Canadian Automotive Industry Overview and NAFTA Megatrends Analysis
Explore the Canadian automotive industry overview, global production trends, NAFTA megatrends, and NAFTA light vehicle production analysis from 2009 to 2021. Gain insights into key drivers, constraints, and future outlook for the automotive sector in North America.
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Canadian Automotive Industry Overview Italian Trade Commission Webinar Canada December 9, 2014 GS Global Solutions
Global LV Production (2009 2021) 2021 = 107.6 Million 80,000,000 Middle-East/Africa 60,000,000 Asia-Pacific 40,000,000 Eastern Europe Western Europe 20,000,000 South America 0 North America 2014 2021 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 VS. 2013 Growth 2021 vs. 2009 CAGR 2021 vs. 2013 CAGR 2013 (Mil) 2021 (Mil) Region NA 16.18 18.69 15.5% 6.7% 1.8% SA 4.57 6.08 33.2% 4.3% 3.6% WE 12.54 15.40 22.9% 2.1% 2.6% EE 6.76 8.00 18.5% 4.2% 2.1% AP 43.48 58.43 34.4% 6.0% 3.8% ME/A 0.75 1.03 38.1% 6.9% 4.1% TOTAL 84.26 107.62 27.7% 5.2% 3.1% Source: AutoForecast Solutions October 2014 GS Global Solutions
Global LV Production (2009 2021) 20,000,000 Asia-Pacific Removed 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 Middle-East/Africa 12,000,000 Eastern Europe 10,000,000 Western Europe 8,000,000 South America 6,000,000 North America 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2012 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3 Source: AutoForecast Solutions October 2014 GS Global Solutions
NAFTA Megatrends New NAFTA Environmental Regulations Smaller, lighter vehicles, with upgraded fuel-efficient powertrains. Will people want to drive much smaller vehicles? Will vehicle profit be high enough to justify investment? 2017-2025 standards require a 65% improvement in fuel economy over current levels. Higher consumer ownership and operating cost. Will consumers accept paying more possibly much more for transportation? How de we as suppliers support global platforms and still look after local business opportunities? GS Global Solutions 4
NAFTA Auto Outlook Key drivers, enablers and constraints 2013 2014-16 Employment/Income Growth Driving Age Population Growth Age of Fleet Ownership and Operating Cost Affluence/Financial Stability Technology Fuel Economy Regs Supply Chain Constraints GS Global Solutions 5 Source: AutomotiveCompass
NAFTA LV Production (2009 2021) 20,000,000 15,000,000 United States 10,000,000 Mexico 5,000,000 Canada 0 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 VS. 2013 Growth 2021 vs. 2009 CAGR 2021 vs. 2013 CAGR Region 2013 (Mil) 2021 (Mil) Canada 2.37 1.80 -24.0% 1.7% -3.4% Mexico 2.93 4.33 48.2% 9.1% 5.0% United States 10.88 12.55 15.3% 6.9% 1.8% TOTAL NA 16.18 18.68 15.5% 6.7% 1.8% 6 Source: AutoForecast Solutions October 2014 GS Global Solutions
NAFTA LV Production (2009 2021) 100% 90% 18.7M (2021) 80% 70% 60% United States 50% Mexico 40% Canada 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 7 Canada NAFTA Market Share Declining Source: AutoForecast Solutions October 2014 GS Global Solutions
NAFTA LV Production (2009 2021) 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 Canada Mexico 8,000,000 United States 6,000,000 Continued gap increase 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2011 2013 2015 2009 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 Source: AutoForecast Solutions October 2014 GS Global Solutions
NAFTA LV Production (2009 2021) 20,000,000 Region 2013 2021 Canada 14.7% 9.6% 15,000,000 Michigan & Southern US 40.0% 40.7% 10,000,000 Mexico 18.1% 23.2% 5,000,000 Rest of United States 27.3% 26.5% 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Canada Michigan Southern US Mexico Mexico growing at the expense of Canada 9 Source: AutoForecast Solutions October 2014 GS Global Solutions
Canadian Production Facilities 5 Major OEMS GM, Ford, Chrysler, Honda and Toyota GM 2 plants in Oshawa (Camaro, Regal, Impala, XTS), CAMI Facility in Ingersoll (Equinox/Terrain) Ford Oakville (Edge, MKX, Flex, MKT), St. Thomas (Crown Vic, Grand Marquis, Town Car closed Sep 11) Chrysler Brampton (300C, Charger, Challenger, Lancia Thema), Windsor (Caravan, T&C, Lancia GV, Routan) Toyota Cambridge (RX, Corolla, Matrix), Woodstock (RAV4) Honda Alliston 1 & 2 (Civic, CR-V) GS Global Solutions
Canadian LV Production (2009 2021) 2,500,000 2,000,000 Toyota 1,500,000 Honda 1,000,000 GM 500,000 Ford 0 Fiat-Chrysler 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 VM 2013 2021 Volume Diff (2021 vs. 2013) Fiat-Chrysler 572K 557K -15K Ford 258K 246K -12K GM 627K 133K -494K Honda 408K 394K -14K Toyota 505K 470K -35K 11 TOTAL 2,371K 1,773K -570K Source: AutoForecast Solutions October 2014 GS Global Solutions
Top20 Country Ranking 2013-2021 2013 Rank 2013 Volume 2021 Rank 2021 Volume China 20,905,245 10,884,072 9,194,394 5,650,674 4,463,220 3,674,104 3,489,242 2,925,621 2,651,035 2,370,493 2,019,361 1,909,115 1,722,558 1,519,230 China 32,157,310 12,327,504 9,719,592 6,176,447 5,472,900 4,839,542 4,677,959 4,395,016 2,989,325 2,844,354 2,362,894 2,144,283 1,929,163 1,841,158 United States Japan Germany South Korea India Brazil Mexico Thailand Canada Spain Russia France United Kingdom United States Japan Germany India Brazil South Korea Mexico Thailand Spain Russia France United Kingdom Indonesia 10 15 Indonesia Turkey Czech Republic Slovakia Argentina Italy 1,134,732 1,089,132 1,071,936 866,594 781,940 647,521 Canada 1,772,480 1,398,801 1,261,532 1,147,945 1,005,616 880,392 Czech Republic Turkey Italy Slovakia Argentina <3 positions moved UP 3+ position moves UP No Change <3 positions moved DOWN 3+ position moves DOWN Source: AutoForecast Solutions July 2014 GS Global Solutions 12
Sales of Canadian-Assembled AP Vehicles Honda Thru October 2014 70% of domestic Honda car sales are Canadian-built. 62% of domestic Honda Light Trucks are Canadian-built. Toyota Thru October 2014 61% of domestic Toyota car sales are Canadian-built. 40% of domestic Toyota Light Trucks are Canadian-built. Lexus Thru October 2014 88% of domestic Lexus Light Trucks are Canadian-built. Source: Global Automakers of Canada (GAC) October 2014 GS Global Solutions
Canada: Production Risk From most stable to most risky Honda/Toyota Production supports NAFTA consumption Only location for RAV4 production in NAFTA Strong domestic supply chain Ford Oakville ONLY source of Edge, Flex, MKT, MKX New investment in global Edge program FCA Windsor only source for Minivans Bramalea only source for Challenger, Charger, 300 (NAFTA) GM All Canadian-built vehicles can be built elsewhere! Equinox 4 Locations in NAFTA Terrain - 2 locations in NAFTA; exiting Canada in 2017 Camaro LEAVING Canada Prod in late 2015 Regal LEAVING Canada Prod 2017 Impala LEAVING Canada Prod late 2019 XTS Replaced by LTS in 2016/2017 (Hamtramck/China) Source: AutoForecast Solutions July 2014 GS Global Solutions
Top 20 Country Analysis(2013 vs. 2021) Million Units of Production Primary rank by 2013 2021 Ranking Moves 0 10 20 30 -5 0 5 China South Korea (#7) United States Japan India (#5) Germany South Korea Brazil (#6) India Brazil Mexico Thailand Canada Spain Russia France Canada (#15) Spain (#10) Russia (#11) France (#12) United Kingdom (#13) United Kingdom Indonesia Indonesia (#14) Turkey (#17) Turkey Czech Republic Slovakia Argentina Czech Republic (#16) Slovakia (#19) Italy Argentina (#20) Italy (#18) 15 2013 2021 Source: AutoForecast Solutions October 2014 GS Global Solutions
Canadian Complete Vehicle vs. Parts Exports GS Global Solutions
Why is Canada the best place in the G7 to do business? Strongest Economic Growth in the G7 The Soundest Banking System in the World The Lowest Business Costs in the G7 1 The International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook April 2010. 2 The World Economic Forum. The Global Competitiveness Report 2010 - 2011. 3 KPMG. Competitive Alternatives 2010. GS Global Solutions
Canadian Connected Vehicle Expertise Connected Vehicle APMA Automotive Parts Manufacturers ITS Canada Intelligent Transportation Systems EMC First Responders Police/ Fire/ Ambulance Government Electric Mobility Canada Federal & Provincial CTA OTA CUTA Academia Canadian & Ontario Trucking Associations Canadian Urban Transit Association University Researchers GS Global Solutions
Global Supplier Trends 1. Customer Facing Focus 10. Core Competencies 2. Growth Increasing the Value of the Business 3. Cost Reduction 9. Systems & Modules 4. Technology 8. Globalization 5. Brand Management 7. Resource Pressure 6. Supply-Chain Transformation GS Global Solutions
