Economic Outlook June 2014 - Economic Policy Division
This collection of images provides insights into the U.S. GDP trends, comparing recessions, real GDP outlook, personal consumption, disposable personal income, household net worth, and household balance sheet from various years.
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Economic Outlook June 2014 Economic Policy Division
U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q4 2015 Real GDP Trillion 2009 Dollars Log Scale Forecast $18.0 $15.0 Actual $12.5 Potential $9.0 $6.5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office
U.S. GDP per Capita: Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q1 2014 2009 Dollars 55,000 50,000 Per Capita Real GDP Potential Per Capita Real GDP 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office
Comparing Recessions GDP Growth in the following 3 years 4.0 4.2 5.8 5.2 4.5 5.8 3.2 2.9 2.2 GDP Loss (Peak to Trough) -2.5 (%) -3.1 -0.5 -0.2 -3.2 -2.6 -1.4 +0.7 -4.7 GDP Growth in the following year 7.9 (%) 9.6 7.5 4.5 6.2 7.7 2.6 1.9 2.5 Months from end of recession until we reached prior employment peak 13 12 10 6 9 12 23 39 59 Months from end of recession until GDP reached potential 2 4 10 5 13 20 25 13 NA Duration of Recession 10 (months) 8 10 11 16 16 8 8 18 Trough May 1954 (II) April 1958 (II) February 1961 (I) November 1970 (IV) March 1975 (I) November 1982 (IV) March 1991(I) November 2001 (IV) June 2009 (II)
Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0 -5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Personal Consumption Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 9 6 3 0 -3 Real Personal Consumption Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Expenditures -6 -9 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Real Disposable Personal Income Billions $ 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Household Net Worth Trillion $ 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Household Balance Sheet Trillion $ 100 Total Assets Nonfinancial Assets Financial Assets 80 60 Household Assets Household Assets 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Trillion $ 20 15 Household Liabilities Household Liabilities 10 5 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Consumer Debt Service Percent of Disposable Personal Income 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ 3,500 Consumer Credit Outstanding Consumer Credit Outstanding 3,200 2,900 2,600 2,300 2,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Billions $ Residential Real Estate Loans Residential Real Estate Loans 1,600 1,300 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumer Confidence 150 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 130 110 Conference Board Consumer Confidence 90 70 50 30 10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -10
Auto & Light Truck Sales Millions 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Housing Market Trends Home Sales Home Sales Thous. of Units, SAAR Thous. of Units, SAAR 7500 2500 1200 6500 2000 5500 1500 New Home Sales (left axis) Existing Home Sales (right axis) 4500 700 1000 Housing Starts Housing Starts 3500 500 2500 0 200 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Housing Affordability Housing Affordability Index Index Median Home Prices Median Home Prices Sales Price, Thous. $ 220 280 200 180 240 160 200 140 160 120 Existing Homes New Homes 120 100 80 80 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Housing Market Trends Housing Inventory Housing Inventory Millions Thous. of Units, SAAR New Homes (left axis) Existing Homes (right axis) 125 700 Household Formation Household Formation 4500 120 500 115 3500 110 300 2500 105 100 1500 100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Mortgage Mortgage Delinquency Delinquency and Foreclosure and Foreclosure Rates Percent Rates 35 30 Foreclosures: All Foreclosures: Subprime Delinquencies: Prime Delinquencies: Subprime 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 Home Mortgages with Home Mortgages with Negative Equity Negative Equity 10 10 5 5 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Mortgage Originations Billions $ 1,600 Purchases Purchases 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Billions $ 3,000 Refinances Refinances 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real Business Fixed Investment Percent Change, Annual Rate 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Investment Drivers Percent of Capacity 120 Industrial Production Industrial Production 100 80 60 40 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Percent of Capacity Percent of Capacity 90 2 Inventory to Inventory to Sales Ratio Sales Ratio 85 1.8 80 1.6 75 1.4 Capacity Capacity Utilization Utilization 70 1.2 65 1 60 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sector Indicators 6 month moving average; thous. tons SA, 2000=100 ATA Truck Tonnage Index ATA Truck Tonnage Index 1,400 140 1,200 120 1,000 100 Boxboard Production Boxboard Production 800 80 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Monthly Leasing and Monthly Leasing and Finance Index Finance Index thous, 6-month moving average $ Billions 600 12 10 500 8 6 Total Rail Carloadings Total Rail Carloadings 4 400 2 0 300 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Domestic Bank Lending Billions $ 2,000 1,800 C&I Loans at Commercial Banks C&I Loans at Commercial Banks 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Business Confidence 70 ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Manufacturing Index 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Oil Thousands of Barrels per Day 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 US Crude US Crude Oil Production Oil Production 4,000 3,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $/ Barrel 160 140 Spot Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate Spot Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Natural Gas Trillion Cubic Feet 30 27 US Natural Gas Production US Natural Gas Production 24 21 18 15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $/ Barrel Natural Gas Prices: Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices: Henry Hub 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Labor Market Million Million 140 150 Total Nonfarm Jobs Total Nonfarm Jobs Household Employment Household Employment 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average Percent 18 700 Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate May 6.3% May 6.3% 16 Initial Unemployment Initial Unemployment Claims Claims 600 14 12 500 10 400 8 6 300 4 Unemployment Rate U-6 2 200 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Labor Market Thousands Thousands Part Part- -time for Economic Reasons time for Economic Reasons 3000 10,000 Marginally Marginally Attached Attached 2500 8,000 2000 6,000 1500 4,000 Discouraged Workers Discouraged Workers 1000 2,000 500 0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 SA, percent Median Weeks Unemployed, SA 68 30 25 Duration of Duration ofUnemployment Unemployment 66 20 15 Civilian Participation Civilian Participation Rate Rate 64 10 5 62 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Employment-Population Ratio Percent 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
U.S. Trade SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2000$ 0 -200 -400 Real Net Exports of Goods Real Net Exports of Goods and Services and Services -600 -800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$) 115 105 95 85 U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Exchange Rate 75 65 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Eurozone Growth and Jobs Percent Change, Annual Rate Real GDP Real GDP 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent Percent Change, Year to Year 14.0 4.0 Unemployment Rates Unemployment Rates 3.0 12.0 2.0 10.0 Inflation: Eurozone CPI 1.0 8.0 0.0 6.0 -1.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Oxford Economics
Eurozone Monetary Policy Percent Refinancing Operations 3.5 ECB Monetary ECB Monetary Policy Actions Policy Actions 3.0 Marginal Lending Rate 2.5 Deposit Rate 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Oxford Economics
European Growth Percent Change, Annual Rate 10.0 Real GDP Real GDP 5.0 0.0 -5.0 France Germany -10.0 Italy Spain -15.0 -20.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Oxford Economics
United Kingdom Growth and Jobs Percent Change, Annual Rate Real GDP Real GDP 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent 6 Unemployment Rates Unemployment Rates 4 2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Oxford Economics
Emerging Markets Percent Change, Year to Year 15.0 Real GDP Real GDP 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 Mexico China India Brazil -10.0 South Africa Russia -15.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Oxford Economics
Interest Rate Spreads Yield Spread Yield Spread 10- -Year Year Treasury Treasury 3 month Treasury Treasury Percent 4.0 10 3 month 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Risk Spread Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Corporate Bond Yield Percent 3.5 TED Spread TED Spread 3 3- -Month LIBOR Minus Month LIBOR Minus 3 3- -Month Month Treasury Treasury 4 3.0 2.5 3 2.0 2 1.5 1 1.0 0.5 0 2000 2001 2003 2005 2008 2010 2012 2014 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Fed Policy Billions $ 4,500 4,000 Bank Assets and Liabilities Bank Assets and Liabilities 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan 2008 Apr. July Oct. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Excess Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)
CBOs Baseline Deficit (April 2014) Billions $ Budget Deficit Budget Deficit 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Percent of GDP Deficit to GDP Deficit to GDP 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Government Baseline Outside Debt (CBO s Baseline April 2014) Billions $ 25,000 20,000 Debt Debt 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Percent of GDP 100 Debt to Debt to GDP GDP 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Government Gross Debt (CBO s Baseline April 2014) Billions $ 30,000 25,000 Gross Debt Gross Debt 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 120% Gross Debt Gross Debt to GDP to GDP 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Government Revenues and Outlays ( percent of GDP) 30 Forecast 25 20 15 Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP) 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: CBO Baseline (April 2014)
Government Outlays FY 2000 (% of total) FY 2013 (% of total) FY 2024 (% of total) 14.8% 6.4% 23.3% 34.8% 12.5% 34.4% 58.8% 61.9% 53.2% Total Outlays: $1.8 trillion Total Outlays: $3.5 trillion Total Outlays: $5.9 trillion Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest
Mandatory Spending FY 2013 (% of total) FY 2000 (% of total) FY 2024 (% of total) 5.9% 9.4% 1.7% 16.7% 15.2% 40.3% 39.8% 15.4% 39.4% 13.0% 13.0% 11.4% 21.0% 28.8% 29.1% Mandatory Outlays: $950 billion Mandatory Outlays: $2.0 trillion Mandatory Outlays: $3.7 trillion Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending
FY 2013 Revenues and Outlays Billions $4,000 $4,000 Outlays $3,500 $3,500 Revenues $3,000 $3,000 $2,500 $2,500 $2,000 $2,000 $1,500 $1,500 $1,000 $1,000 $500 $500 $- $0 Individual and Corporate Income Taxes Social Insurance Taxes Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary Source: CBO
FY 2024 Revenues and Outlays Billions $7,000 $7,000 Outlays $6,000 $6,000 Revenues $5,000 $5,000 $4,000 $4,000 $3,000 $3,000 $2,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,000 $- $0 Individual and Corporate Income Taxes Social Insurance Taxes Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary Source: CBO
Government Revenues by Source FY 2000 (% of total) FY 2024 (% of total) FY 2013 (% of total) 7.0% 9.9% 8.5% 7.9% 9.9% 10.2% 51.4% 47.4% 49.6% 31.6% 32.2% 34.2% Total Revenues: $2.0 trillion Total Revenues: $2.8 trillion Total Revenues: $4.9 trillion Individual Income Tax Social Insurance Taxes Corporate Income Tax Other Taxes
