Economic Assumptions Coordination for Future LTSA Studies
Explore the coordination of economic assumptions for upcoming LTSA studies, focusing on capital costs and technology-specific factors. Gain insights into marginal technology costs, fixed O&M, tax rates, debt and equity considerations, and potential adjustments in the LTSA framework.
Uploaded on | 0 Views
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
Coordination of Economic Assumptions for Future LTSA studies / Reserve Margin-LTSA Study Scheduling SAWG June 14, 2019
Outline Capital costs used in 2020 LTSA Coordinate economic assumptions in future LTSA and CONE study 2 PUBLIC
New Unit Capital Costs for 2020 LTSA Sources of capital cost assumptions, Lazard s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis, November 2018 EIA AEO 2019 Cost examples from national labs and utility IRP assumptions Costs are $/kW in nominal dollars Advanced Combined Cycle Advanced Combustion Turbine Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Conventional Coal Battery Storage Year Nuclear Solar 1100 1012 931 875 858 847 838 830 826 822 818 814 810 806 801 804 806 809 811 814 Wind 1350 1337 1323 1310 1303 1297 1290 1284 1277 1271 1265 1258 1252 1255 1258 1262 1265 1268 1271 1274 Biomass Geothermal 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 925 944 962 982 1001 1021 1042 1063 1084 1105 1128 1150 1173 1197 1221 1245 1270 1295 1321 1348 1075 1097 1118 1141 1164 1187 1211 1235 1260 1285 1310 1337 1363 1391 1418 1447 1476 1505 1535 1566 680 694 707 722 736 751 766 781 797 813 829 845 862 880 897 915 933 952 971 991 800 816 832 849 866 883 901 919 937 956 975 995 1015 1035 1056 1077 1098 1120 1143 1165 3900 3978 4058 4139 4221 4306 4392 4480 4569 4661 4754 4849 4946 5045 5146 5249 5354 5461 5570 5682 6200 6324 6450 6579 6711 6845 6982 7122 7264 7410 7558 7709 7863 8020 8181 8344 8511 8681 8855 9032 3600 3672 3745 3820 3897 3975 4054 4135 4218 4302 4388 4476 4566 4657 4750 4845 4942 5041 5142 5245 4290 4376 4463 4553 4644 4737 4831 4928 5026 5127 5229 5334 5441 5550 5661 5774 5889 6007 6127 6250 1140 912 730 584 467 444 421 400 392 384 388 392 396 400 404 408 412 416 421 425 3 PUBLIC
Coordination of Economic Assumptions Some economic assumptions are system wide, for example tax rates; some are technology specific, for example capital cost and fixed O&M. Marginal technology capital cost Marginal Technology fixed O&M Tax rates Debt and Equity Debt and Equity returns CONE Study Project developer technology preference trends Tax policy changes Labor cost changes Other appropriate adjustments Potential Adjustments Marginal technology capital cost Marginal technology fixed O&M Tax rates Debt and Equity Debt and Equity returns With potential adjustments LTSA 4 PUBLIC
Reserve Margin and LTSA Study Scheduling MERM-EORM study conducted every even-numbered year LTSA study duration is roughly 20 months; starts in odd- numbered year, completed in even-numbered year Indicative study schedules below (reflects only LTSA Current Trends scenario tasks): 2020 2021 2022 MERM-EORM Study Model Input Assumption Development Model Runs Draft Report Final Report 2022 LTSA Model Input Assumption Development Current Trends Preliminary Results Current Trends Final Results Current Trends Transmission Expansion Release of next PJM CONE Study 5 PUBLIC
Questions Julie Jin Julie.jin@ercot.com 512.248.3982 Pete Warnken Pete.Warnken@ercot.com 512.248.6705 6 PUBLIC
