Croydon Local Elections Poll Study: Voting Intention and Elected Mayor Support
"Discover insights from a poll study conducted in Croydon for the local elections, including voting intention analysis and public support for directly elected mayors. Explore the data and trends to understand the electoral landscape in Croydon Borough."
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Presentation Transcript
London Local Elections: Croydon Poll Case Study
Methodology 719 adults over the age of 18 in the borough of Croydon polled by telephone between 1pm-9:30pm on May 5th. Differential response rates from different demographic groups were taken into account. Data were weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+ living in Croydon by age, sex, ward (grouped) and recalled 2017 General Election vote. Targets for the weighted data were derived from ONS mid-2016 estimates and the results of the 2017 General Election. Because only a sample of the full population of Croydon Borough was interviewed, all results are subject to margin of error, meaning that not all differences are statistically significant. For example, in a question where 50% (the worst case scenario as far as margin of error is concerned) gave a particular answer, with a sample of 719 it is 95% certain that the true value will fall within the range of 3.65% from the sample result. Subsamples from the cross-breaks will be subject to higher margin of error, so conclusions drawn from cross breaks with very small sub-samples should be treated with caution. In order to assess voting intention, Question 1 asked respondents how likely they were to vote in the local election on a scale of 0-10. This likelihood to vote was then used to weight voters' responses, such that respondents replying 10 were weighted by a factor of 1.0, whilst those responding 9 were weighted by a factor of 0.9, and so on down to responses of 0 being excluded altogether. Those responding 'Already voted by post/in person" were weighted by a factor of 1. Respondents were then asked who they would vote in today's borough election, with the responses Labour , Conservative , Liberal Democrat ,"UKIP" and "Green" prompted in a randomising order, followed by the options "Other", "Undecided" and "Refused".
Q2. Voting Intention Can I ask for which party will you vote/you voted in your Croydon borough council elections? Base: Weighted by likelihood to vote with undecided and refused removed.
Q2. Voting Intention: Comparison Can I ask for which party will you vote/you voted in your Croydon borough council elections? Average error: 2.28%
Q4. Elected Mayor Some boroughs, such as Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney, have directly elected mayors. Other boroughs do not have directly elected mayors. To what extent would you support or oppose Croydon having its own directly elected mayor? Majorities across all demographics supported the idea.
Q4. Elected Mayor: Age Some boroughs, such as Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney, have directly elected mayors. Other boroughs do not have directly elected mayors. To what extent would you support or oppose Croydon having its own directly elected mayor? 18-34 year olds are the most likely to support the idea but still majority support across other age categories.
Q4. Elected Mayor: Voting Intention Some boroughs, such as Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney, have directly elected mayors. Other boroughs do not have directly elected mayors. To what extent would you support or oppose Croydon having its own directly elected mayor? Labour voters most likely to support the idea but still over 50% of Conservative voters support the idea.
Q4. Elected Mayor: Sadiq Khan Popularity Some boroughs, such as Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney, have directly elected mayors. Other boroughs do not have directly elected mayors. To what extent would you support or oppose Croydon having its own directly elected mayor? Respondents thinking Sadiq Khan is doing a bad job would still support the idea of Croydon having a directly elected mayor.
Q.5 Sadiq Khan Popularity Do you think Sadiq Khan is doing a good job or a bad job as Mayor of London? Net approval rating: +29%
Q5. Sadiq Khan Popularity: Age Do you think Sadiq Khan is doing a good job or a bad job as Mayor of London? The majority of respondents in the 55+ category reported Sadiq Khan doing a good job as Mayor of London.
Q5. Sadiq Khan Popularity: Voting Intention Do you think Sadiq Khan is doing a good job or a bad job as Mayor of London? Even among Conservative voters, more respondents reported positively about Sadiq Khan s performance than negatively.
Further Information Full tables available here This information was prepared by Chris Lees, Emily Nell and Daral Williams For further information on this particular project type, please contact Chris Hopkins - 0203 818 9661 or chris.hopkins@survation.com
