Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and UV Radiation on Health and Ecosystems
This report summarizes the environmental effects assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion, ozone-depleting substances, climate impacts, and feedback mechanisms. It highlights the significant scientific advances in understanding the consequences of ozone depletion on human health, construction materials, air and water quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, including crops and fisheries. The assessment discusses the increase in UV-B radiation, changes in UV-B levels with and without the Montreal Protocol, and the potential impacts on people and the environment.
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Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES CLIMATE EFFECTS AND FEEDBACKS 36th Open-ended Working Group of the Parties to the United Nations Montreal Protocol 20-24 July 2015 Paris, France Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK) HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel THE 2014 ASSESSMENT REPORTS SIGNIFICANT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISMS BY WHICH STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION CAN AFFECT HUMANS, OTHER ORGANISMS, AND THE PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL PROCESSES OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PRIMARILY THROUGH RESPONSES TO UV RADIATION. 44 authors/co-authors from 17 countries, and 45 reviewers. THIS SUMMARY WILL FOCUS ON THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS RELEVANT TO THE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION ON PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS Report assessed 1600 research papers, covering subject areas from cancer biology to construction polymers, and from marine phytoplankton to global changes in UV radiation. HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES CLIMATE EFFECTS AND FEEDBACKS INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET- B (UV-B) RADIATION UV-B radiation = 280-315nm HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITH THE SUCCESSFUL MONTREAL PROTOCOL Large short-term increases in UV-B have been measured at some locations in response to episodic decreases of ozone at high latitudes, including the Northern hemisphere. 25%) at lower latitudes Arctic ozone depletion in spring 2011 led to measured short-term increases (80-160%) in UV-B radiation in Alaska, Canada, Greenland & Scandinavia, and modelled increases (15- With few exceptions, changes in UV-B radiation since the 1990s are small, and due less to the effects of ozone depletion than to other factors (cloud, snow and ice cover) At several Arctic and Scandinavian sites, this led to an averaged increased erythemal (sunburning) dose by 40- 50%
CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL Without the Montreal Protocol, by the end of 21st century UV radiation around the globe would have exceeded levels previously Now a body of published research modelling the changes in UV radiation that would have occurred over the 21st century WITHOUT successful control of ODS. experienced even in the most extreme environments. WITH MONTREAL PROTOCOL WITHOUT MONTREAL PROTOCOL Values over 11 are considered extreme Maximum UVI without the Montreal Protocol is approx. 25 The calculated clear-sky UV index for November 2065 in the expected future (with the Montreal Protocol) compared with that in the world avoided (with no Montreal Protocol). From Newman and McKenzie, 2011
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Future changes in UV radiation may affect tropospheric chemistry in ways that will increase the severity of ground- level ozone and particle pollution, with possible negative consequences for health in some areas. INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation UVexposure Detrimental effects of too little UV Damaging effects of too much UV RESEARCH OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS HAS CLARIFIED THAT HUMAN HEALTH CAN BE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED FROM EITHER TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE UV RADIATION WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW) THE BALANCE BETWEEN THESE CONTRASTING EFFECTS OF UV RADIATION IS LARGELY DETERMINED BY PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND BEHAVIOUR
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation With the Montreal protocol, changing behaviour by many fair-skinned populations with regard to sun exposure has probably had a more significant effect on human health than increasing UV-B irradiance due to ozone depletion. Strategies to avoid over-exposure to solar UV radiation remain important for public health, but should aim to balance the harmful and beneficial effects of sun exposure. WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Damaging effects of too much UV SHORT TERM LONG-TERM Increased skin-cancers Basal cell & squamous cell carcinomas Malignant melanoma SKIN Sunburn Inflammation (photo- conjunctivitis) EYES Increased cataract and pterygium IMMUNE SYSTEM: immune suppression leading to increased susceptibility to infection, reduced response to vaccinations
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Models can, necessarily, only estimate skin cancers in the world avoided. Further refinement is required but the ball- park estimate of two million fewer cases of skin cancer per year by 2030 indicates the scale of the health benefits of the Montreal Protocol. Total number of new cases of skin cancer per million people per year avoided by the Montreal Protocol in the year 2030. From van Dijk et al., 2013 WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)
Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation The success of the Montreal Protocol in protecting human health will be covered in more detail in the OzonAction side event at lunch-time today. 13.00 in Conference Room IX.
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems RELATED CHANGES IN EFFECTS DUE TO ODS OZONE-DEPELTION- REPLACEMENTS INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B RADIATION CLIMATE HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems No new negative environmental effects of the substitutes for the ozone depleting substances or their breakdown-products EEAP is producing an updated paper on the environmental effects of TFA for its interim report later this year. HFCs degrade to produce tri- fluoroacetic acid (TFA) which accumulates in water bodies. have been identified No new evidence that predicted TFA accumulation will pose a significant threat to aquatic or terrestrial ecosystems EFFECTS DUE TO ODS REPLACEMENTS HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems Improved understanding: The role of solar UV radiation in air quality (e.g. aerosols, ground-level ozone) and water chemistry (e.g. heavy metals), and that such changes may affect ecosystems. INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B (UV-B) RADIATION RADIATION Solar UV radiation has significant direct effects on many organisms and environmental processes. HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems New understanding highlights the vulnerability of organisms and environmental processes (including food production) to very large increases in UV radiation that would have been caused by uncontrolled stratospheric ozone depletion. However, there have been no world-avoided models for these effects, so their magnitude in a world where the Montreal Protocol had not controlled ozone-depleting substances has not been quantified for ecosystems. WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems With a few exceptions, changes in UV-B irradiances due to factors such as cloud, snow and ice cover, and UV penetration into water bodies have a more significant effect on ecosystems than UV changes due to ozone depletion over the last three decades. Southern hemisphere ecosystems have responded to severe ozone depletion, partly due to increased UV radiation, partly due to climate-mediated effects. WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems ANTARCTIC STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION RELATED CHANGES IN OZONE-DEPELTION- CHANGES IN CLIMATE DUE TO OZONE- DEPLETION ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS CLIMATE REGIONAL CLIMATE TEMPERATURE WIND RAINFALL HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER QUALITY TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT
Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems Widespread climate-mediated ecological changes in the S Hemisphere correlated with the Antarctic ozone holes since the 1980s. Decreased tree growth due to drought. Slower moss growth & changes in lake biodiversity Rapid changes in phyto-plankton communities Increased tree growth in southern Alps.
EEAP REPORT OVERVIEW The success of the Montreal Protocol in preventing large, wide-scale increases in UV radiation has now been quantified through modelling the world avoided . Because large increases in UV radiation have been prevented, major effects of ozone depletion on human health have been avoided. The scale of damage to health in the world avoided is beginning to be quantified. Major effects of ozone depletion on most ecosystems have also been prevented, but the effects of Antarctic depletion on regional climates is having measurable impacts in the S Hemisphere, even outside of Antarctica. Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK)
