Disease Progression Model by Jacob Barhak - Methods and Fitness Matrix
Explore Jacob Barhak's Disease Progression Model methods and fitness matrix, including risk equations, populations, and fitness scores for various disease management strategies. The model evaluates the progression of diseases such as coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke to improve treatment outcomes and patient care.
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The Reference Model for Disease Progression Jacob Barhak Austin, Texas http://sites.google.com/site/jacobbarhak/ Mount Hood Challenge 2014 Stanford, CA 18 June 2014
The Reference Model Methods Used 1 2 Process CHD Pop 3 4 3 CHD Death No CHD MI Survive MI Pop 2 Pop 1 1 2 Process Stroke Death 4 3 Survive Stroke Stroke Death No Stroke Stroke Eq 1 1 1 1 1 Eq 2 1 4 2 6 3 2 4 1 Pop 1 Process Competing Mortality 2 4 6 1 Pop 2 Other Death Alive 2 3 9 2 Pop 3 Loop through Risk Equation/Hypothesis combinations Loop through populations Calculate fitness of simulation outcomes to observed phenomena All sources of information are public Fitness Matrix Jacob Barhak
The Reference Model Fitness Matrix Selected Models No Correlation - Independent Fully Correlated Without 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 1 4 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 0.45 0.45 0.45 With BioMarker Correction 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 10 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 Without With BioMarker Correction MODELS Method_A1c Method_BMI Method_BP Method_Lipids Method_Smoke Method_MI Method_Stroke Method_DeathCHD Method_DeathStroke Method_TimeImprove FITNESS: LOW SCORE = GOOD FITNESS UKPDS33 Conventional UKPDS33 Intensive UKPDS33 Full ASPEN All Placebo ASPEN All Atorvastatin ASPEN Primary Placebo ASPEN Primary Atorvastatin ASPEN Secondary Placebo ASPEN Secondary Atorvastatin ASPEN Full ADVANCE Standard ADVANCE Intensive ADVANCE Asia Standard ADVANCE Asia Intensive ADVANCE EME Standard ADVANCE EME Intensive ADVANCE Eastern Europe Standard ADVANCE Eastern Europe Intensive ADVANCE Full ACCORD BP Standard Therapy ACCORD BP Intensive Therapy ACCORD BP Full KP 20-34 KP 35-50 KP 50-65 KP 65-75 KP 75+ KP Total NDR 20-34 NDR 35-50 NDR 50-65 NDR 65-75 NDR 75+ NDR Total AHEAD Control AHEAD Intervention AHEAD Full ADDITION Routine ADDITION Intensive ADDITION Full 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 2 1 8 Populations = 40 cohorts x 2 10 1 2 1 10 1 1 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 -1 0.45 -1 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 -1 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 -1 0.45 -1 8.709 11.552 13.985 17.059 13.307 15.576 10.37 13.946 9.911 11.324 10.111 9.3667 12.828 13.89 42.624 45.077 21.216 25.375 14.056 18.441 15.338 19.604 11.921 16.031 24.377 30.772 19.577 24.111 12.57 17.039 11.123 12.254 25.373 29.481 20.736 29.926 14.379 18.419 30.663 28.982 30.062 28.762 28.95 26.773 5.4312 4.833 8.5425 7.6613 15.697 16.876 33.585 38.254 97.844 99.022 29.371 28.169 8.5276 7.8746 2.7832 4.4691 12.896 12.945 11.328 12.049 36.296 35.772 9.6036 9.6575 18.285 15.446 21.216 17.434 19.793 16.342 18.545 19.255 20.55 18.915 18.761 19.908 19.512 22.592 24.066 22.307 21.834 22.782 11.301 13.218 11.206 12.288 9.8931 10.588 10.838 11.125 46.115 46.628 26.064 29.485 14.209 17.048 12.667 16.856 9.347 14.871 13.913 17.72 11.442 14.082 18.596 18.237 17.846 18.228 22.018 29.847 21.442 24.79 11.36 17.128 30.435 31.619 29.627 27.54 30.17 28.93 6.52 7.1356 11.909 12.05 23.155 26.586 48.432 50.909 114.6 119.54 38.435 39.99 7.7798 7.9812 5.3442 6.4331 11.708 12.803 6.0398 7.997 37.03 38.119 7.8028 9.3708 24.919 21.125 23.625 22.953 24.11 23.655 20.791 21.149 23.262 22.315 21.949 21.166 36.034 33.458 33.737 13.83 14.955 11.583 15.467 49.429 28.928 18.593 17.296 14.169 25.18 19.643 24.151 22.03 29.529 27.447 16.802 30.098 29.163 28.263 6.5656 13.462 26.476 47.506 98.313 37.941 9.4882 12.429 16.423 11.882 36.552 10.179 19.895 21.068 22.295 26.031 27.731 26.766 58.595 53.53 54.903 24.831 20.047 19.07 20.288 51.228 35.599 23.28 23.027 24.718 12.97 9.8749 41.666 40.598 34.936 34.625 33.206 38.003 38.778 36.773 7.9726 13.001 33.944 59.545 106.02 49.156 8.5071 8.3422 29.94 35.089 47.736 28.022 35.799 37.237 35.648 34.475 36.649 36.038 45.394 41.977 41.172 15.785 14.042 12.869 15.624 46.136 26.96 16.836 12.08 12.441 18.479 11.688 23.635 26.535 22.758 22.361 17.747 30.999 33.534 30.985 8.4202 14.2 29.342 45.892 99.556 39.542 9.5971 12.569 16.958 13.262 36.821 13.819 25.384 24.765 27.188 27.229 28.662 27.246 29.86 38.708 32.252 17.367 22.545 23.358 27.134 15.671 10.23 9.2007 17.181 19.931 23.502 19.675 26.287 33.729 25.023 24.476 29.805 17.425 13.551 15.792 9.325 19.035 29.849 52.332 115.72 47.513 15.572 20.497 30.562 37.999 37.595 35.985 23.836 30.5 28.207 33.169 33.898 34.892 14.933 11.801 11.115 10.156 10.397 10.585 11.304 32.024 20.715 11.136 17.713 13.648 24.782 22.381 11.12 12.314 24.294 23.876 13.296 25.84 25.647 22.478 6.4572 6.8454 15.806 38.739 98.025 32.201 6.8884 3.2956 12.001 16.827 6.6617 14.888 21.635 22.543 19.463 9.1463 9.3433 10.318 23.171 19.673 23.303 10.711 11.864 18.221 17.584 31.212 16.063 7.112 16.711 16.853 15.013 13.017 30.439 36.854 19.752 21.622 26.714 23.117 18.835 20.997 11.853 27.468 36.571 68.674 143.77 59.356 20.806 22.757 34.84 37.12 60.452 35.688 39.946 39.23 40.795 27.055 32.03 31.741 35.828 38.449 39.549 22.187 24.09 27.669 27.328 19.137 15.516 16.74 29.798 30.214 28.453 23.885 33.949 32.382 36.838 35.067 38.984 14.129 11.31 11.652 6.6165 17.878 36.718 68.959 133.07 56.781 12.818 15.772 38.46 48.944 50.132 44.368 28.399 32.135 30.74 27.509 31.982 30.137 17.239 29.589 29.451 20.533 23.572 22.854 24.274 22.564 37.002 21.594 26.152 29.576 31.915 30.071 31.294 25.43 27.727 24.366 37.961 27.944 15.669 18.678 10.667 17.977 38.23 73.159 146.09 56.199 11.816 14.743 33.621 54.187 72.517 40.959 37.689 42.569 34.268 17.604 22.61 20.008 11.181 13.722 12.013 10.518 10.477 9.9821 10.837 46.377 27.26 15.509 18.367 16.49 28.826 21.898 20.275 15.566 31.594 28.401 18.573 31.689 34.415 35.52 5.5756 8.8037 17.002 34.497 92.417 28.525 8.1056 4.7101 12.725 12.096 34.006 8.095 21.881 21.729 23.498 11.505 12.58 12.776 13.446 14.266 13.977 13.541 14.129 9.9598 13.232 47.314 29.286 17.846 21.11 21.467 33.089 26.482 17.126 17.215 38.952 33.071 22.406 31.776 34.508 34.63 4.4379 8.186 18.689 38.37 95.927 30.38 7.0292 2.5618 11.939 12.669 34.422 9.9382 21.15 20.738 18.769 14.294 13.483 11.328 69.142 63.46 64.716 24.3 24.257 22.942 19.901 52.569 41.201 24.776 28.38 26.014 14.254 10.341 41.225 35.985 33.979 36.055 33.813 42.391 41.324 41.8 7.8323 13.507 40.578 66.491 117.85 49.283 8.9378 12.232 31.442 38.706 57.587 34.862 34.378 35.511 35.393 27.921 29.76 28.982 30.162 29.793 29.506 12.406 11.826 9.5978 11.345 44.796 29.342 15.623 13.075 12.516 24.223 17.395 18.892 18.145 25.154 23.33 12.432 33.528 35.137 33.438 6.9005 12.065 24.614 42.092 95.392 34.324 9.787 10.184 12.687 6.4294 34.009 6.7202 21.714 20.183 21.883 16.315 17.921 15.525 31.542 30.876 27.828 14.915 13.216 12.11 13.899 49.391 30.512 18.269 17.642 14.481 26.355 21.972 21.078 17.162 28.785 26.937 17.366 31.877 34.827 32.808 6.8978 10.782 25.965 43.323 100.04 35.844 9.5425 9.8872 13.335 5.4786 35.142 6.0898 19.982 18.428 18.697 16.03 16.603 15.99 24.874 22.521 21.553 14.635 13.253 9.8709 13.273 51.997 36.474 16.709 18.635 14.863 23.159 15.758 21.542 16.838 32.59 27.714 16.253 32.293 34.88 34.77 8.0909 12.479 26.223 44.462 102.45 36.613 9.1501 8.0094 13.213 6.1062 33.821 6.2001 22.018 21.224 20.79 13.204 14.538 15.969 22.369 20.53 19.729 11.635 13.098 8.2846 12.69 47.918 31.162 14.76 13.506 11.182 18.243 13.883 17.597 16.783 27.622 24.748 11.059 32.687 34.828 32.996 7.7727 10.436 23.783 50.598 116.04 37.998 9.4244 8.233 9.5743 8.7895 40.667 8.2592 25.264 25.265 23.556 13.471 15.476 13.253 48.073 43.537 46.961 18.693 15.923 18.404 16.508 50.571 35.066 22.45 19.958 18.805 17.811 10.873 30.256 29.947 29.313 28.722 23.439 35.664 38.179 37.926 6.6562 12.653 30.409 56.249 108.83 43.458 9.5189 9.2797 23.972 27.978 38.396 23.509 30.656 26.606 29.478 22.704 22.549 23.679 39.68 38.526 39.293 18.12 18.436 14.79 15.589 58.83 46.034 23.413 22.793 19.963 18.155 12.344 29.628 27.647 32.857 30.131 25.688 42.476 42.504 43.133 7.1134 12.109 33.221 65.835 115.74 46.739 9.6853 5.5479 20.885 29.015 50.788 21.912 32.144 32.185 30.166 16.727 18.43 19.412 16.107 25.38 23.766 11.523 17.178 17.397 18.592 26.042 14.095 10.139 20.107 19.152 28.489 24.608 16.633 18.008 28.222 25.651 26.888 17.394 18.465 18.181 7.9914 17.526 28.616 51.609 118.66 42.055 15.169 19.359 28.802 30.764 24.169 26.804 16.112 20.254 17.86 20.261 23.764 22.633 10.97 16.473 15.499 12.919 15.375 16.224 16.757 7.6405 17.22 9.1958 16.226 15.326 25.101 22.072 15.022 16.186 20.277 16.921 22.346 17.721 12.033 12.71 12.032 19.787 28.55 53.691 121.96 40.559 13.454 13.145 22.828 35.355 39.959 27.524 26.928 30.879 27.269 13.987 14.982 14.631 42.592 35.6 34.006 6.6134 9.866 11.025 12.664 21.259 7.0509 9.8755 11.368 10.842 19.364 16.675 23.134 20.934 16.745 12.982 19.011 27.012 22.575 23.945 13.936 24.535 39.556 68.294 126.21 57.4 14.55 14.203 21.08 26.215 32.79 21.2 41.944 41.31 41.228 16.994 23.599 18.899 42.617 57.108 50.959 25.412 29.271 35.198 34.085 14.037 20.388 23.905 34.522 36.936 29.327 24.806 38.821 45.114 38.189 41.559 43.075 16.558 11.882 13.632 8.7433 19.762 38.667 71.622 143.83 58.466 14.654 21.332 46.393 63.86 62.676 57.444 32.74 37.26 35.039 32.69 40.967 37.029 16.032 16.73 13.555 16.345 19.733 25.651 19.671 20.079 12.236 11.77 31.791 35.321 20.361 24.189 53.565 52.521 39.872 38.706 43.138 32.462 22.562 23.808 10.768 26.877 49.88 94.997 159.67 71.53 16.303 17.567 45.452 66.534 87.291 57.322 52.839 57.206 57.792 36.2 41.658 42.642 31.711 35.434 38.812 6.9486 11.814 14.069 17.931 38.089 17.654 8.0719 9.015 7.4382 18.057 12.738 11.699 10.621 21.187 18.209 5.7747 29.006 25.2 28.41 5.6147 12.613 23.256 34.493 91.333 38.821 9.1129 9.9912 13.305 3.5013 40.782 14.303 18.843 21.733 19.643 18.855 21.075 17.656 17.713 29.999 26.915 11.46 12.937 14.187 15.923 41.79 22.412 11.735 17.635 12.251 24.464 19.361 16.453 12.796 26.763 26.823 15.338 26.164 24.221 25.373 6.551 12.917 25.975 39.502 95.03 41.483 9.0139 8.1561 17.507 5.5014 41.491 13.167 19.35 18.112 16.848 16.968 19.005 17.534 38.402 40.111 41.772 9.7912 13.166 14.183 15.55 38.317 19.827 9.2729 11.726 10.265 14.7 10.89 15.489 14.222 22.21 19.578 12.515 29.24 25.27 27.94 7.1751 17.123 29.629 50.749 115.16 46.272 9.0125 11.665 16.374 6.7829 34.131 10.341 26.53 23.263 24.528 18.579 21.536 21.62 30.31 35.191 34.795 11.218 14.106 14.297 15.67 42.277 24.865 12.286 17.832 13.281 19.997 14.392 20.664 16.633 29.612 25.954 16.345 26.084 26.006 23.789 7.9439 18.42 31.427 52.894 115.47 47.956 10.519 11.394 15.126 9.9765 34.812 8.4687 22.869 22.608 21.119 17.905 22.586 20.247 44.604 52.447 53.022 15.638 19.858 16.831 18.909 41.71 26.813 17.208 18.012 16.579 23.234 18.219 22.364 19.945 30.266 26.493 21.835 29.244 29.111 28.36 7.9108 22.871 37.932 49.827 104.61 49.356 13.413 20.209 22.675 14.293 30.381 21.116 20.484 20.595 18.856 23.69 27.016 26.152 77.157 77.77 79.948 27.156 30.467 28.74 32.081 46.784 39.468 26.849 24.627 26.802 11.707 9.7794 43.749 42.285 32.007 37.027 37.445 39.392 39.155 41.298 7.7372 25.699 49.167 66.392 115.35 60.452 12.149 21.089 34.018 46.341 45.816 43.891 34.297 32.708 33.683 35.405 37.937 35.256 61.35 62.743 64.356 18.8 22.204 21.887 23.424 40.812 29.341 18.757 11.953 13.101 15.389 9.8068 21.924 22.193 24.895 27.696 20.369 31.641 31.273 33.682 8.9669 22.835 38.794 52.819 101.48 52.878 15.886 23.958 24.26 21.309 35.805 31.218 23.826 24.269 23.352 26.195 28.357 24.686 49.787 59.411 59.876 26.024 31.861 32.498 34.975 14.386 22.539 18.616 16.28 19.772 19.038 14.929 24.568 36.403 23.943 23.077 36.496 20.408 17.999 19.375 8.9391 27.419 41.097 63.908 118.52 65.354 24.752 30.217 37.082 50.134 44.995 47.461 19.097 28.199 26.139 31.114 35.117 30.482 38.279 48.736 46.447 18.942 18.185 28.758 23.007 16.516 10.154 10.954 11.764 8.1237 22.057 18.842 7.9355 10.339 15.617 11.782 19.907 22.122 19.127 18.438 9.2878 18.393 32.265 54.412 106.58 64.531 9.7245 10.311 21.969 40.8 43.046 55.971 21.38 22.232 22.743 11.22 11.539 10.613 14.453 16.019 13.046 17.015 20.173 27.008 23.298 26.743 18.735 15.374 20.267 21.674 11.855 12.547 34.922 37.22 26.923 30.337 41.796 27.855 28.243 28.741 13.304 38.436 51.154 89.785 156.94 89.782 27.476 34.723 39.675 58.342 89.092 68.897 38.251 40.653 38.561 27.299 34.223 33.849 48.377 61.467 60.085 28.079 32.761 35.777 34.912 15.754 21.184 25.017 31.807 30.028 26.115 22.77 29.71 34.575 35.894 37.798 47.23 19.779 15.337 17.311 8.4385 28.666 48.77 78.63 140.26 71.37 18.472 29.508 47.792 64.481 64.317 57.868 27.178 31.459 24.906 28.754 30.451 28.225 54.692 60.919 56.836 35.165 37.68 38.745 35.339 41.454 54.785 32.716 33.549 31.467 36.298 37.067 34.876 34.42 32.236 28.744 52.193 34.773 25.645 36.09 13.488 24.505 54.835 89.252 157.17 82.437 14.812 18.561 42.79 67.734 87.537 66.396 42.606 47.366 45.935 20.49 25.962 25.11 32.284 36.226 37.279 10.235 9.7037 14.879 13.771 39.281 21.005 8.6289 14.735 11.643 24.065 17.601 15.497 14.027 27.872 25.21 7.8963 29.438 31.108 30.512 5.4243 12.619 22.297 36.203 91.748 38.026 9.0028 8.3909 13.612 5.2232 37.452 12.233 24.262 24.144 23.322 10.328 9.3818 10.688 18.606 30.046 26.249 10.229 12.248 13.526 13.973 40.455 26.632 13.451 20.229 16.437 26.009 19.886 20.736 16.208 34.595 27.895 14.102 28.316 32.114 29.784 5.9487 13.294 24.383 40.169 98.084 39.545 9.1304 9.6285 15.737 6.9508 40.145 13.241 21.648 19.989 22.339 10.719 11.825 12.107 84.552 87.562 88.29 33.484 30.655 34.873 29.246 52.605 40.955 31.14 28.07 26.703 11.44 9.9829 37.58 37.963 37.124 36.039 41.639 45.944 46.146 47.539 8.265 26.768 51.499 72.902 121.51 74.995 12.002 23.043 41.457 53.955 64.145 51.922 35.323 32.366 33.537 29.22 30.115 31.121 46.742 51.099 49.69 12.417 13.482 18.168 14.745 42.106 22.498 13.256 12.076 11.394 24.425 15.929 19.702 14.743 24.856 22.415 10.552 30.753 30.622 34.15 7.6565 21.508 33.446 47.349 89.811 44.362 12.467 18.247 18.386 9.2642 33.423 14.636 21.802 19.886 20.672 14.537 17.774 14.002 41.819 45.985 48.342 13.95 14.445 17.538 16.145 43.023 25.724 15.647 19.35 14.675 27.188 20.665 20.749 17.512 30.889 27.963 16.344 28.296 31.664 30.102 8.0745 19.525 36.448 46.232 98.614 47.258 11.807 17.937 16.639 11.193 29.019 14.017 21.839 17.832 19.349 14.837 18.691 15.879 38.772 41.7 44.694 15.021 15.797 13.778 15.144 47.519 35.716 16.027 16.565 13.984 20.628 15.664 22.733 17.809 30.184 27.373 18.116 31.162 36.764 37.515 9.6663 24.239 38.721 50.808 101.34 49.259 10.933 13.29 18.271 14.241 32.308 16.2 22.97 22.305 21.671 16.001 15.178 16.372 32.916 43.722 43.335 12.185 10.983 14.696 14.249 38.364 25.936 10.159 12.38 11.368 15.803 9.3387 18.325 14.925 26.465 23.946 9.7147 28.851 32.006 30.753 8.0689 18.134 29.422 50.891 109.51 45.765 9.363 10.409 16.89 8.8422 34.251 7.891 24.793 23.745 25.44 13.246 16.069 15.481 67.319 66.444 68.719 24.307 20.487 23.247 21.495 45.789 33.612 24.578 18.228 17.747 14.099 10.605 30.52 28.729 31.498 28.682 28.771 39.743 40.701 40.491 7.7037 19.626 45.167 60.468 108.27 58.368 10.072 17.062 32.248 34.065 34.513 35.781 28.595 25.968 27.15 22.124 27.068 23.008 59.013 59.855 61.278 25.88 24.295 23.177 21.671 61.405 52.796 24.793 26.913 25.537 20.357 15.083 34.77 28.812 35.049 33.938 38.154 49.682 49.62 46.788 8.5735 19.814 47.773 73.443 126.66 68.795 10.269 14.716 30.736 40.428 59.666 45.426 35.21 29.084 30.521 21.372 21.807 20.104 29.361 41.727 37.717 19.62 21.099 25.749 25.185 23.068 27.968 39.683 38.953 20.524 27.625 24.623 23.669 18.553 34.928 19.506 16.558 16.887 22.555 22.204 18.558 17.853 18.739 17.22 31.729 23.689 13.969 18.516 13.161 24.079 36.24 66.151 136.43 69.268 16.423 17.912 29.7 40.933 56.377 45.878 31.144 27.952 25.894 13.587 18.908 17.204 34.257 23.106 28.035 12.109 14.264 13.702 16.121 15.114 12.77 9.8395 12.243 11.162 19.779 21.063 20.589 21.247 17.736 13.991 28.422 30.611 28.997 29.996 17.189 33.145 51.528 78.67 140.75 76.301 18.505 22.743 24.505 39.056 43.347 41.134 37.354 44.399 44.907 17.446 24.953 22.726 67.302 76.038 74.075 36.898 32.918 40.578 36.233 18.492 24.149 29.119 32.066 35.572 26.999 23.411 38.246 47.372 42.38 37.433 51.072 25.656 18.409 20.3 9.741 30.427 52.343 85.226 154.17 80.568 20.73 33.68 52.607 72.121 70.574 72.058 30.288 31.829 29.53 34.022 34.408 37.86 19.067 27.807 24.669 31.227 30.473 36.921 30.582 21.333 22.796 25.195 34.145 42.367 22.786 25.757 50.844 54.661 44.359 46.454 56.501 40.463 36.505 39.156 11.947 33.922 66.259 113 181.86 108.37 25.225 33.407 50.208 83.219 108.64 87.483 52.865 55.614 52.229 41.262 43.618 44.737 Best Model 16 14.524 18.192 17.116 24.59 20.595 15.671 18.566 27.289 24.81 29.551 16.814 14.707 14.105 8.2964 26.527 37.241 62.283 126.77 61.224 21.018 28.093 29.71 42.223 44.826 40.598 13.166 19.079 16.939 16.887 21.255 23.02 Unexplained 26 Best Representative Models selected from 544 Best Model Ranking Worst OVERALL MODEL RANKING RESULTS Method_A1c Method_BMI Method_BP Method_Lipids Method_Smoke Method_MI Method_Stroke Method_DeathCHD Method_DeathStroke Method_TimeImprove Weighted Mean 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 2 1 Very few models without Date Correction behave well 10 1 2 1 10 1 1 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 33.92 0.45 -1 0.45 0.45 0.45 -1 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 -1 22.041 22.561 23.155 23.549 25.964 25.998 26.143 26.298 26.523 27.028 27.142 29.243 31.262 32.831 36.041 37.493 37.846 39.159 42.126 44.039 45.045 46.083 48.607 51.565 58.127 Version 24 - MIST_RefModel_2014_05_23_BEST_REPEAT_TraceBack.zip Jacob Barhak
The Reference Model Advances Since Last Mount Hood Fixes / incorporation of previous MH results knowledge accumulation New models/assumptions added Now 544 equation variations compared to 48 in MH2012 Improvement due to treatment/prevention - Date correction Population correlation assumption added New populations added - 40 cohorts: UKPDS, ASPEN, ADVACNE, ACCORD, NDR, KP, AHEAD, ADDITION Moved to MIST MIcro Simulation Tool MIST runs over the cloud! Population Generation by INSPYRED Evolutionary Computation Faster Reproducible Jacob Barhak
Acknowledgments Deanna J.M. Isaman - who is the spirit behind the great ideas. She taught me my first steps in disease modeling Morton Brown & William H. Herman for guidance, critical feedback, and growth environment Aaron Garrett for his responsiveness and help with starting with Inspyred he saved me at least a months work if not two by sending me solution code within one day. Continuum Analytics and specifically: Benjamin Zeitler for creating the cloud AMI Ilan Schnell for his work on Anaconda. All those who developed free software used and supported it: including Python, Anaconda, Spyder, numpy, SciPy, nose, winpdb, Star Cluster, Ubuntu, Sun Grid Engine The legacy IEST modeling framework was supported by the Biostatistics and Economic Modeling Core of the MDRTC (P60DK020572) and by the Methods and Measurement Core of the MCDTR (P30DK092926), both funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. The modeling framework was initially defined as GPL and was funded by Chronic Disease Modeling for Clinical Research Innovations grant (R21DK075077) from the same institute. MIST is based on IEST. The Reference Model and MIST were developed independently without financial support Jacob Barhak
