Behavioral Issues in Environmental Modelling

BEHAVIOURAL BEHAVIOURAL ISSUES IN ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING THE MISSING PERSPECTIVE THE MISSING PERSPECTIVE ISSUES IN Raimo P. H m l inen Systems Analysis Laboratory Aalto University, School of Science Paper: Behavioural issues in environmental modelling - the missing perspective, Environmental Modelling & Software, 73, 2015, pp. 244-253.

Models Models in in environmental environmental management management Models and equations are free of behavioral effects but as soon as we use them in real life problem solving behavioral effects will be present. This missing perspective needs more attention!

Why Why consider consider behavioural behavioural issues issues? ? Improve the undestanding of decision modelling and processes. Improve model supported participatory planning and decision making. Avoid wrong conclusions which are driven by behavioural effects and biases. Improve the trustworthiness of modelling. Ethics in modelling. Produce better policies.

Model Model validity validity Science Science based based models The lure of objectivity The lure of objectivity models There exists one ideal model and a good specialist needs to find it Hidden assumption: A valid or science based model automatically produces a valid process and bias free objective results

Some Some modeling modeling areas areas have behavioral studies behavioral studies have a tradition in a tradition in

Early Global System Dynamics Early Global System Dynamics Models Included Social Models Included Social Behaviour Behaviour Donella Meadows The Limits to Growth 1972

Judgement and Decision making Judgement and Decision making Decision theory is not enough to explain human choices Axioms of rationality not followed Cognitive biases Bounded rationality (Herbert Simon) Prospect theory: gains and losses seen differently (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky) Heuristics (Gerd Gigerenzer) Systems 1 and 2 thinking (Evans, Stanovich, Kahneman) From: Kahneman and Tversky

Decision Decision Analysis: Analysis: The The Splitting Splitting B Bias ias Higher weight if environmental attribute is split into more detailed lower level attributes 1/6 1/6 Variation in water level Recreational fishing 1/6 2/6 Reproduction of fish Recreation 1/6 Dense bay vegetation 2/6 Nature 1/6 Shoreline vegetation 2/6 Economy 1/6 Economy Occurs e.g. when people give equal weights to all attributes

Splitting Splitting bias bias is is difficult difficult to to eliminate eliminate Students with debiasing guidance: no splitting bias Stakeholders: systematic bias, guidance did not help H m l inen and Alaja (2008)

Environmental Environmental valuation C Cost ost / / Benefit Benefit analysis valuation analysis Behavioural issues recognized Contingent valuation: Disparity Willingness to pay Willingness to - accept compensation Endowment effect Use values / non-use values Travel cost method is very problematic

Behavioural Behavioural O Operational perational R Research BOR BOR (H m l inen, Luoma (H m l inen, Luoma & Saarinen 2013) & Saarinen 2013) esearch Forthcoming Special Issue in EJOR Papers on different aspects of BOR Actors People, including stakeholders What happens in the process, learning Praxis Conceptual frameworks Methods Phenomena related to different types of problems e.g. simulation, decision making and forecasting BOR community www.bor.aalto.fi

Best practices in Best practices in environmental modelling modelling Acknowledgement that models can be used in different ways environmental Based on successful case studies So far, no behavioral research Comparison of best practices against each other? Can different processes lead to different outcomes? What are the benefits to the client?

Modellers Modellers are subject to cognitive are subject to cognitive biases biases Cognitive Dissonance: Cognitive Dissonance: the effect of simultaneously trying to believe in two incompatible things (model/real world) at the same time Commitment Bias: Commitment Bias: once we are publicly committed ourselves to a position (model) we find it difficult to retreat Man With A Hammer Syndrome Man With A Hammer Syndrome: people have a single tool, hammer, (model) and see every problem as a nail Overconfidence Overconfidence: we're way too confident in our abilities (models)

Behavioural Behavioural effects every stage in the every stage in the modelling effects can be related to can be related to modelling process process G.F. Laniak, G. Olchin, J. Goodall, A. Voinov, M. Hill, P. Glynn, G. Whelan, G. Geller, N. Quinn, M.Blind, S. Peckham, S. Reaney, N. Gaber, R. Kennedy, A. Hughes: Integrated environmental modeling: A vision and roadmap for the future, Environmental Modelling & Software, January 2013

Social group processes Social group processes Participatory modelling is social The client and the modeller are subject to behavioral effects Gender and cultural effects Facilitator styles, personality etc. Dialogue skills needed (Slotte & H m l inen, 2015) Groupthink overconfidence (Irving Janis, 1972) This is the right model Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Risk Risk of of Groupthink Groupthink in modeling modeling is in environmental environmental is high high Occus in groups with Desire of harmony, loyalty to the group (common goal to save the envinronment) Homogeneity of background, illusion of invulnerability (one modelling tradition) Stressful external threats (the complex environmental issue studied can produce pressures) Early paper: Groupthink tendencies in the US Forest Service prevented adaptation in environmental change (Kennedy, 1988)

Strategic Strategic behaviour behaviour Motivational interests of environmental modelers related to the problem at hand Political / social / cultural orientation can stimulate strategic goal-seeking behaviour Stakeholders can mispresent preferences (and even data) in negotiations Model boundaries and assumptions Cheaptalk costless information which can have an effect on the stakeholders and the process Can models be used as cheap talk?

Communication with and about Communication with and about models models Visual representation of system models are essential in communication Effects of graphs and scales used What is the effect of educational and cultural backgrounds of the problem owners? What can we learn from statistics? Is software development based on behavioral studies?

The The modeling modeling process creates a process creates a system system Formed by the interaction of the client and the modelling a team The facilitator needs to observe and understand this system to improve its performance Use Systems Intelligence: Your ability to successfully manage and engage with systems (Saarinen and H m l inen, 2004)

Adopting the behavioural lens What should we do first?

Research challenge Research challenge Comparative experimental research on problem solving and participatory processes is very difficult Real problems can seldom be approached repeatedly with the real decision makers Experiments with students a good first step

Sources of behavioural phenomena Ideas for research topics Things we can do in practice Modeler Professional skills in modelling, facilitation, communication and following best practices. Comparative studies of best practices. Implementation of best practices. Experiments with different modelers. Peer review of modeling processes. Awareness of modeler biases. Use devils advocates. Stakeholders and experts Judgmental and cognitive biases Biases related to expert judgement. The effects of mental models and framing. Discuss biases and guide the participants to avoid biases. Use more than one elicitation method. Use multiple experts. Valuation and elicitation of preferences How to improve and avoid biases in multi-attribute evaluation? Use more than one elicitation method. Consider ways of debiasing. Emotions How does the modelling process trigger emotions? Role of emotions in model based participation. Models can create fear and decrease trust. Present models in an enquiry mode rather than in an advocacy mode.

Sources of behavioural phenomena Ideas for research topics Things we can do in practice Communication Risk communication Do we understand model related risks? Do models introduce risks of false feelings of certainty. Explain model related uncertainties and limitations of assumptions and sources of data. Learning with modelling What kind of models are the most useful ones for learning in different situations. Use transparent and simplified models for learning and comprehensive models for problem solving. Communicating with models How to best describe model assumptions outputs and relationships. Evaluate by feedback if the model and results are understood correctly. Systemic Participation process Role of models and facilitator in system 1 or 2 thinking. Social media in model based participation process. Cultural effects. Are models gender sensitive. Interactive use of models in negotiations. Role of mental models and emotions in model supported processes. Raise awareness of the social processes taking place in modelling use. Discuss the mental models people can have. Negotiations and conflict resolution Focus on the transparency of models and processes used. Pay attention to the social processes. Take a systems intelligence approach.

Sources of behavioural phenomena Ideas for research topics Things we can do in practice Strategic behaviour Social interaction Impact of strategic communication related to modelling and goals. Beware of gaming and hidden agendas. Culture, gender, interest groups, organizational motives The occurrence of strategic behaviour. Beware of cultural effects. Pay attention to motivational biases and greenwashing by modeling. Modelling environments Can the choice of modelling approaches be used to advance or favour a specific outcome or result? What is the impact of the professional background of the modelers (economics, engineering, environmental). Can this generate implicit strategic behaviour to favour some modelling approaches. Is there a risk that model related choices are strategic. Use multiple modelers. Peer review of models. Beware of unintended biases.

Improving the understanding of Improving the understanding of behavioural issues and developing practitioner skills issues and developing practitioner skills with with the behavioral lens is a necessity in the behavioral lens is a necessity in environmental modelling. environmental modelling. behavioural Thank you! Thank you!

References and links References and links Presentation based on manuscript: R.P. H m l inen: Behavioural issues in environmental modelling - the missing perspective, Environmental Modelling & Software, 73, pp. 244-253. References: L.A. Franco and R.P. H m l inen: Behavioural operational research: Returning to the roots of the OR profession, Special Issue on Behavioural Operational Research, European Journal of Operational Research.2015 R.P. H m l inen and S. Alaja: The Threat of Weighting Biases in Environmental Decision Analysis Ecological Economics, 68, 2008: 556-569. R.P. H m l inen, J. Luoma and E. Saarinen: On the Importance of Behavioral Operational Research: The Case of Understanding and Communicating about Dynamic Systems European Journal of Operational Research, 228 (3), (2013): 623-634. R.P. H m l inen and T. J. Lahtinen: Path Dependence in Modelling and Operational Research - How the Modeling Process Can Influence the Results. 2015. Manuscript: http://sal.aalto.fi/publications/pdf- files/mham15c.pdf R.P. H m l inen and E. Saarinen: Systems intelligence - the way forward? A note on Ackoff s Why few organizations adopt systems thinking. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 2008, 25(6), 821-825.

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