Britain's Role in a Changing World

1 7/8/18 JW ANSWERING DEAN ACHESON S QUESTION; BRITAIN HAS LOST AN EMPIRE AND NOT YET FOUND A ROLE * PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE DIRECTOR, CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF PUBLIC POLICY BREXIT AND BEYOND: IMPLICATIONS FOR BRITISH POLITICS AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION: BPG BOSTON 29 AUGUST 2018 *1962: quoted in Rose, 1964 , 2018

2 ALTERNATIVE THEORIES OF BRITAIN S ROLE IN THE WORLD *Hold the Balance of Power: Eyre Crowe, 1907 (Otte, 2003). * 3 Circles of Influence: Special relationship with the US;with the Commonwealth: with Europe (Churchill and Blair, but see Rose, 2001). *Unicorn Vision of Brexiters: UK central to US and Commonwealth. Leave out Europe Can t disprove until after Withdrawal *Remainers: Suicide of a Nation Again (cf. Gwyn and Rose, 1980) Remainrs reduces Britain s global trade, defence, immigration to Europe *Muddling through : To attain one s end in spite of blunder upon blunder. (Onions, 1936: 1294)

3 ALTERNATIVE WAYS OF MUDDLING THROUGH *Unilaterally: England as a Pond in Itself But part of the islands of Britain and Ireland *Collective polic making through collective institutions, e.g. EU, IMF, UN *Organized anarchy: a garbage can theory (Cohen, March & Olsen, 1972) *An interactive model of interdependent policymaking (Rose, 2014) .

4 PRIORITY UK POLICY AREAS INVOLVE INTERDEPENDENCE *Economy: Foreign exchange. Trade. Deficit. Labour supply * Multi-culturalism: Immigration * Domestic security: Crime. Terrorism * International security * Interdependent links vary with function.

5 MAJOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL LINKS OF UK EU NOT A MEMBER *Security Council of the United Nations: Permanent Seat *NATO: Third-largest military force and first in trust of Pentagon and CIA *CITY OF LONDON, :Leverage world s fifth-largest economy *IMF: Executive Board: Fifth-largest vote. *WORLD BANK: Executive Director: Third largest *OSCE: Organization for Security & Cooperation in Europe: Member state. *OECD: Member state *Council of Europe: Member state UK AND EU BOTH MEMBERS *World Trade Organisation *European Bank for Reconstruction & Development (Cf. Rose, 2015: Table 8.1; Global Britain: Government Response, 2018)

6 SOFT UK RESOURCES FOR INTERDEPENDENCE *Able civil service *Use of English as an international lingua franca *Opinion-forming media: BBC World News. Economist. FT *Many international-standard researchers in UK universities *UK graduates from many countries prominent globally (Cf. Portland and USC Centre on Public Diplomacy, 2018)

7 LIMITATIONS ON INFLUENCE IN INTERDEPENDENT SYSTEMS GIVEN *Voting rules: British politics is winner-take-all while interdependent decisions require a multi- national coalition. *Weak power of many intergovernmental institutions; coalitions of willing required *Population: Too big to be a small, rich state Too small to be a super-power *Ignores where EFL speakers (English as a Foreign Language) are coming from (Rose, 2008) SELF-IMPOSED *Confusion of what is distinctive in values of being English, British, English-speaking rather than common to Western or OECD nations or UN declaration of values *Ignores differences between immigrants from European, New Commonwealth. ESU *Seeks to be the power behind a non-existent Hegemon. *Special relationship with White House a one-hour event *Introverted SW 1 political discourse fixated on personalities, 24/7 media and solipsistic meetings with foreigners *Substantial popular distrust of elected representatives, parties.

8 BRITISH PEOPLE PERCEIVE GLOBAL RISKS; UNCERTAIN OF ALLIES Q. WHO CAN BEST HELP BRITAIN DEAL WITH MAJOR POLICIES? UN EU USA Looks after ourselves Problem DK (per cent) Global economy Military threats 8 18 6 46 22 26 8 20 26 20 Immigration 6 19 1 59 15 Terrorism Average ______________________________________________________ 23 11 14 34 18 16 14 10 41 19 (BMG Research, 2016; cf Bevington, 2018)

9 CONTINGENT OPPORTUNITIES *International demand for a country to fill the vacuum created by US abandoning leadership role Russia, China unacceptable. France over-ambitious *ABC (Australia, Britain, Canada) leadership Covers three continents with US. China. Europe as respective neighbours Combined population 11th in world Combined GDP fourth biggest bloc--but one-half or one-third USA, China or EU *International test cricket network: 12 countries Combined population more than 1.8 billion Members on four continents GDP $10 trillion, twice that of ABC , more than double UK *Socialism in one country : Corbyn & Seamus Milne LONG-SHOT POSSIBILITIES *UK breaks up: Scottish independence a challenge to Westminster. N. Ireland a relief *Eurozone/EU breaks up

CITATIONS 10 Bevington, Matthew, 2018. Leave Voters Do Not Want a Global Britain . www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics. Accessed 3 August 218. BMG Research, 2016. Birmingham: Online survey of a stratified sample of 1,517 respondents, 17-23 February 2016. Cohen, Michael D., March, James G. and Olsen, Johan P., 1972. "A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice", Administrative Science Quarterly, 17, 1, 1-25. Global Britain, 2018. London: House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee HC 780. Global Britain: Government Response, 2018. London: House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, HC 1326. Gwyn, William B and Rose, Richard, ed. 1980. Britain: Progress and Decline. London: Macmillan. Onions, C.T., ed., 1936. The Shorter Oxford English Dictionary on Historical Principles. Oxford: Clarendon Press, Volume 1: A-M, 1294 Otte, T.G., 2003. Almost a Law of Nature? . In Erik Goldstein and Brian McKercher, Brian, eds., , Power and Stability: British Foreign Policy, 1865-1965. London: Frank Cass, 77-118. Portland and USC Center on Public Diplomacy, 2018. The Soft Power 30. https://softpower30.com/, accessed 3 August 2018. Rose, Richard, 1964. Politics in England. Boston: Little Brown & Co. Revised 2018: Politics in Britain . In G.B. Powell et al ., Comparative Politics Today: a World View, 12th ed., New York: Pearson, 132-173. Rose, Richard, 2001. The Prime Minister in a Shrinking World. Oxford and Boston: Polity Press. Rose, Richard, 2008. "Political Communication in a European Public Space , Journal of Common Market Studies, 46,2, March, 2008, 451-475. Rose, Richard, 2014. Responsible Party Government in a World of Interdependence . West European Politics, 37,2, 253- 269. Rose, Richard, 2015. Representing Europeans: a Pragmatic Approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2nd edition.