Dynamics and Chemistry of the Upper Troposphere: Factors Impacting Interannual Variability

Revisiting the factors driving variability in stratospheric water vapor, this study explores the influence of QBO, CH4, ENSO, and non-linear predictors in forecasting atmospheric conditions. Results indicate the importance of incorporating additional predictors to enhance prediction accuracy.

• Troposphere Dynamics
• Stratosphere Chemistry
• Interannual Variability
• Atmospheric Predictors
• Non-linear Modeling

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Uploaded on Mar 06, 2025 | 0 Views

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1. Dynamics and chemistry of the upper troposphere and stratosphere Revisiting the factors that drive interannual variability in stratospheric entry water vapour SHLOMI ZISKIN ZIV AND CHAIM I. GARFINKEL 05-05-2020, THE FREDY AND NADINE HERRMANN INSTITUTE OF EARTH SCIENCES, HEBREW UNIVERSITY OF JERUSALEM, JERUSALEM, ISRAEL

2. Synopsis - MLR results QBO, CH4 and ENSO as predictors adding T500 and BDC help account for the busts ? Cold point works fine How about non-linear predictors ?

3. QBO, CH4 and ENSO as predictors : 2010-2011, 2015 and 2016 forecast busts

4. Synopsis - MLR results QBO, CH4 and ENSO as predictors adding T500 and BDC help account for the busts ? Cold point works fine How about non-linear predictors ?

5. adding T500 and BDC as predictors does not account for the busts

6. Synopsis - MLR results QBO, CH4 and ENSO as predictors adding T500 and BDC help account for the busts ? Cold point works fine How about non-linear predictors ?

7. Adding cold point predictor helps explaining the busts

8. Synopsis - MLR results QBO, CH4 and ENSO as predictors adding T500 and BDC help account for the busts ? Cold point works fine How about non-linear predictors ?

9. adding QBO X ENSO and ENSO2 as predictors accounts only for the 2015 and the 2010-2011 (to some extent) busts

10. Training a non-linear model with CH4, ENSO and QBO results in over-fitting (i.e., see the 1984-2004-07 period)

11. Training a non-linear model with CH4, ENSO and QBO results in over-fitting (i.e., see the 1984-2004-07 period)