Development Resilience Approach for Well-being Dynamics and Food Security Insights
Explore the Development Resilience Approach based on Barrett & Constas' work, focusing on estimating stochastic well-being dynamics and resilience in different contexts like northern Kenya and Tigray. The approach involves measuring well-being outcomes, evaluating resilience through conditional moments, and examining food security indicators to understand thresholds and asset coefficients.
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Presentation Transcript
The Development Resilience Approach Chris Barrett, Jenn Ciss , Joanna Upton Cornell University April 18, 2017 Feinstein International Center, Tufts University Resilience Measurement Think Shop
Development Resilience Approach Based on Barrett & Constas (PNAS 2014) Probabilistic approach to estimating stochastic well-being dynamics Like poverty estimation, an explicitly normative approach based on assumed (i) Level Minimum acceptable standard of adequate well-being (outcome) for an individual or household. (ii) Probability Minimum acceptable likelihood of meeting level
Estimating Resilience - In order to evaluate, must first be able to measure (if observable) or estimate (if unobservable). - Estimate conditional moments of the well-being outcome variable, as a function of variables reflecting (i) exogenous shocks (e.g., drought, illness, cyclone) (ii) conditioners of exposure, recovery (e.g., gender) (iii) interventions (iv) polynomial lags of DV (i.e., nonlinear dynamics) - Describe and predict time path of resilience for individuals of aggregates of individuals
Examples from northern Kenya pastoralists By gender of HH head By HH mobility
Extension: Food security & resilience in Tigray (Maxwell, Vaitla, Ciss , and Upton) Building on Livelihood Change over Time study (Feinstein & Makelle University) Four rounds of data over two years (~300 hhs), Tsaeda Amba & Seharti Samre woredas Explore relationship between food security indicators (FCS & RCSI), and examine thresholds Confirm that indicators capture different dimensions (combining regions is deceptive) Changing thresholds has some effect on interpretation
Extension: Food security & resilience in Tigray (Maxwell, Vaitla, Ciss , and Upton) FCS Resilience: Asset Coefficients by Zone & Threshold 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 -0.01 -0.02 TLU EP Land EP Water EP TLU MT Land MT Water MT
