Debt Affordability Study Overview and Ratios Analysis
The Debt Affordability Study is a crucial tool for managing borrowing impact and decision-making. This update discusses the study's importance, this year's positive outcomes, debt affordability ratios, and credit ratings fundamentals.
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Debt of Graduates and Cohort Default Rates at Stony Brook University Panel on Student Borrowing in a Multi-Campus System Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Asst. Vice President for Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness Stony Brook University AIR Annual Forum May 29, 2015 Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
OVERVIEW Preliminary findings as part of system and institution efforts to address college affordability and educational debt burden Debt of Graduates Defaulters Importance of local context Models diverge for Pell/Non- Pell Recipients Low R-sq. Don t adequately predict high debt More high debt among 4-year grads 30% of defaulters borrowed under $10k Much higher risk for Non-graduates Independent students Pell recipients Low Adj. Gross Income Transfer Students Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
INSTITUTIONAL PROFILE Students: 24,607 fall headcount 67% Undergraduate Institution: Carnegie Very High Research U Public AAU Undergraduate Profile 1243 avg. SAT 69% six-year graduation rate Undergraduate Profile Completions: 6,475 31% STEM, 24% Health Employees: 14,500, including hospital Faculty: 2,602 Total 1,085 Tenured/Tenure Track Annual Research Expenditures: 220 million USD Annual Budget: 2.3 billion USD Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
DEBT OF BACHELORS RECIPIENTS Did Not Receive Pell No Debt 42% Any Debt 58% Received Pell No Debt 20% Any Debt 80% Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
EXPLORATORY DEBT MODELS Dependent variable = total amount borrowed Pell Recipients, R-squared = 0.102 First Estimated Family Contribution Institutional Grants GPA at Completion Did Not Receive Pell, R-squared = 0.055 Underrepresented Minority State Scholarships Amount (Career) GPA at Completion Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
DEBT OF BACHELORS RECIPIENTS By Months to Degree Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
DEBT OF BACHELORS RECIPIENTS By Total Grant/Scholarship Aid Underrepresented Minorities All Others Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
DEBT OF BACHELORS RECIPIENTS By Degree GPA Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
DEFAULTERS & COHORT DEFAULT RATE 2009 2010 2011 2012* Total Actual Defaulters 206 199 204 137 746 CDR 5.8% 5.3% 5.1% 3.1% 4.7% Study Defaulters 196 189 199 130 714 CDR 5.5% 5.1% 5.0% 3.1% 4.6% Study UG Defaulters 167 163 170 109 609 CDR 6.5% 6.3% 6.2% 3.9% 5.7% All rates are 3-year CDR * 2012 rate is preliminary Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
COHORT DEFAULT ANALYSIS Obtain list of defaulters from Financial Aid Office Establish comparison groups Enrolled in year prior to CDR cohort year Had any loan debt Not enrolled in subsequent year (assume in repayment) Most analysis limited to undergraduates Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
TOTAL DEBT OF UNDERGRAD DEFAULTERS Received Pell Did Not Receive Pell 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 50-59k 10-19k 20-29k 30-39k 40-49k 60-69k 70-79k 0-10k 80k+ 0-10k 80k+ 10-19k 20-29k 30-39k 40-49k 50-59k 60-69k 70-79k Graduated Did Not Graduate Graduated Did Not Graduate Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
DEFAULT RATES OF UNDERGRADUATES 20% 18.2% 16% 12% 10.3% 8.9% 6.8% 6.6% 8% 2.8% 2.5% 4% 2.0% 0% Dep. N=2282 Indep. N=817 Dep. N=1309 Indep. N=313 Dep. N=2550 Indep. N=1690 Dep. N=1101 Indep. N=681 Graduated Did Not Graduate Graduated Did Not Graduate Did Not Receive Pell Received Pell Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
AVERAGE ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME DEPENDENT STUDENTS $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 No Pell Pell No Pell Pell Graduated Did Not Graduate Did Not Default Defaulted Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness Chart depicts first parents AGI
AVERAGE ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME INDEPENDENT STUDENTS $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 No Pell Pell No Pell Pell Graduated Did Not Graduate Did Not Default Defaulted Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness Chart depicts last student s AGI
TAKEAWAYS 1. National and system context are important but should never replace local analysis 2. Developing partnerships with Financial Aid Office essential to obtaining and understanding data 3. Stony Brook s easily accessible data does not explain high borrowing behavior 4. Patterns more evident in Stony Brook s default rates and can inform action plans Office of Institutional Research, Planning & Effectiveness
