Brexit on the UK Economy through Data
Explore 15 informative charts depicting the effects of Brexit on the UK economy, covering areas such as GDP growth, inflation rates, employment trends, and non-UK nationals in the labor market. Gain insights into the economic landscape from 2003 to 2016.
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Presentation Transcript
Brexit and the UK Economy In 15 Charts
Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK Real GDP for the UK, quarterly level (left hand scale, billion) and quarterly growth (right hand scale, per cent) 490 2 1.5 470 1 450 0.5 430 0 -0.5 410 -1 390 -1.5 370 -2 350 -2.5 2011 Q3 2013 Q1 2003 Q3 2004 Q1 2004 Q3 2005 Q1 2005 Q3 2006 Q1 2006 Q3 2007 Q1 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q1 2014 Q3 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2016 Q1 Growth (%) Levels ( billion) Source: ONS
CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: September 2006 to September 2016 Annual Rate of Consumer Price Inflation for the UK (per cent) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Jul-07 May-08 Jul-12 May-13 Oct-08 Mar-09 Oct-13 Mar-14 Sep-06 Jan-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Jan-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Dec-07 Dec-12 Feb-07 Aug-09 Jun-10 Sep-11 Feb-12 Aug-14 Jun-15 Sep-16 Source: ONS
Male and Female Employment Rates in the UK from 1971 to 2016 Employment rates (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted, per cent of population of working age 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Mar-May 2014 Nov-Jan 1977 Nov-Jan 1984 Nov-Jan 1991 Nov-Jan 1998 Nov-Jan 2005 Nov-Jan 2012 Sep-Nov 1975 Sep-Nov 1982 Sep-Nov 1989 Sep-Nov 1996 Sep-Nov 2003 Sep-Nov 2010 Jan-Mar 1971 Jan-Mar 1978 Jan-Mar 1985 Jan-Mar 1992 Jan-Mar 1999 Jan-Mar 2006 May-Jul 2008 Jan-Mar 2013 Mar-May 1972 Mar-May 1979 Mar-May 1986 Mar-May 1993 Mar-May 2000 Jul-Sep 2002 Mar-May 2007 May-Jul 1973 May-Jul 1980 May-Jul 1987 May-Jul 1994 May-Jul 2001 May-Jul 2015 Jul-Sep 1974 Jul-Sep 1981 Jul-Sep 1988 Jul-Sep 1995 Jul-Sep 2009 People Men Women Source: ONS
Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market Non-UK nationals working in the UK, thousands, data is not seasonally adjusted, source: Labour Force Survey 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Apr - Jun 2003 Apr - Jun 1997 Apr - Jun 1998 Apr - Jun 1999 Apr - Jun 2000 Apr - Jun 2001 Apr - Jun 2002 Apr - Jun 2004 Apr - Jun 2005 Apr - Jun 2006 Apr - Jun 2007 Apr - Jun 2008 Apr - Jun 2009 Apr - Jun 2010 Apr - Jun 2011 Apr - Jun 2012 Apr - Jun 2013 Apr - Jun 2014 Apr - Jun 2015 Apr - Jun 2016 Oct - Dec 1999 Oct - Dec 2006 Oct - Dec 1997 Oct - Dec 1998 Oct - Dec 2000 Oct - Dec 2001 Oct - Dec 2002 Oct - Dec 2003 Oct - Dec 2004 Oct - Dec 2005 Oct - Dec 2007 Oct - Dec 2008 Oct - Dec 2009 Oct - Dec 2010 Oct - Dec 2011 Oct - Dec 2012 Oct - Dec 2013 Oct - Dec 2014 Oct - Dec 2015 Total EU nationals Total non-EU nationals Source: ONS
Growth Rates of Components of UK Aggregate Demand before, during and after the global downturn Components of UK Aggregate Demand, quarterly % growth rates 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -0.8 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -2.0 -2.1 -2.5 -3.0 -3.5 -3.3 Gross Consumption Government consumption Exports Imports Real GDP Investment Pre-downturn Downturn Post-downturn Source: ONS
UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally adjusted, June to August 2016 Labour Force Survey Unemployment Rate (% of labour force, June-Aug 2016) North East 6.8 London 6.1 West Midlands 5.9 Yorkshire and The Humber 5.9 Northern Ireland 5.5 North West 5.1 UK 4.9 Scotland 4.6 East Midlands 4.5 Wales 4.3 South West 4.2 East 3.9 South East 3.7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Source: ONS 8
Average UK house price, January 2005 to August 2016, not seasonally adjusted UK average house price ( s) source: Land Registry 240000 220000 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 2009 May 2014 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2015 May 2016 May 2007 Jan 2005 Sep 2006 Sep 2007 Sep 2008 Sep 2009 Sep 2010 Sep 2011 Sep 2012 Sep 2013 Sep 2014 Sep 2015 Sep 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan Source: ONS
Productivity: Constant price GDP per hour for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015 GDP per hour worked worked Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015 110 105 100 95 90 85 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK USA Source: IMF
Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for UK Quarterly growth of Real GDP and Real GDP per head for the UK, indexed from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 = 100 110 105 100 95 90 85 Q3 2010 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Real GDP GDP Per Head Source: ONS
Economic Growth for the UK and the EU(28) GDP growth rates (per cent) quarter-on-corresponding-quarter-of- previous-year for the UK and the European Union (EU) 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Q2 2009 Q1 2014 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 UK EU Source: ONS
UK Bond Yields during 2016 Yields on UK gilts at selected maturities (per cent) 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 06 Jun 16 13 Jun 16 20 Jun 16 27 Jun 16 04 Apr 16 11 Apr 16 18 Apr 16 25 Apr 16 02 May 16 09 May 16 16 May 16 23 May 16 30 May 16 04 Jan 16 11 Jan 16 18 Jan 16 25 Jan 16 07 Mar 16 14 Mar 16 21 Mar 16 28 Mar 16 01 Feb 16 08 Feb 16 15 Feb 16 22 Feb 16 29 Feb 16 01 Aug 16 08 Aug 16 15 Aug 16 22 Aug 16 29 Aug 16 05 Sep 16 12 Sep 16 19 Sep 16 26 Sep 16 03 Oct 16 10 Oct 16 17 Oct 16 24 Oct 16 04 Jul 16 11 Jul 16 18 Jul 16 25 Jul 16 2-year 10-year 30-year Source: HM Treasury
Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number) UK Exchange Rate Indices, 2nd Jan 2014 = 100 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 02 Aug 15 02 Jan 16 02 Nov 14 02 Mar 15 02 Nov 15 02 Feb 14 02 Sep 14 02 Feb 15 02 Sep 15 02 Feb 16 02 Sep 16 02 Jan 14 02 Mar 14 02 Apr 14 02 Jul 14 02 Jan 15 02 Apr 15 02 Jul 15 02 Mar 16 02 Apr 16 02 Jul 16 02 May 14 02 Aug 14 02 Oct 14 02 May 15 02 May 16 02 Jun 16 02 Aug 16 02 Dec 14 02 Dec 15 02 Jun 14 02 Jun 15 02 Oct 15 02 Oct 16 Sterling ERI / $/ Source: Bank of England
UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP) UK Trade Balances by Sector, % of GDP, Source: ONS 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 1998 Q1 1998 Q4 1999 Q3 2000 Q2 2001 Q1 2001 Q4 2002 Q3 2003 Q2 2004 Q1 2004 Q4 2005 Q3 2006 Q2 2007 Q1 2007 Q4 2008 Q3 2009 Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2011 Q3 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q2 2012 Q2 2016 Q1 Financial services Other services Goods Trade balance Source: ONS
UK Current Account Components (% of GDP) Components of the UK Current Account of the Balance of Payments, (quarterly data, % of GDP) 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 -12.0 -14.0 -16.0 2007 Q3 2011 Q4 2014 Q1 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 Trade balance Primary income Secondary income Current account balance Source: Bank of England
Contributions to CPI Inflation (%) Contributions to UK CPI Inflation (%) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 Jul 2011 Jul 2012 Jul 2014 Jul 2015 Jul 2016 Jan 2011 Apr 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Oct 2011 Oct 2012 Oct 2013 Oct 2014 Oct 2015 Jul 2013 Apr 2015 Services (48%) Food and non-alcoholic beverages (10%) Electricity and gas (4%) Fuels and lubricants (3%) Other goods(b) (35%) Source: ONS
