Brazil-China Relations and Development in the 21st Century

2023 IIPPE ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2023 IIPPE ANNUAL CONFERENCE PRE PRE- -CONFERENCE WORKSHOP: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CHINA S CONFERENCE WORKSHOP: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CHINA S DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY SEPTEMBER 05, 2023 SEPTEMBER 05, 2023 Madrid, Spain Madrid, Spain Brazil x China Relations and Notes to the Global South Elias Jabbour Advisor to the President and Research Department of New Development Bank (NDB) Associate Professor in Political Economy and Planning. Rio de Janeiro State University. School of Economics emkjabbour@gmail.com

1. The point The idea is to demonstrate the history of relations between Brazil and China, pointing out the limits of an unequal relationship and the possibilities of a marriage of two great national projects. From this perspective, should point to the fact that the future of the Global South depends on a great integration in productive, financial, investment and trade terms of their countries.

2. Brazilian path Figure 1. Brazil: share of industry in GDP (1947-2018)

2. Brazilian Path - Most dynamic capitalist economy, in terms of economy growth, between 1930 and 1980; - Debt crisis (1980) - Neoliberalism (Collor and Fernando Henrique Cardoso) - institutional changes in order to Stabilization consense - Towards a new national project (Lula da Silva and Dilma) - 2016 Coup - new wave of institutional changes in order to change the accumulation dynamic based in overexplotation of the work, criminalization of fiscal policy etc - Share of industrial products in Brazilian exports fall 43% in 2020 (worst result of history) - Combination between higher interest rates of the world and evaluate currency - The most powerful agricultural industry of the world

3. Chinese Path

3. Chinese Path - Productive, comercial and financial power - Investment rate above 40% of GDP since 2003 - Strong urbanization process: 200 million people moved to urban areas in the last 10 Years - Market socialism : new socioeconomic formation emerged since 1978 - Inauguration of a new National System of Technological Innovation - Disruptive innovations, new and higher forms of economic planning - New Projectment Economy: present historical form of socialism, Science-Led Government (realization of what Marx, in Grundrisse, called scientific objectified knowledge ) - New Globalization?

4. A new dependence? Figure 2: Main destinations of Brazilian exports Source: Atlas of Economic Complexity

4. A new dependence? Table 1: Brazil exports to China Products Value (US$ Billions) Year Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruits 31,85 2022 Ores slag and ash 18,79 2022 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products 16,89 2022 Meat and edible meat offal 10,42 2022 Pulp of wood, fibrous cellulosic material, waste 3,33 2022 Sugars and sugar confectionery 1,69 2022

5. Political questions for Global South - China is a great opportunity for Global South and our Independence - Problem: lack of strategy, foreign trade planned - Good examples: Iran, Bolivia, Etiopia, Argentina etc - Transition to socialism: great integration in productive, financial, investment and trade terms of their countries.