Climate Policy Coordination in Brazil's Semiarid Region

Policy Policy mapping mappingand Policy mix and Policy mix Examples Examplesof of methods methodsabout about climate climate policy policycoordination in coordination in Brazil s Brazil s semiarid semiaridregion region Carolina Milhorance, Eric Sabourin, Priscylla Mendes, Jean-Fran ois Le-Coq Montpellier, february 2020 1

Articulating policy mixes across scales & sectors to address adaptation to climate change challenges in vulnerable tropical agricultural landscapes Objective Determine the conditions of successful design and implementation of articulated adaptation to Climate Change (CC) policy mixes in order to foster ecological transition. WP2. Identify the enabling and limiting factors for effective implementation of CC adaptation policies, considering their coordination and interactions with sectorial policies; Methods - Location of the study in Brazil : area and data collection Petrolina and Juazeiro region Data Data collection collection and Semi-structured interviews with policymakers at the national, state, and local levels (N=88) (10/2018 04/2019) Online survey (N=106) (05/2019) Qualitative and network analysis (Ucinet) and analysis analysis 2

Background - Emergence of the climate adaptation agenda COP16 COP16 Adaptation 2010 2010 COP12 COP12 REDD Rio+20 Rio+20 Conference Conference Rio Rio Kyoto Kyoto Protocol Protocol COP21 COP21 iNDC Conference Conference 2006 2006 2012 2012 1992 1992 1997 1997 2015 2015 COP15 COP15 REDD+ International International 2009 2009 Brazil Brazil Brazil s advocacy for CDM 2000 2000 2019 2019 2013 2013 Adaptation Working Group announcement for REDD Civil society forum Bolsonaro: climatoscpectic phase 2008 2008 2016 2016 National National Adaptation Adaptation Plan Plan National Plan on National Plan on Climate ClimateChange 1999 1999 Change CIM CIM Interministerial Commission on Climate Change Focus on mitigation (II) Focus on mitigation (II) REDD+, voluntary GHG reduction targets Amazon Amazon region deforestationcontrol Ministry of Environment, and Science &Technology, environmental NGOs Mitigation & Adaptation Mitigation & Adaptation National Adaptation Plan Ministry of Environment, and Science & Technology, Sectoral agendas Regional vulnerabilities Northeast region region Focus on mitigation (I) Focus on mitigation (I) Clean Development Mechanisms, Kyoto Annex II Against carbon credit for avoided deforestation Ministry of External Relations in international negotiations and domestic agriculture lobby region/ Northeast

Methods - Mapping programs implemented in the region Allocation of public funds (2013-2018) Plan Program Instrument ABC Plan ABC credit line; Pronaf Eco Credit to transform productive systems One Million Rural Cisterns Programme (P1MC); One Land Two Waters (P1+2) Water infrastructure state programs (ProRural, Bahia Produtiva, ProSemiarido) NAP Plan Decentralized water infrastructure Technical assistance to restore native vegetation Desertification control program The Harvest Guarantee Programme (over 50% of harvest failure); The Family Farming Insurance (SEAF); Climate-related insurance Climate resilient productive clusters Regional development clusters (goat farming and bee keeping) Family farming credit line (Pronaf, Agroamigo) Rural credit The Food Acquisition Programme (PAA); The School Feeding Programme (PNAE) Food public procurement (commercialization) The Development Programme (Programa Fomento); The Green Grant Programme (Bolsa Verde); The Family Grant Programme (Bolsa Familia) Cash transfer (social protection) 4

Results - Policy mix for climate adaptation in the semiarid region Typology of instrument interactions Originally developed in economic policy debates, the term policy mix implies a focus on the interactions and interdependencies between policy instruments as they affect the extent to which policy goals are pursued CLIMATE ADAPTATION CLIMATE ADAPTATION INSTRUMENTS INSTRUMENTS ENABLING INSTRUMENTS ENABLING INSTRUMENTS COMPLEMENTARY COMPLEMENTARY INSTRUMENTS INSTRUMENTS Direct Programmatic coherence (consistency) conditionality (enabling) CAR Rural Family farming registry Goals of an instrument are consistent with the goals of another instrument, regardless of formal link interconnected instruments are ideally consistent with the core instruments in a policy mix Synergy environmental registry Formal condition to implement other instrument often authority instruments that define target public and enable other instruments Instruments that reinforce the outcome of another instrument (reciprocal) S.I.M. 001/01 Sanitary inspection Land title CADUNICO Registry of vulnerable groups PRONAF ECO Green credit Support to climate resilient clusters Cash transfer Public Drought insuranc e Indirect conditionality (facilitating) procurement from family farming ATER Technical assistance Inputs and cash to family farmers Agricultural zoning of climate risk Decentralized rainwater infrastructure Non-coercive condition that facilitates other instruments ( works better ) often nodality instruments Caatinga restoratio n Instruments that reinforce generic-adaptive capacities often treasure and organization instruments Technology developme nt Instruments that reinforce specific adaptive capacities treasure instruments such as direct spending and financial incentives were identified

Results - Policy mix for climate adaptation in the semiarid region Instruments coordination and implementation challenges Main challenges according to policymakers (N=106) Challenges of policy coordination 12% Insufficient human resources 16% Insuff icient infor mat Operational/ bureaucratic issues 19% Challenges of coordination among managing institutions 13% Political disputes/ divergences 8% Insufficient financial resources 29% Other 1% 47% - Resources (financial, human, information) 25% - Coordination (actors, programs) 19% - Bureaucracy 8% - Political disputes

Results - Policy mix for climate adaptation in the semiarid region Instruments coordination and implementation challenges Need to acknowledge conditional instruments: Need to acknowledge conditional instruments: Technical assistance to assure maintenance and water quality in rainwater cisterns; Sanitary registry (and establishment of slaughterhouses) to develop goat farming clusters; Technical assistance to promote access to green credit lines (high technical requirements and/or low degree of information); Green credit lines could be combined with agroclimatic zonings and insurances; Insufficient regard for climate Insufficient regard for climate- -related risks: Drought-related insurances are emergency measures that became recurrent support to crops which are not adapted to climate variability/ drought (e.g. corn); Rainwater cisterns are key instruments to cope with drought, but they are not sufficient to face climate challenges need to include climate projections and local evaluations in planning and distribution; related risks: Political disputes: Political disputes: Concurrence between green rural credit lines and traditional lines (interest rates); Concurrence between local operators for installing rainwater cisterns (and related methodologies and paradigms) and implementing conditionality instruments; Mechanisms for instruments coordination at the field level: Mechanisms for instruments coordination at the field level: Technical assistance provision is a means of integrating policy instruments at the field level Programs combining technical assistance with other climate or productive objectives showed higher potential to achieve their outcomes (Agroamigo Program, ProSemiarido, etc.); Local/territorial councils are key to coordinate initiatives and actors at the field level;

Results - Policy mix for climate adaptation in the semiarid region Actors interplay and coordination challenges Ideas and cross Ideas and cross- -sectoral coordination sectoral coordination - 5 subgroups (coalitions representatives regarding 40 approaches, etc.); coalitions) were identified based on the similarity of ideas and policy preferences of institutional 40 criteria criteria(e.g., conservation vs use of natural resources, agricultural development The living with the semiarid paradigm was built as a territorially contextualized strategy for rural development and coping with drought (associated with objectives of climate adaptation) Regional dev. & water infras. (C2) Origin in the fighting drought paradigm Living with semiarid (C1) Strategies: decentralized water infrastructure, participatory approaches,agroecology Irrigation & agribusiness (C3) Very Verylow Density DensityC1 lowinteraction interaction C1- -C5: 0.005 C5: 0.005 Origin in the fighting drought paradigm Responsible for elaborating and implementing climate plans Environmental protection (C5) Hydroenergy water regulation (C4) Currently shares intersts for preserving natural vegetation with C1 (desertification control, restoration) Origin in the fighting drought paradigm Sectors: Sectors: Agriculture Water Environment

Conclusions Need to acknowledge conditional instruments: Insufficient regard for climate-related risks (sectoral policies recycled to display climate goals); Coordination is a political issue related to ideas, conflicts, interests, institutional interplay, budget priorities; Challenges of mainstreaming-oriented approaches to promote climate policy integration; Potential of mechanisms for instruments coordination at the field level (territorial councils, technical assistance providers, local policymakers); Gap between national-level policy design and territorial needs for adaptation (and low concern of climate change at the local level); Current process of dismantling rural development and climate policies in Brazil.