bosnia and Herezegovina 37 18 35 31 46 18 4 28 25 19 15 9 26 37 30 6 Serbia Significantly higher than 2015 Significantly lower than 2015 Good thing Bad thing Neither good nor bad DK/refuse By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 Never DK/refuse
Consistent with growing outward migration, improved relations with the EU are favored for reasons of access to education and jobs P What would EU membership mean to you personally? (All respondents - N=7026, maximum two answers, share of total, %) 70 58 60 55 50 47 50 46 43 41 35 37 40 33 31 31 30 30 28 30 26 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 22 20 19 20 14 19 18 20 16 15 16 15 13 12 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 10 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 0 Croatia Serbia Bosnia and Herezegovina The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Kosovo* Albania Montenegro SEE Significantly higher than 2015 Significantly lower than 2015 Freedom to study and/or work in the EU Peace and stability Loss of sovereignty Economic prosperity Nothing good/positive Gender equality Freedom to travel Social protection DK/refuse
EU integration has fewer supporters in the larger economies than in the smaller ones; regional integration favored Do you think that EU membership would be/is a good thing, a bad thing, or neither good nor bad for your How important is the quality of regional cooperation in the SEE to your business? (All respondents - N=1430, share of total, %) B B company? (All respondents - N=1430, share of total, %) 1 2 4 4 24 24 36 16 1 SEE 5 10 3 25 52 21 1 Kosovo* Bosnia and Herzegovina 12 17 42 26 3 51 40 62 57 60 63 75 The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 79 7 25 49 19 7 26 46 19 2 Montenegro 9 25 42 24 1 Albania 40 35 32 30 31 35 18 29 39 14 Serbia 20 19 10 43 24 25 9 Croatia 9 7 7 6 3 3 1 Republic of Montenegro Albania Herzegovina Croatia Serbia Kosovo* SEE The Former Bosnia and Yugoslav Not important at all Important DK/refuse Not very important Very important
Still, CEFTA and other regional initiatives are not well known What percentage of your company s sales are made domestically, exported to the SEE region, to the EU or to the third countries? (All respondents - N=1430, share of total, %) To what extent do you think that you are informed about the regional free trade agreement (CEFTA 2006)? (All respondents - N=1430, share of total, %) B B SEE 27 37 26 9 2 SEE 38 62 Non-exporters 2 19 68 12 Kosovo* Exporters 18 35 28 19 1 Albania 23 31 31 15 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 1 4 2 3 1 4 3 8 2 10 1 11 5 6 13 7 4 5 18 41 29 8 4 Serbia 3 8 37 29 20 9 4 Montenegro The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 28 41 22 7 2 97 91 90 86 86 85 84 80 Sold domestically Exported to the SEE region Exported to the EU Exported to third countries 39 38 17 5 Croatia Not informed at all Mostly informed DK/refuse Slightly informed Completely informed Herzego Yugoslav Albania Croatia Monteneg Serbia Kosovo* SEE Former Bosnia and The ro
Roads are used the most, infrastructure still less than satisfactory Which mode of transport did you most often use when travelling outside of your place of residence in the past 12 months? (All respondents - N=7026, share of total, %) How do you estimate the quality of transport infrastructure and connections within your economy? (All respondents - N=7026, share of total, %, mean) P P 100% 5.0 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 53 35 1 1 1 8 1 SEE 5 6 2 1 3 8 DK/ref use 9 1 6 3 11 17 64 22 1 4 2 6 1 Croatia 80% Excell ent 30 4.0 The Former Yugoslav 44 43 62 28 2 2 1 4 45 44 51 Very good 46 Bosnia and Herzegovina 60% 59 26 1 12 1 1 65 3.3 3.0 Good 48 42 7 Serbia 1 3.0 40% 47 2.7 Poor 2.6 2.6 48 24 2 3 1 21 1 Montenegro 2.5 41 2.5 2.4 35 38 2.0 30 32 35 20% 44 43 1 2 7 3 Kosovo* Very poor 14 11 15 42 52 1 4 Albania 9 9 8 7 7 Mean 2 Kosovo* 2 Croatia 0% 1.0 The Former Montenegro Serbia Albania Herzegovina SEE Automobile Bus Airplane Train other I did not travel DK/refuse Bosnia and Yugoslav Republic
Infrastructure not much of an obstacle, need for better roads Do you think that EU membership would be/is a good thing, a bad thing, or neither good nor bad for your In what way the infrastructure in general (transportation and communication means, supply) impacts your business? (All respondents - N=1430, share of total, %, mean) B B company? (All respondents - N=1430, share of total, %) 2 100% 5.0 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 Roads 7 6 7 1 8 5 2 6 8 8 1 11 4 14 22 1 4 4 4 4 6 19 3 1 2 2 1 2 6 2 8 Telecommunicat ions Electricity 3 2 28 5 33 5 5 15 80% 1 9 4 21 3 43 5 36 17 4.0 10 4 8 41 10 8 5 10 46 3.5 3.8 3.3 12 10 Railroads In a very negative way In a negative way Neither negative nor positive In a positive way In a very positive way DK/refuse 16 3.1 60% 47 3.4 26 30 2.9 3.0 49 3.0 3.2 52 Air travel 17 54 40% 43 30 Gas 66 65 62 56 55 38 51 2.0 Waterway transport Other 29 39 28 20% 38 22 20 21 12 14 8 4 7 3 Montenegro 2 Serbia 2 Kosovo* 2 1 SEE 0 Croatia 0 Yugoslav Republic 0% 1.0 DK/refuse Croatia Montenegro Albania Herzegovina Yugoslav Republic Kosovo* SEE Serbia Albania Herzegovina Bosnia and Bosnia and of Macedonia of Macedonia The Former The Former
Critical prerequisite for securing employment is knowing the right people In your opinion which two assets are most important for finding a job today? (All respondents - N=7026, share of total, %) What do you think is most important for getting ahead in life? (Comparison 2014/2015/2016, all respondents, share of P P total, %) Personal contacts Level of one's qualification/education Ability to adapt Computer skills Ethnic affiliation Other Network of family and friends in high places Professional experience Language skills Willingness to work abroad None of these DK/refuse 2014 2015 2016 Working hard Having a good education Knowing the right people 25 25 25 60 57 57 23 22 19 50 49 47 47 46 45 41 40 37 32 23 28 31 36 34 31 34 33 33 31 30 29 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 20 19 19 19 19 17 17 15 15 14 13 10 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Croatia Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Kosovo* Albania Montenegro SEE Significantly higher than 2015 Significantly lower than 2015
Social life relatively satisfactory, politics a burden, more as source of instability than because of widespread corruption P (All respondents - N=7026, share of total, %, mean) To what extent do you agree or not agree that the following categories in your economy are affected by corruption? (All respondents - N=7026, share of total, %) P How satisfied are you with each of the following in your place of living? SEE Albania Kosovo* Montenegro Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Serbia SEE 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 13 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 4 6 7 9 11 13 11 8 Significantly higher than 2015 Significantly lower than 2015 13 15 16 15 17 17 24 3.8 21 3.6 24 34 3.4 39 38 27 41 3.3 37 3.2 3.2 30 3.2 40 3.1 42 3.1 3.1 42 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 38 40 2.8 2.8 2.7 34 2.6 29 2.4 25 48 2.2 2.1 41 41 39 38 2.0 34 32 29 25 24 Accessibility to public Safety from crime differences town/village Quality of schools/ Social life Cleanliness of my city/ central government Health services Level of prices services via a digital channel Administrative services from Present job Tolerance and respect of Utility services education system Public services in general 21 18 16 transport infrastructure In general with quality of Religious Political Education Public officials Customs Media NGOs Military private sector Parliament Police Judiciary health services /civil servants parties Medical and bodies system Business/ Totally agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Totally disagree DK/refuse
Political uncertainty and policy instability are the main obstacles to better economic performance. Can you tell how problematic are these different factors for the operation and growth of your business? Can you please rate each? (All respondents - N=1430, scores are on a scale of 1 to 4 where 1 means major obstacle, 2 moderate obstacle, 3 minor obstacle and 4 no obstacle, mean) B The Former Bosnia and Yugoslav Albania Croatia Kosovo* Montenegro Serbia Herzegovina Republic of Macedonia Tax administration and tax rates 2,5 2,7 2,1 1,9 2,6 2,5 2,5 2,9 2,7 2,2 Macroeconomic instability Contract violations by customers and suppliers 2,3 2,9 2,5 2,5 2,8 2,8 2,4 2,1 2,6 2,7 2,5 and functioning of the judiciary Risk of social instability, breakup of law and order and uncertainty about regulatory 2,6 2,8 2,3 2,2 2,7 2,6 2,6 policies Corruption Customs and trade regulations and anti- 2,2 2,9 2,5 1,8 2,8 2,8 2,7 2,7 2,7 2,5 2,1 2,8 2,5 2,6 competitive practices of other competitors Access to financing and cost of financing 2,7 2,9 2,6 2,2 2,7 2,7 2,6 Labour regulations 2,7 2,9 2,4 2,4 2,8 2,6 2,8 Skills and education of available workers 3,1 2,9 2,3 2,4 2,9 2,7 2,9 Business licensing and permits Telecommunications, transportation and 2,8 3,0 2,8 2,5 2,8 2,7 2,6 2,7 3,3 3,1 2,1 3,1 2,7 2,9 electricity Access to land and title or leasing of land 2,9 3,2 3,2 2,5 2,9 2,8 2,7 Organised crime/mafia Social infrastructure which should enable 2,6 3,2 3,3 2,1 2,9 3,1 3,1 women to accept and develop leading 3,1 3,4 3,3 2,5 3,0 3,0 3,0 business positions Street crime, theft and violent crime 2,7 3,4 3,4 2,0 3,0 3,0 3,2 Risk of terrorism and violent conflicts 2,8 3,6 3,6 2,2 3,3 3,4 3,4 Major obstacles Migration crisis 2,8 3,8 3,8 2,9 3,4 3,5 3,5
Going forward 2017 turned out to be worse than expected Growth has slowed down in Serbia and even more in The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and also in Montenegro Political stability has remained elusive in most countries and regionally So, expectations, which were surging ahead of satisfaction, are bound to be corrected in the next survey
