COVID-19 Backlog Funding Threshold Alternative Overview

FY 20/21 COVID 19 Backlog Funding Overview of Threshold Alternative Presented to Judicial Branch Budget Committee November 12, 2020 Kimberly Flener Court Executive Officer Superior Court of California, County of Butte Jake Chatters, Court Executive Officer Superior Court of California, County of Placer Presented on behalf of group of courts that provided comment to TCBAC on original proposal.

Threshold Alternative Sought to clarify policy elements of original TCBAC Subcommittee recommendation. Goal was to use the foundation set by the Subcommittee but raise a small number of policy concepts for discussion. JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model 1 Nov. 12, 2020

Threshold Alternative 1. Policy Foundation 2. Example of Threshold Model JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model 2 Nov. 12, 2020

Policy Foundation: Authentic Experiences one-time General Fund to help the trial courts address the backlog in cases stemming from COVID- 19 and resume normal operations. http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/2020-21/pdf/Enacted/GovernorsBudget/0010/0250.pdf

Policy Foundation What metric? Backlog of Cases What measurement period? Stemming from COVID 19 Do we consider normal as compared to each other or the specific court? Resume Normal Operations JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 4

Policy Foundation Backlog of Cases TCBAC Recommendation: Change in Dispositions as a Proxy JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 5

Policy Foundation Backlog of Cases TCBAC Recommendation: Change in Dispositions as a Proxy Threshold Model: Accepts this as the measure. (Although there are concerns about misinterpretation.) JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 6

Policy Foundation What Measurement Period TCBAC Recommendation: March to August 2020 compared to March to August 2019 JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 7

Policy Foundation What Measurement Period TCBAC Recommendation: March to August 2020 compared to March to August 2019 Threshold Model: Accepts this as the measure (Although suggests renaming to: First Pandemic Period) JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 8

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 9

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 10

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 11

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations Threshold Model TCBAC Recommended Model Some courts were able to more quickly restore services. Some courts had lower initial impact due to virus conditions in their county. Courts with low to no impact on defined backlog DO NOT receive additional funds from the second $25 million. JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model 12 Nov. 12, 2020

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations TCBAC Recommended Model Threshold Model Provide funding to the courts with the GREATEST raw impact on normal. Provide funding based on confirmed impact to normal . Every one backlogged case (weighted) counts the same towards move from normal. Measure impact based on each court s move away from normal. JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model 13 Nov. 12, 2020

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations TCBAC Recommended Model Threshold Model Focuses funding to courts with greatest total impact. Focuses on return to normal for as many courts as possible. Seeks to balance return to normal. Has potential of greater funding to larger courts. JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model 14 Nov. 12, 2020

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations TCBAC Recommended Model JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 15

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations TCBAC Recommended Model JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 16

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations Threshold Model JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 17

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations Threshold Model JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 18

Policy Foundation Resume Normal Operations Return those with greatest raw impact closer to normal. Return as many courts as possible closer to their normal. Key Policy Difference // Decision JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 19

Example Threshold Model All thresholds are provided for illustration. Ultimately, the threshold levels are a policy decision. JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 20

Example Threshold Model Pre-Pandemic Period Court A Court B Court C Court D Court E Total 174,130 22,330 132,659 35,288 121,400 Average 24,876 3,190 18,951 5,041 17,343 Initial Pandemic Period Court A Court B Court C Court D Court E Total 131,564 15,304 52,591 30,570 122,810 Average 18,795 2,186 7,513 4,367 17,544 JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 21

Example Threshold Model Percent Change in Disposition Court A Court B Court C Court D Court E -24% Average Percent Change (Averaging Monthly Changes) -31% -60% -13% 1% Court A Court B Court C Court D Court E -20% -28% -60% -13% 1% *For those checking the math the averages are based on seven months. This illustration was not updated following TCBAC s decision to change the measurement period. JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 22

Example Threshold Model Thresholds - Defined by Percent Change in Dispositions Moderate Impact Significant Impact Minimal Impact Severe Impact Less than 2.5% 2.5% to 14.9% 15%-24.9% More than 25% JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 23

Example Threshold Model Defining the thresholds is: A policy decision. JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 24

Example Threshold Model Defining the Thresholds Moderate Impact Threshold Significant Impact Threshold Severe Impact Recognizes courts received first $25 million. Recognizes that courts had dual impact of COVID and COVID- related budget reductions. Recognizes a second tier impact. Adjust upwards. Significant Impact Doubled and Adjusted Downward 2.5% = First $25 Million as Proportion of Base Funding Allocation -- Doubled Moderate Threshold x 2 + Budget Impact 25% = 15% +15% - 5% 15% = 2.5% + 2.5% + 10% JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model 25 Nov. 12, 2020

Example Threshold Model Threshold Considerations Moderate Impact Threshold Significant Impact Threshold Severe Impact Could remove doubling factor of first $25 million to potentially include more courts in Moderate impact. Could consider budget reeducation and not include in the Significant calculation. Could move higher to focus on only the most impacted. Could wait to set based on actual data. In so doing, could move to only three tiers: Minimal; Significant; Severe. JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model 26 Nov. 12, 2020

Example Threshold Model Thresholds - Defined by Percent Change in Dispositions Moderate Impact Significant Impact Minimal Impact Severe Impact Less than 2.5% 2.5% to 14.9% 15%-24.9% More than 25% JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 27

Example Threshold Funding the Thresholds Threshold - Share of Second $25m Moderate Impact Reduced Proportion from 1st $25m Significant Impact Minimal Impact Severe Impact Equal to First $25m plus Additional* Equal to First $25m None JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 28

Example Threshold Model Average Percent Change (Averaging Monthly Changes) Court A Court B Court C Court D Court E -20% -28% -60% -13% 1% Thresholds - Defined by Percent Change in Dispositions Moderate Impact Significant Impact Minimal Impact Severe Impact Less than 2.5% 2.5% to 14.9% 15%-24.9% More than 25% JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 29

Example Threshold Model Average Percent Change (Averaging Monthly Changes) Court A Court B Court C Court D Court E -20% -28% -60% -13% 1% Court A Court B Court C Court D Moderate Impact Court E Minimal Impact Significant Impact Severe Impact Severe Impact JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 30

Example Threshold Model Court A Court B Court C Court D Moderate Impact Court E Minimal Impact Significant Impact Severe Impact Severe Impact Court A Court B Equal to First $25m plus Additional* Court C Equal to First $25m plus Additional* Court D Reduced Proportion from 1st $25m Court E Equal to First $25m None *Additional share is based on remaining funds from moderate and minimal impacted courts. JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 31

Example Threshold Model Threshold Model - Share of Second $25M Total Allocated 18,564,926 $ 6,435,074 $ 25,000,000 $ Court A 8,960,863 $ $ 8,960,863 $ Court B 1,149,119 $ 519,127 $ 1,668,246 $ Court C 6,826,734 $ 5,915,947 $ 12,742,681 $ Court D 1,628,210 $ $ 1,628,210 $ Court E $ $ $ Initial Share (2nd $25M) Additional Share (2nd $25M) - - - - - Total (2nd $25M) Share of First $25M (Already Allocated) Court A 8,960,863 $ Court B 1,149,119 $ Court C 6,826,734 $ Court D 1,815,947 $ Court E 6,247,337 $ JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 32

Comparing The Models (Illustration Only) Second $25m Allocation ILLUSTRATION ONLY - DATA SET IS THEORETICAL Court A 8,088,828 $ Court B 1,335,153 $ Court C 15,215,342 $ Court D 896,563 $ Court E $ TCBAC Rec'd Model - Threshold Model $ 8,960,863 1,668,246 $ 12,742,681 $ 1,628,210 $ $ - Share of Raw Change in Dispo 32.4% 5.3% 60.9% 3.6% N/A Average Percent Change in Dispositions -20% -28% -60% -13% 1% JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model Nov. 12, 2020 33

Questions? JBBC: COVID Backlog Funding Option: Threshold Model 34 Nov. 12, 2020