Benchmarking Initiative for African Universities
This initiative aims to improve university performance through standardized data, enabling policy makers to assess progress and enhancing data management capacities. Key activities include pilot studies, workshops, and selecting a host institution for a regional data hub.
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US trade with China, Canada, and Mexico Torsten Slok, Rajvi Shah, and Shruti Galwankar tslok@apollo.com February 2025 Unless otherwise noted, information as of February 2025. Proprietary - Not for distribution, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc.
Legal Disclaimer Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. Apollo Global Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, Apollo ) makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein, including, but not limited to, information obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update the information to account for such changes. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in these materials are provided for reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice and does not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients. Certain information contained herein may be forward-looking in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such information. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, may , will , should , expect , anticipate , target , project , estimate , intend , continue or believe or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. 2 2 Private and Confidential
In 2000, the US was the main trade partner for most countries in the world Blue denotes higher share of trade with the US, Red denotes higher share of trade with China Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 3
In 2020, China is the main trade partner for most countries in the world Blue denotes higher share of trade with US, Red denotes higher share of trade with China Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 4
Trade share of GDP higher for Mexico and Canada compared to US and China % 90 Merchandise trade (% GDP) 80 US Mexico China Canada 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 199 196 196 196 196 196 197 197 197 197 197 198 198 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 200 200 2 0 2 4 6 8 0 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 Source: World Bank, Apollo Chief Economist 5
Canada, China and Mexico make up 43% of US imports and 40% of US exports % US Trade (2023) China Mexico Canada Rest of the World 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% US Imports US Exports Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 6
Share of Chinese exports to the US is 15% % % Share of Chinese exports to the US 22% 22% 20% 20% 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 14% 12% 12% Sep-18 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 09 Jan- 01 Jan- 03 Jan- 05 Jan- 07 Jan- 11 Jan- 13 Jan- 15 Jan- 17 Jan- 19 Jan- Jan- May- May- May- May- May- May- May- May- May- May- Sep- 00 18 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Source: Source: General Administration of Customs, China, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 7
US imports from China, by category % 35% US imports from China, by category 30% 30% 25% 20% 18% 15% 12% 10% 9% 10% 7% 5% 4% 5% 3% 1% 0% Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment and components Machinery (excluding electrical) Textile, apparels Chemicals & rubber Metal Transport equipment Leather & allied products Food Others Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. 8
US imports from Canada, by category % 30% US imports from Canada, by category 25% 25% 20% 18% 15% 11% 10% 10% 10% 7% 5% 5% 4% 5% 2% 2% 2% 0% Transport equipment Chemicals & rubber Machinery (excluding electrical) Wood products Petroleum and and paper Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment and components Oil and Gas Metal Food Agriculture Others coal products 9 Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist.
US imports from Mexico, by category % 40% US imports from Mexico, by category 34% 35% 30% 25% 20% 16% 14% 15% 9% 10% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 0% Transport equipment Computer & electronic products Electrical equipment and components Machinery (excluding electrical) Chemicals & rubber Metal Oil and Gas Agriculture Food Others Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. 10
Trade war leads to increased economic policy uncertainty Index 2000 Index US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Trade Policy 2000 1800 1800 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 Nov-21 0 Nov-95 Mar-13 86 Mar-87 Apr-88 91 Aug-92 Sep-93 Oct-94 Dec-96 Jan-98 Feb-99 Mar-00 Apr-01 04 Aug-05 Sep-06 Oct-07 Nov-08 Dec-09 Jan-11 Feb-12 Apr-14 17 Aug-18 Sep-19 Oct-20 Dec-22 Jan-85 Jan-24 Feb- May- 89 Jun- 90 Jul- May- 02 Jun- 03 Jul- May- 15 Jun- 16 Jul- Source: PolicyUncertainty,com, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 11
US imports from China have declined over the past decade and Mexican imports have risen % 30% % 30% China (ls) Mexico Canada 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 22 Jul-08 92 Nov-93 Oct-94 Sep-95 Aug-96 Jul-97 Jun-98 00 Mar-01 Feb-02 Jan-03 Dec-03 Nov-04 Oct-05 Sep-06 Aug-07 Jun-09 11 Mar-12 Feb-13 Jan-14 Dec-14 Nov-15 Oct-16 Sep-17 Aug-18 Jul-19 Jun-20 Mar-23 Jan-92 Feb-24 Dec- May- 99 Apr- May- 10 Apr- May- 21 Apr- Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. 12
Mexico is the main US manufacturing trading partner Share of total US manufacturing trade % % Canada China Mexico COVID-19 pandemic begins US tariffs on Chinese exports announced 21 21 19 19 17 17 15 15 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 Mar-02 Mar-03 Sep-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Sep-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Sep-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Sep-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-10 Sep-16 Sep-21 Sep-09 Sep-03 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-20 Sep-23 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-21 Mar-22 Sep-02 Sep-08 Sep-19 Sep-14 Sep-07 Sep-12 Sep-18 Sep-24 Source: Census Bureau, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Seasonally adjusted, quarterly data. Total manufacturing trade = exports + imports of manufacturing. 13
Canada, China and Mexico make up roughly 50% of US motor vehicle imports and exports % Motor vehicle exports and imports Mexico China Canada Rest of the World 100% 90% 80% 48% 52% 70% 60% 50% 8% 1% 7% 40% 31% 30% 20% 38% 10% 17% 0% Motor vehicle exports Motor vehicle imports Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 14
China leads global car production % 40% Share of global passenger car production 38% 35% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 11% 10% 7% 6% 5% 3% 0% China Japan India Germany US Others Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, Apollo Chief Economist. 15
Impact of tariffs on the US economy 25% Canada and Mexico Tariffs and 10% China Tariffs Impact from Canada/Mexico Tariffs Impact from China Tariffs Total Canada/Mexico China GDP -0.4% -0.3% -0.1% Full-Time Equivalent Employment -344000 -286000 -58000 Source: Trump Tariffs: The Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War, Tax Foundation, Apollo Chief Economist 16
41% of revenue in S&P 500 companies comes from abroad % 44 % Share of S&P 500 revenues from outside the US 44 42 42 40 40 38 38 36 36 34 34 32 32 30 30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: Factset, Apollo Chief Economist 17
Torsten Slok joined Apollo in August 2020 as Chief Economist and he leads Apollo's macroeconomic and market analysis across the platform. Prior to joining, Mr. Slok worked for 15 years as Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank where his team was top ranked in the annual Institutional Investor survey for a decade. Prior to joining Deutsche Bank Mr. Slok worked at the IMF in Washington, DC and at the OECD in Paris. Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist Apollo Global Management tslok@apollo.com Mr. Slok has a Ph.D in Economics and has studied at the University of Copenhagen and Princeton University. 18
