Cuban-American Transition: Demographic and Ideological Change

The demographic and ideological shifts in the Cuban-American community over two decades based on the FIU Cuba Poll data from 1997 to 2016. The findings cover topics such as opinions on unrestricted travel, the embargo, sale of food, political affiliations, and more.

• Cuban-American
• Demographic change
• Ideological shift
• FIU Cuba Poll
• Opinion trends

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1. The Cuban-American Transition: Demographic and Ideological Change in the Cuban-American Community Twenty Years of the FIU Cuba Poll

2. Cuba Poll 1997-2016 (N and Margin of Error) 1201 (+-2.8) 1200 (+12.8) 1000 (+-3.1) 1000 (+-3.1) 973 (+-3.1) 909 800 (+-3.4) (+-3.25) 648 (+-3.7) 1997 2000 2004 2007 2008 2011 2014 2016

3. Unrestricted Travel for All Americans 46.50% 58.00% 50.60% 39.40% 77.10% 50.20% 45.30% 40.40% 36.60% 22.90% Mar-91 Oct-91 Jun-93 Mar-95 Jun-97 Poll Year Favor Oppose

4. Continue Embargo 87% 84.8% 86.6% 83.4% 77.8% 22.4% 13.4% 14.3% 16% 15.2 Mar-91 Oct-91 Jun-93 Mar-95 Jun-97 Poll Year Favor Oppose

5. Sale of Food 59.2% 64.40% 65.00% 28.30% 40.8% 23.80% Jun-93 Mar-95 Jun-97 Poll Year Favor Oppose

6. Favor Selling Food and Medicine (by Poll Year) 85.1% 80.8% 56.0% 56.0% 40.8% 1997 2000 2004 Sell Food 2007 2011 2014 2016 Sell medicine

7. The Issue of Travel to Cuba 73.5% 44.9% 23.1% 1997 2000 Support Unrestrictic Travel 2004 2007 2008 2011 Have Traveled 2014 2016

8. Embargo and Diplomatic Relations (by Poll Year) 72.5% 69.0% 64.6% 63.2% 57.4% 54.6% 44.3% 22.4% 1997 2000 2004 2007 2008 favor diplo relations 2011 2014 2016 oppose embargo

9. On Political Lag

10. Party Registration (By Poll Year) 69.1% 53.4% 24.6% 16.5% 21.9% 1997 2000 2004 2007 Rep 2008 2011 2014 2016 Dem Ind

11. Citizens (Eligible by Years of Arrival: 2016 Cuba Poll) 97.8% 88.2% 70.5% 29.5% 11.8% 2.2% Pre-1980 1980-1994 Yes 1995-2009 No

12. Citizens Registered to Vote (By Period of Arrival: 2016 Cuba Poll) 98.9% 95.5% 84.1% 29.5+15.9= 45.4% 15.9% 4.5% 1.1% Pre-1980 1980-1994 Yes 1995-2016 No

13. Political Party Registration (By Time of Departure: 2016 Cuba Poll) 73.0% 43.8% 31.3% 14.2% 25.0% 1959-1979 1980-1994 1995-2004 Ind 2005-2016 Rep Dem

14. The 2016 Vote: Does Trump owe Cubans the Florida Win?

15. Cuban-American voters accounted for approximately six percent (564,938) of the 9,415,638 Florida voters who cast a ballot for President. (Source: CNN, Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved: 11/13/16 at 3:47 PM. http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/FederalOffices/Presidential/) 564,938 9,415,638 Total Voters Cuban voters

16. Trump won the state by approximately 113,000 votes. Clinton won little under 50% of the Cuban-American vote (Pew Research Center). Let s call it 44% to be conservative. (248,572) Even if Clinton had improved her performance by 10 percentage points among Cuban-Americans, (and received 54% of their vote) this would have gained her only an additional 62,143 votes. Well short of her deficit. Gary Johnson received 207,043. Might as well give him the credit. As FiveThirtyEight pointed out, Cuban-Americans would have needed to vote for Hillary Clinton by an impossibly wide margin to swing the election her way, and Trump would have won the state if they hadn t voted at all.

17. Hillary Clinton improved on Obamas numbers in Cuban precincts Cubanos (Trump won these areas 50% a 48%) 1,413 7,856 Romney ('12) 948 33,267 4,463 Obama ('12) 27,675 1,344 7,219 33,718 Trump 1,198 5,480 33,625 Clinton West Miami Westchester Hialeah 17

18. A Referendum on Obama Policies?

19. Support for new policies initiated by U.S. government (2016 Cuba Polls) Strongly Favor 44.0% 38.2% 25.9% Strongly Oppose Mostly Favor 20.3% 17.6% Mostly Oppose 9.8% 8.6% 44.0% Strongly Favor Strongly Oppose 25.9% 22.5% 6.5% Don t Know 9.8% Mostly Oppose No Response 5.2% 20.3% Mostly Favor

20. If election were held today Clinton or Trump? (Asked only of registered voters-July 11-August 14, 2016) 11.0% Undecided Clinton 31.4 32.9% Clinton Trump 35.5 18.8% Neither Neither 17.8 Undecided 10.4 NA 5.2 37.4% Trump

21. Supporters of New Policies (by candidate preference) 65.2% 54.3% 38.0% 26.4% 21.7% 11.6% 17.0% 11.4% 15.2% 8.3% Clinton strongly favor Trump mostly favor Neither mostly oppose Undecided, strongly oppose

22. Clinton/Trump voters on embargo 78.5% 65.5% 63.3% 59.0% 41.0% 36.7% 34.5% 21.5% Clinton Trump continue embargo Neither end embargo Undecided

23. 2016 FIU Cuba Poll View online at cri.fiu.edu Thank you!