District 32 Republican Club

Dive into the insightful presentation of the Fall 2015 survey findings conducted by the District 32 Republican Club in Anne Arundel County. Discover the significant trends, opinions, and concerns of residents, covering a range of topics from the economy to education, crime, taxes, and more. Gain a comprehensive understanding of the community's perspectives and priorities as revealed by the survey results.

• Survey Findings
• Republican Club
• Anne Arundel County
• Community Perspectives
• Policy Analysis

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1. District 32 Republican Club Presentation of Fall 2015 Survey Findings Anne Arundel County Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College December 1, 2015 www2.aacc.edu/csli

2. Semi-annual Survey: Overview Survey conducted in October and March Contents devised by director and advisory board Many benchmark questions (at beginning) Demographic questions (at end) Changing middle part policy, attitudes, behaviors Administration: Telephone (by students) and online Fall completions: 589

3. Benchmark Questions Most important problem facing residents Right/wrong direction county, state and country Economic conditions excellent, good, fair, poor Economic experiences/expectations

4. County: Most Important Question - Fall 07 to Fall 15 60 Economy Education Crime/drugs 50 High taxes 48 48 Economy 40 38 36 36 35 33 Taxes 30 30 28 27 25 23 23 22 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 Crime 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 10 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 Education 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 8 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 0 Fall '07 Spring Fall '08 Spring '09 Fall '09 Spring Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '11 Spring '12 Fall '12 Spring Fall '13 Spring '14 Fall '14 Spring '15 Fall '15 '08 '10 '13

5. County: Most Important Question - Fall 15 Percent Citing 14 Taxes too high 12 Economy 10 Growth/overpopulation 9 Transportation 9 Environment 9 Education 8 Crime 7 Drugs 6 Unsure/No Answer 5 Other answer 4 Government lack resources 4 Government waste 2 Healthcare 2 Government ethics 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

6. County: Right or Wrong Direction? Fall 00 to Fall 15 70 66 62 606162 60 58 58 58 57 55 55 53 51525150 52 52 52 51 51 4950 504950 5049 50 47 47 43 41 40 38 36 35 34 333231 33 33 32 31 30 29 29 282728 28 28 25 2726 27 27 26 25 25 24 24 23 2322 22 22 21 18 2021 2120 20 20 19 1918 18 18 1617 17 1617 17 16 16 15 1514 15 14 13 13 12 10 0 F '00 S '01 F '01 S '02 F '02 S '03 F '03 S '04 F '04 S '05 F '05 S '06 F '06 S '07 F '07 S '08 F '08 S 09 F 09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '15 Right Wrong Unsure/NA

7. Right/Wrong Direction County, State, Nation: Fall 12 to Fall 15 70 60 58 51 51 50 50 50 50 49 49 47 40 36 36 35 35 31 30 27 27 27 24 23 21 20 10 10 0 Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '13 Spring '14 Fall '14 Spring '15 Fall '15 Nation State County

8. Right/Wrong Direction and Party Registration 90 82 80 70 60 59 60 55 52 48 47 47 50 45 40 35 34 31 29 28 30 26 23 23 22 21 21 20 17 20 16 15 12 11 10 5 0 County - Right direction County - Wrong direction County - Unsure State - Right direction State - Wrong direction State - Unsure Country - Right direction Country - Wrong direction Country - Unsure Dem Rep Unaffil.

9. Economic Conditions: ( excellent+good) County vs. Maryland and USA County, State and Country - Economic Conditions Excellent+Good Spring 2009-Fall 2015 70 64 60 57 Anne Arundel County 53 51 50 50 49 49 48 48 48 46 45 45 44 44 41 40 40 40 Maryland 38 35 33 33 32 31 30 30 30 28 27 27 21 21 20 16 16 USA 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 5 0 Sp '09 Fa '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '11 Fa 11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp 15 Fa '15

10. Economic indicators, Fall 2008-Fall 2015 80 74 70 66 66 66 65 63 63 63 63 63 59 63 62 59 62 60 56 60 60 59 55 59 55 59 58 58 58 57 57 56 54 50 45 41 40 40 39 38 37 36 35 35 34 34 33 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 31 30 30 29 24 29 27 27 26 21 26 24 21 20 20 19 19 14 17 16 17 16 17 12 16 14 15 14 14 11 12 13 12 11 10 0 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '15 Taxes Wages Health care Salary Inc. Unemply. BetterJob Food Education

11. Economic indicators, Fall 2015 Condition Under $75,000 $75,000+ Under $75k- Over 75K Signif Hard to afford cost of food and groceries 41 18 23 .01 Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate 39 28 11 .01 Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided 63 58 5 .10 Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living 56 52 4 .01 Facing the possibility of unemployment 14 11 3 .09 Found a new or better job recently 12 13 -1 .70 Hard to afford the cost of education 36 41 -5 .01 Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently 25 43 -18 .01

12. Economic Conditions over the next 12 Months Better 28 28 9 22 Same 52 48 42 60 Worse 12 18 43 13 Unsure/NA 7 7 7 5 Total 100 100 100 100 Economic growth Unemployment Inflation Your personal financial situation Four Economic Indicators: Better Minus Worse 29 30 26 23 22 22 21 16 20 15 14 12 12 10 11 9 9 8 10 7 7 6 5 3 1 0 Growth Unemployment Inflation Personal Sit. -2 -3 -10 -9 -13 -20 -17 -26 -30 -34 -40 -38 -38 -42 -43 -43 -46 -50 -52 -60 F11 S12 F12 S13 F13 S14 F14 S15 F15

13. Policy Questions Merger of services: AA County and Annapolis Teachers salaries Federal auction of CO2 credits Placement of group homes Is Annapolis doing enough about sea level rise/flooding Ideal size of high schools Medical marijuana How well has County dealt with various challenges over last year

14. Agree Disagree Can t decide No Public Policy Agreement answer Anne Arundel County and Annapolis are reviewing ways to combine government services. Do you agree or disagree with these efforts? 70 18 9 4 County Executive Steve Schuh has proposed to prohibit the planting, processing and sale of medical marijuana in Anne Arundel County. Some members of the County Council have proposed allowing these activities, but with a set of restrictions that limit where these activities can occur. Which position do you favor total prohibition, or allowing with restrictions? County teachers and the Board of Education are at impasse over contract talks. Teachers believe that they should be awarded salary increases even if it means cuts in other areas of school spending. Do you agree or disagree with the teachers? Do you agree or disagree with the idea that the federal government establish a cap on carbon emissions, auction carbon permits to energy companies, and return all auction proceeds to citizens as a dividend? Currently the County imposes no limits over the location of group homes for unrelated individuals with health concerns. Some have advocated restrictions on group homes locations. Do you agree or disagree? Do you agree or disagree that Annapolis is doing enough to deal with flooding due to storm surges and sea level rise? 69 27 4 1 51 33 13 2 51 30 14 5 45 35 15 5 29 33 27 12 County Executive Steve Schuh has favored high schools with 1200 students; the Board of Education commissioned a study which recommended 1600 as the target high school size. Do you agree or disagree with the Board s larger size? 25 59 12 4

15. Public Policy and Partisanship Percent Agreeing 84 90 77 75 80 73 73 70 64 60 56 56 54 60 52 51 50 43 40 38 38 40 31 28 28 25 25 30 20 10 0 Planting, processing and sale of medical marijuana: agree with restrictions (rather than total prohibition) Anne Arundel County and Annapolis are reviewing ways to combine government services. Do you agree or disagree with these efforts? Do you agree or disagree with the idea that the federal government establish a cap on carbon emissions, auction carbon permits to energy companies, and return all auction proceeds to citizens as a dividend? County teachers and the Board of Education are at impasse over contract talks. Teachers believe that they should be awarded salary increases even if it means cuts in other areas of school spending. Do you agree or disagree with the teachers? Currently the County imposes no limits over the location of group homes for unrelated individuals with health concerns. Some have advocated restrictions on group homes locations. Do you agree or disagree? County Executive Steve Schuh has favored high schools with 1200 students; the Board of Education commissioned a study which recommended 1600 as the target high school size. Do you agree or disagree with the Board s larger size? Do you agree or disagree that Annapolis is doing enough to deal with flooding due to storm surges and sea level rise? Democrat Republican Unaffiliated

16. How well has County dealt with challenges during the last year? Gotten better About the same Gotten worse Unsure/N o answer Better- Worse Problem 20 63 10 7 Improving the local economy 10 20 57 15 7 Improving the overall quality of life in our County 5 21 45 21 14 Improving the water quality of the Bay 0 18 36 35 12 Planning growth and development -17 12 27 29 32 Reducing the backlog in school maintenance and repair -17 14 46 32 8 Keeping taxes low -18 9 49 36 6 Controlling crime -27 4 50 32 14 Reducing poverty and homelessness -28

17. How well has County dealt with challenges by party County dealing with Challenges: Party Percentages saying Better or Same 100 90 90 88 85 90 83 82 79 75 80 74 73 69 68 65 65 70 64 64 63 61 58 57 56 60 53 51 48 50 40 30 20 10 0 Keeping taxes low Controlling crime Improving the local economy Improving the overall quality of life in our County Improving the water quality of the Bay Planning growth and development Reducing the backlog in school maintenance and repair Reducing poverty and homelessness Democrat Republican Unaffiliated

18. Various Politics Questions Trust in political parties Job approval county executive, governor, president Presidential voting intentions Correlations between major factor shaping your preference and actual candidate choices

19. Trust in Party by Registration Trust in Political Parties: Spring 2008 to Fall 2015 45 42 40 39 38 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 36 35 34 34 34 32 34 34 34 33 31 31 33 33 32 32 32 31 29 32 31 30 30 30 29 28 27 26 26 25 23 23 21 21 21 21 20 20 17 17 15 Sp '08 Fa '08 Sp '09 Fa '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '11 Fa 11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp 15 Fall '15 Democrats Republicans Neither

20. Job approval, Spring 2014/Fall 2015 Percentage Saying Approve - County Executive, Governor and President 80 Hogan 71 70 Neuman 60 56 54 50 Schuh 50 45 43 38 40 39 37 33 32 30 O'Malley 27 NA 35 15 10 Schuh Hogan Obama 20 10 0 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp '15 Fa '15 County Executive Neuman/Schuh Governor O Malley/Hogan President Barack Obama

21. Job Approval by Party and Ideology, Fall 2015 100 91 90 85 81 78 80 67 67 70 62 59 60 56 50 45 41 39 37 40 36 32 29 30 20 10 8 10 0 Hogan Schuh Obama Dem Rep Unaffil. Liberal Moderate Conservative

22. Presidential Job Approval Fall 2007 to Fall 2015 Presidential Job Approval - CSLI and Gallup 70 61 60 54 50 49 52 50 49 45 43 47 47 47 47 47 45 46 40 44 44 42 43 42 40 40 40 39 38 37 37 35 32 30 30 32 25 28 20 24 10 0 F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '15 CSLI Gallup

23. Presidential Preferences Leaning in Favor of a Candidate 1.2 20 18 18 18 17 1 16 15 14 0.8 12 0.6 10 8 6 0.4 6 4 4 4 0.2 2 2 1 1 0 0

24. Presidential Preferences by Party/Ideology 50 Democrats 36 45 Republicans Unaffiliated 45 47 21 2 12 12 49 49 40 38 37 36 24 35 34 35 32 31 49 30 26 25 25 23 23 21 21 19 20 18 17 14 14 13 15 13 12 8 10 7 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dem-Lib Dem-Mod Dem-Cons Rep-Lib Rep-Mod Rep-Cons Unaffil-Lib Unaffil-Mod Unaffil-Cons Clinton Sanders Carson Rubio Trump

25. Candidates and Age Groups: Above/Below Overall Vote 35 30 30 25 20 15 12 10 7 6 5 5 3 3 5 2 2 2 0 0 0 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -8 -10 Clinton Sanders Carson Trump Rubio

26. Candidates and Formal Education Above/Below Overall Vote 40 32 30 20 8 10 6 3 1 1 1 0 Some College -2 2-4 yr Postgrad -10 -9 -9 -9 -20 -23 -30 Clinton Sanders Carson Trump

27. Candidates and Gender Above/Below Overall Vote 20 17 15 10 8 7 5 3 0 Clinton Sanders Carson Trump -3 -5 -7 -8 -10 -15 -18 -20 Male Female

28. Income - Under $75k vs. $75k+ 15 11 10 4 4 5 3 0 Clinton Sanders Carson Trump -3 -4 -5 -4 -10 -11 -15 0-75 75+

29. Candidates and Issues Clinton 13.0 14.4 Sanders 14.9 Carson 4.6 6.0 Trump 12.5 Rubio 8.8 37.4 Candidates and Issues Economy Foreign policy 2.6 12.6 0.0 3.0 1.1 5.6 0.0 4.0 Inequality Immigration Spending, debt Constitution Liberal Taxes, lower 3.2 3.9 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.9 6.7 0.0 1.1 4.6 0.0 1.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 7.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 4.4 0.0 0.0 Health Care Business pro Womens issues Party Crime/safety 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 1.1 5.2 3.3 1.9 2.2 5.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 72.5 0.0 11.5 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Education Environment Smaller govt, less regs. Guns 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 Anti-corporate Abortion - anti Conservative Military Religion - pro Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 1.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 4.2 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 Total 49.8 47.4 49.0 58.2

30. Candidates and Traits Clinton Sanders Carson Trump Rubio 11.6 4.8 7.4 13.5 9.9 Leadership, competence Honest, trustworthy, independent 5.3 4.2 5.6 1.9 9.5 9.1 3.5 5.5 8.8 3.3 Consensus builder 0.7 17.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 3.7 1.1 11.9 0.0 3.9 3.5 10.5 0.0 4.0 9.5 3.3 0.0 4.4 0.0 Fresh face, change Experience America first Hard truths, frankness 4.6 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working people, cares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 1.4 2.1 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 Middle class Ethical Character Electable 6.0 50.2 1.1 27.5 1.1 52.6 1.5 51.0 7.7 41.8 Intelligence Total