Domestic Sentiment and Events Update: Week of 1/1/18 to 29/1/18
Stay updated on the week's key events impacting global markets, including discussions on North Korea, US tax plan developments, Brexit updates, economic indicators, and commodity market trends.
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Presentation Transcript
1 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Fundamentals w/c 1/1/18 NK/USA button talk NK/USA button talk Events NK/SK talks 9/1 Risk On On On Av. Hr. Earnings; Non-Farm USD Strong Tax plan +ve, Mueller -ve FOMC Mtg Mins CPI Flash Estimate Headline OK; Core missed EUR Strong Elections ve JPY Swing Soft Brexit: +ve; Brexit Phase II starts +ve GBP Strong Manufacturing PMI Construction PMI Services PMI CAD Comm AUD Comm NZD Comm Equities Strong Tax bill passes Senate +ve Gold Swing Production cap extension with caveats -ve Forties pipeline operational Oil Crazy Trades
2 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Fundamentals w/c 8/1/18 Events NK/SK talks Risk On On Off On On China/US Bonds fake news USD Strong Tax plan +ve, Mueller -ve CPI, Retail Sales ECB Monetary Policy Mtg Mins; Coalition talks deadline EUR Strong Elections ve JPY Swing Bank Holiday Soft Brexit: +ve; Brexit Phase II starts +ve Spanish/Dutch want soft Brexit GBP Strong Manu Production CAD Comm AUD Comm Retail Sales NZD Comm Equities Strong Tax bill passes Senate +ve Gold Swing Production cap extension with caveats -ve Oil Crazy Trades
3 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Fundamentals w/c 15/1/18 Events Risk On/quiet Neutral On Neutral Neutral USD Strong Tax plan +ve, Mueller -ve Holiday Gov shutdown Coalition talks progressing +ve EUR Strong Final CPI SPD Congress (21 Jan) JPY Swing Soft Brexit: +ve; Brexit Phase II starts +ve GBP Strong CPI Retail Sales CAD Comm Overnight Rate CNY GDP; AUD Comm Industrial Production NZD Comm GDT Price Index Equities Strong Tax bill passes Senate +ve Gold Swing Production cap extension with caveats -ve Oil Crazy Trades
4 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Fundamentals w/c 22/1/18 Events Risk On Neutral Off Neutral On Gov re-opens until 8thFeb Mnuchinprotectionism at Davos. Trump wants strong USD. USD Strong Tax plan +ve, Mueller -ve Adv GDP Coalition talks progressing +ve EUR Strong ECB Rate SPD Congress (21 Jan) JPY Swing BoJ Rate Tokyo Core CPI Emollient Macron; Norway transition deal agreed in principle Soft Brexit: +ve; Brexit Phase II starts +ve GBP Strong Average Earnings Prelim GDP CAD Comm AUD Comm NZD Comm CPI Equities Strong Tax bill passes Senate +ve Gold Swing Production cap extension with caveats -ve Oil Crazy SP500 long; USDJPY long out for -0.75%. SP500 long; USDJPY long SP500 long; USDJPY long Trades SP500 long SP500 long
5 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Fundamentals w/c 29/1/18 Month end Facebook, MS earnings Apple, Amazon and Google earnings Events Month end Month end Risk Sell-off Sell-off Neutral Neutral/off Sell-off Tax plan +ve, Davos emollience +ve Mueller, protectionism ve Fed Funds Rate and Statement; Trump SotN Ave Hourly Earnings and NFP USD Strong Core PCE EUR Strong Coalition talks +ve CPI Flash Est JPY Swing Brexit +ve; Pressure on May ve GBP Strong Manu PMI Const PMI CAD Comm GDP AUD Comm CPI NZD Comm Equities Strong QE, Tax bill; earnings: all +ve Gold Swing Production cap extension with caveats -ve Oil Crazy SP500 long exit at breakeven SP500 long GBPUSD short -0.5% Trades SP500 long SP500 long SP500 long
6 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Fundamentals w/c 5/2/18 Events Risk Sell-off Equity recovery Neutral Sell-off Tax plan +ve, Davos emollience +ve Mueller, protectionism ve USD Strong Coalition talks continue through yesterday s deadline. Draghi Speaks No coalition breakthrough Coalition agreement, ratification required EUR Strong Coalition talks +ve JPY Swing Brexit +ve; Pressure on May ve GBP Strong Services PMI Super Thursday Manu Production CAD Comm Trade Balance Retail Sales; Lowe Speaks; CNY Trade Balance RBA Monetary Policy Statement AUD Comm Cash Rate and Statement; Trade Balance Cash Rate and Statement NZD Comm Employment Spencer Speaks QE, Tax bill; earnings: all +ve; Current sell-off unsettling -ve Equities Strong Gold Swing Production cap extension with caveats -ve Oil Crazy SP500 long; WTI long SP500 long -1.0%; WTI long Trades WTI long
7 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Fundamentals w/c 12/2/18 Events Risk Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Tax plan +ve, Davos emollience +ve Mueller, protectionism ve USD Strong CPI and Retail Sales PPI EUR Strong Coalition talks +ve Flash GDP (2/3) JPY Swing Holiday Brexit +ve; GBP Strong Pressure on May ve; Road to Brexit begins CPI Retail Sales CAD Comm Employment; RBA Gov Lowe speaks AUD Comm Inflation Expectations NZD Comm QE, Tax bill; earnings: all +ve; Current sell-off unsettling -ve Equities Strong Gold Swing Production cap extension with caveats -ve EIA forecast increased shale production Oil Crazy API Weekly Stocks WTI exit at BE; SP500 long Trades WTI short WTI short SP500 long SP500 long
8 Domestic Sentiment Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Fundamentals w/c 19/2/18 Events China holiday China holiday China holiday Risk Neutral/off Neutral/off Holiday; 13 Russians indicted; threat of Al tariffs Tax plan +ve, Davos emollience +ve Mueller, protectionism, deficit, debt ve USD Strong FOMC Mtg Mins Monetary Policy Mtg Mins EUR Strong Coalition talks +ve JPY Swing Average Earnings Index; Inflation Report Hearings Brexit +ve; Chequers Away Day; GDP (2/3) GBP Strong Pressure on May ve; Road to Brexit begins CAD Comm Core Retail Sales CPI Monetary Policy Mtg Mins AUD Comm Wage Price Index NZD Comm Retail Sales QE, Tax bill; earnings, Vix drops: all +ve; Equities Strong Gold Swing Production cap extension with caveats -ve Oil Crazy Trades SP500 long SP500 long SP500 long
This Weeks Trading Themes - 2018 week 8 1. A quiet week US Presidents Day and Chinese Lunar New Year 2. USD oversold, at 62% Fib 3. Equities watch the Vix; SP500 at 62% Fib 4. GOLD depends on USD and Fed Mins
This Weeks Trading Profile - 2018 week 8 1. #USSPX500 2. #UK 100 3. #UK_Mid250 4. WTI 5. EURJPY 6. USDJPY 7. GBPJPY 8. EURUSD 9. EURGBP 10.GBPUSD 11.GOLD
