Battery Lifetime Prediction
Prediction of battery lifetime in electric vehicles involves analyzing multiple failure causes. Survival analysis and Hidden Markov Models are used to estimate time to failure without identifying specific causes.
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Presentation Transcript
Battery Lifetime Prediction
Problem Statement Predicting remaining lifetime of a battery (e.g. in an EV) Can consider multiple causes of failure We assume that we are only interested in the time to failure, not the cause of the failure
Survival Analysis Used to model/predict mortality in medical studies, failure rates of components in engineering Want to know ? ? (probability of surviving to time ?) Kaplan-Meier: if ?1, ,??are observed failure times, then 1 ?? ? ? = , ? ?:? ??
Hidden Markov Model Markov chain ??, denoting predicted battery life after e.g. ? days (cannot observe directly) HMMs as a Bayesian network: Markov chain ??, with relevant factors that can be observed ?0 ?1 ?2 Hidden Want to find: ??+??0= ?0, ,??= ?? ?0 ?2 ?1 Observed
