Consequences of Brexit on UK and EU Economies
Explore the economic impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom and the European Union, covering trade relationships, population, geographical extension, GDP, imports, exports, and main challenges faced. Understand the consequences for the UK, including reduced negotiation power, volatile inflation, London's financial role, and EU citizen interest post-Brexit.
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ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM AND FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION Javier Wrana Universidade de Macau 26.09.2019
European Union Members https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en
In terms of population European Union Population / 2019 United Kingdom Other EU countries
In terms of geographical extension European Union Area United Kingdom Other EU countries
In terms of GDP European Union GDP / 2017 United Kingdom Other EU countries
UK Imports / 2018 from outside EU From EU
UK Exports / 2018 to outside EU To EU
While, for Germany (main EU exporter), UK only buys around 6% of all its exports
Dependence of UK (in trade terms) from the EU is much higher tan dependence of EU from UK
Main issues the UK faces because of Brexit (Trade): 1. Redefinition of trade relationship with the EU 2. Redefinition of trade relationships with countries previously included in EU agreements 3. Development of new custom facilities to cater EU imports / exports 4. In the very short term, to implement an emergency plan to cover basic supplies of fresh food and medicines
Other economic consequences for the UK, due to Brexit (I): 1. Smaller negotiation power in evey field 2. Volatile inflation, mainly affecting basic goods, depending upon the volatility of GBP exchange rate 3. Partial loss of the role in world finances currently plays London 4. Partial loss of interest for UK from EU citizens (including many very skilled ones)
Other economic consequences for the UK, due to Brexit (II): 1. Freedom for chosing new partnmers 2. Full control of borders for citizens coming from any country 3. Increasing volatility of in/out tourism and location of retired UK citizens 4. Economic issues derived from the special situation of Northern Ireland
Economic consequences for the EU, due to Brexit: 1. Strong influence in the short term, specially for countries with deeper relationship with UK (trade, tourism, and the like) 2. Less impediments to deepen integration among the 27 countries 3. Depending of UK performance once out of the EU, an increase or a decrease in the will of Europeans towards deepen European integration
For both, the UK and the EU, we can only try to present scenarios for the short term
THANK YOU VERY MUCH Javier Wrana javier.wrana@urjc.es
