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CLASSIFICATION OF SIGNIFICANT WATER RESOURCES AND DETERMINATION OF RESOURCE QUALITY OBJECTIVES FOR WATER RESOURCES IN THE USUTU TO MHLATHUZE CATCHMENTS (WP11387) 8.5 ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: CONSEQUENCES OF SCENARIOS
ECOSYSTEMS SERVICES: SCENARIO ANALYSIS Greg Huggins
OVERVIEW Natural habitats and ecosystems provide a range of environmental goods and services. River systems and their associated use values are of particular importance. This study followed the approach of the 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and classifies ecosystem services as follows: Provisioning, e.g. fish, riparian veg, sand winning, stock- watering. regulating, e.g. waste assimilation/dilution, flood attenuation, bank protection. cultural, e.g. ritual and recreational use. supporting services, e.g. biomass production, nutrient cycling.
METHOD The value of eco-system services to riverine and estuarine systems was examined see Status Quo Report. The profile of ecosystem services associated with each site was determined, keeping in mind they represent a wider area, and thereafter assessed against the planning scenarios applicable to the site. A list of the relevant ecosystem services that were found in the various reaches examined, and deemed to be significant, was generated as a table. These were cross checked with the biophysical experts that formed part of the project team.
Resources Fish Common Name Scientific Yellowfish, tilapia, catfish & eels All 21 indigenous fish species expected. Recreation L. natalensis, O. mossambicus, C. garienpinus and Anguillids. n/a Subsistence Riparian Veg Plant part collection food / fruits wood (indigenous) wood (alien) crafts consruction Grazing riverine riverine Water Quality Waste assimilation Waste dilution Bilharzia treatment Bilharzia productivity loss Pathogens treatments Pathogens productivity loss Geomorph Flood Attenuation Bank Protection Streamflow regulation Groundwater recharge Sand Winning Other Social Recreational Use Stock Watering Ritual Use Syzygium guineense Combretum erythrphyllum Acacia mearnsii Waterpear River Bushwillow Black Wattle Reeds Phragmites mauritianus Rivers Goods & Services Hippo Grass River Grass Ishaemum fasciculatum Arundinella napalensis
Resources Provisioning Services Subsistence Fishing Common Name Fish Invertarates Nursery Fish Nursery - Prawns Botanical Species Building Materials Estuaries Goods & Services Cultural Services Aesthetic Value Ritual Utilisation Recreational Fishing Birding Regulating Services Waste Assimilation/Dilution-physical Flood Attenuation-physical Dis-Services -biological Bilharzia Cholera Human Health Impacts Supporting Services
METHOD The biophysical specialists then identified the potential change, against a normative value expressed as 1 , that each of the key ecosystem services may undergo in each of the scenario clusters. The potential change was noted as a factor and used in later calculations. For example, no change = 1, a 50% increase = 1.5, and a 20% decrease = 0.8.
METHOD Scenario impacts amalgamated into provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services categories. Scenarios are weighted for the importance of the services at each EWR site. For example, where regulating services are significant, it will be given a higher weight. All weightings are normalised against a base score of 1. Where all four services are deemed to be of equal importance then a score of 0.25 would be allocated to each. Example: Matigulu River; CC scenario Service Weight Provsioning Services (P) 1.023 0.4 Regulating Services (R) 0.950 0.2 Cultural Services (C) 1.000 0.3 Supporting Services (S) 1.000 0.1 Weighted Score 0.999 1
RIVER RESULTS: SUMMARY Nseleni note impact can be >1, e.g. where conditions favour some species (rip veg) change that have Provisioning Services importance. Service Provsioning Services (P) Regulating Services (R) Cultural Services (C) Supporting Services (S) Weighted Score Weight 1.0917 0.9550 1.0000 1.0000 1.0277 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 1 All rivers: Results fluctuate between 0.954 and 1.043 Scenarios show little impact on Ecosystem Services
ESTUARY RESULTS Most estuaries: No significant changes under scenarios Examples: Siyaya 1 2 3 Provisioning Services 0.50 0.67 1.33 Regulating Services 0.93 0.94 1.04 Cultural Services 0.73 0.80 1.16 Supporting Services 0.64 0.74 1.19 Weighted Score 0.67 0.77 1.21 Scenarios: 1. Climate change 2. Reduction of present day MAR by 15% 3. Increase of present day MAR by 15%
iNhlabane 1 2 3 4 Provisioning Services 0.78 1.00 1.02 3.84 Regulating Services 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.70 Cultural Services 0.88 1.00 1.14 3.22 Supporting Services 0.88 0.99 1.17 1.40 Weighted Score 0.86 1.00 1.07 2.78 Scenarios: 1. Climate Change 2. Present Day including EWR releases from Lake Nhlabane 3. Increase MAR + 15% 4. Restoration Scenario to allow for mouth breaching each year. Increase of flows with interventions significant positive increase driven by fish species availability
uMlalazi 1 2 3 4 5 6 Provisioning Services Regulating Services Cultural Services Supporting Services Weighted Score 0.68 0.76 0.76 0.68 0.72 0.60 0.82 0.71 0.74 0.69 0.96 0.98 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.89 0.90 0.93 0.86 0.90 0.71 0.84 0.81 0.72 0.77 0.68 0.81 0.78 0.68 0.74 Scenarios: 1. Climate change 2. Present day including the upgrade of the Mtunzini WWTW 3. Present day additional 10% demand on MAR supplied by Eshowe Dam with an increased capacity of 15 million m3. 4. Similar to above with 10% increase abstraction from lower reaches 5. Present day reduced by 20% through abstraction from lower reaches of river 6. Present day reduced by including additional demand of 10% on present day MAR supplied by Eshowe Dam. Maximum Development
