Electricity Supply System Status Update

weekly system status n.w
1 / 13
Embed
Share

"Get insights into the weekly status of the national electricity supply system for Week 7 of 2021. This report includes data on system capacity, demand, dispatchable generation, and more. Stay informed about the adequacy of the electricity supply system."

  • Electricity
  • System Status
  • Capacity
  • Dispatchable Generation
  • Adequacy

Uploaded on | 0 Views


Download Presentation

Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.

The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.

You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.

The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Weekly System Status 2021 week 7 (15/02/2021 21/02/2021) System Operator

  2. Introduction and Disclaimer Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. 2

  3. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) 29,553 30,138 31,534 30,556 28,038 28,654 28,401 Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS 27,143 27,861 28,517 28,202 26,890 26,254 25,784 Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) 8.9% 8.2% 10.6% 8.3% 4.3% 9.1% 10.2% Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) 14.2% 12.8% 15.0% 12.8% 5.8% 11.0% 12.4% Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Date Mon 15/Feb/2021 Tue 16/Feb/2021 Wed 17/Feb/2021 Thu 18/Feb/2021 Fri 19/Feb/2021 Sat 20/Feb/2021 Sun 21/Feb/2021 1,444 1,299 1,262 1,263 407 501 582 27,959 27,788 27,614 27,506 26,841 26,005 25,324 3.0% -0.3% -3.2% -2.5% -0.2% -0.9% -1.8% RSA Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Contracted Load Forecast (MW) 30,015 29,492 29,225 29,341 28,637 27,712 27,344 Date Mon 15/Feb/2021 Tue 16/Feb/2021 Wed 17/Feb/2021 Thu 18/Feb/2021 Fri 19/Feb/2021 Sat 20/Feb/2021 Sun 21/Feb/2021 31,618 31,827 32,889 32,332 29,645 30,322 30,350 1,444 1,299 1,262 1,263 407 501 582 29,207 29,550 29,872 29,977 28,497 27,923 27,733 8.3% 7.7% 10.1% 7.9% 4.0% 8.6% 9.4% 13.2% 12.1% 14.3% 12.1% 5.5% 10.4% 11.5% 2.8% -0.2% -2.2% -2.1% 0.5% -0.8% -1.4% Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 651 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). These figures do not include any demand side products. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation. 3

  4. Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Week 7 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Energy Sent Out Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 3,981 -4.98 -4.50 GWh % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 01 Jan to 21 Feb Energy 32,156 31,291 31,293 30,796 30,280 28,983 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 226,721 225,203 224,202 219,563 206,724 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 Dispatchable Generation Energy 2021 Residual Energy Forecast 2021 Dispatchable Generation Energy 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Sent Out GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week

  5. Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand Week 7 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 3,985 -6.47 -5.32 GWh % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 01 Jan to 21 Feb Energy 32,170 31,297 31,310 31,001 30,846 29,270 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 226,808 225,248 224,594 220,924 208,150 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): Residual Energy Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 2021 Residual Energy Forecast 2021 Residual Energy (Incl IOS) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Energy Demand GWh 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 5

  6. Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand Week 7 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Energy Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 4,323 -3.44 -3.83 GWh % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 01 Jan to 21 Feb Energy 33,619 33,212 33,003 32,826 32,580 31,409 Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) 238,069 235,426 235,482 232,511 220,629 Unit GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): RSA Contracted Energy Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 2021 RSA Contracted Energy Forecast 2021 RSA Contracted Energy (Incl IOS) 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 Energy Demand GWh 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week

  7. Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Week 7 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 28,289 -4.09 -2.42 MW % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Peak Date Thu 04-Aug-2016 Tue 30-May-2017 Mon 16-Jul-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 17-Jun-2020 Thu 11-Feb-2021 Annual Peak 34,181 35,457 34,256 33,066 32,384 28,780 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 Dispatchable Generation Peak 2021 Residual Peak Forecast 2021 Dispatchable Generation Peak 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Peak Demand MW 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week 7

  8. Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand Week 7 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 28,517 -4.51 -2.08 MW % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Peak Date Thu 07-Jul-2016 Tue 30-May-2017 Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Wed 15-Jul-2020 Thu 11-Feb-2021 Annual Peak 34,488 35,517 34,907 33,746 32,756 29,243 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): Residual Peak Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 2021 Residual Peak Forecast 2021 Residual Peak (Incl IOS) 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Peak Demand MW 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week

  9. Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand Week 7 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS) Peak Demand Week-on-Week Growth Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual 29,977 -3.83 -3.83 MW % % Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Peak Date Mon 30-May-2016 Tue 30-May-2017 Tue 29-May-2018 Thu 30-May-2019 Tue 01-Sep-2020 Thu 18-Feb-2021 Annual Peak 34,913 35,769 35,345 34,510 34,155 29,977 Unit MW MW MW MW MW MW Note: 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. (2021 week 1 ~ 2020 week 1) 2021 (YTD) Week-on-Week (2020 vs 2021): RSA Contracted Peak Demand. 2021 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2020. 2020 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 2021 RSA Contracted Peak Forecast 2021 RSA Contracted Peak (Incl IOS) 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 Peak Demand MW 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Week

  10. Weekly Generation Availability Week Annual (Jan - Dec) 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YTD 2020 Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 62.65 59.81 60.28 60.03 60.43 57.82 54.45 56.77 57.59 58.91 58.53 58.26 58.97 59.68 58.22 65.04 16.22 17.98 15.71 16.17 17.07 19.11 20.65 14.69 12.97 11.84 10.62 10.77 11.97 13.62 Planned Outage Factor 12.75 11.24 17.22 18.35 20.34 19.42 18.79 19.39 21.64 24.62 25.31 25.01 27.02 26.19 25.02 22.73 Unplanned Outage Factor 24.95 20.88 3.91 3.86 3.67 4.38 3.71 3.68 3.26 3.92 4.13 4.24 3.83 4.78 4.04 3.97 Other Outage Factor 4.08 2.84 EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of the energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week) 10

  11. 52 Week Outlook MW RSA MW MW MW MW MW MW MW Week Start Week Residual Forecast Available Dispatchable Capacity 41040 41107 41202 40948 41143 41469 41812 42502 43222 42690 43977 45029 45634 46303 46943 46096 46096 45531 45734 46084 45894 45894 45894 45174 43719 43799 44221 43736 43682 43132 44427 43008 42953 43146 43391 42367 41788 42324 42255 41670 42129 40952 41967 41407 42359 42056 41895 41564 42917 42803 43586 42993 43608 43722 Available Capacity (Less OR and UA) 26840 26907 27002 26748 26943 27269 28612 29302 30022 29490 30777 31829 32434 33103 33743 32896 32896 32331 32534 32884 32694 32694 32694 31974 30519 30599 31021 30536 30482 29932 31227 29808 29753 29946 30191 29167 28588 29124 29055 28470 28929 27752 28767 28207 29159 28856 28695 28364 29717 29603 30386 29793 30408 30522 Planned Maintenance Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA) 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 11000 Planned Risk Level (-14200 MW) -1466 -1307 -1382 -1374 -1314 -907 179 332 738 608 951 1677 1945 -590 40 -276 148 -478 -188 271 81 -114 -8 401 -470 -243 686 -59 164 -297 1110 -87 -255 164 427 -408 -478 85 -98 -541 254 -1055 789 1623 4219 2039 870 361 1777 706 1000 432 1234 1147 Likely Risk Senario (-16200 MW) -3466 -3307 -3382 -3374 -3314 -2907 -1821 -1668 -1262 -1392 -1049 -323 -55 -2590 -1960 -2276 -1852 -2478 -2188 -1729 -1919 -2114 -2008 -1599 -2470 -2243 -1314 -2059 -1836 -2297 -890 -2087 -2255 -1836 -1573 -2408 -2478 -1915 -2098 -2541 -1746 -3055 -1211 -377 2219 39 -1130 -1639 -223 -1294 -1000 -1568 -766 -853 Contracted Forecast #REF! #REF! 29813 29551 29686 29646 29543 30081 30394 29992 30875 31200 31538 34741 34752 34333 33909 33971 33884 33818 33818 34013 33906 33120 32536 32389 31883 32142 31921 31833 31721 31499 32009 31733 31714 31526 31436 31408 31522 31380 31027 31147 30318 28924 27281 29397 30102 30280 30217 30837 31327 31301 31115 31166 The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This likely risk scenario includes an additional 2000 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected import at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly forecast, which excludes the expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA): 12 000 MW (11000 MW from April 2021) Reserves: OR + UA = 14 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 47 646 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units) Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 48 651 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa) Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves. < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves 1 001MW 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves 28305 28213 28383 28121 28256 28176 28433 28970 29283 28882 29826 30151 30489 33692 33703 33171 32747 32809 32722 32613 32613 32808 32701 31572 30988 30841 30335 30594 30317 30228 30117 29895 30007 29782 29763 29575 29066 29038 29153 29010 28674 28807 27977 26583 24940 26817 27824 28002 27940 28896 29386 29361 29174 29375 7611 7544 7449 7703 7508 7182 6839 6149 5429 5961 4674 3622 3017 2348 1708 2555 2555 3120 2917 2567 2757 2757 2757 3477 4932 4852 4430 4915 4969 5519 4224 5643 5698 5505 5260 6284 6863 6327 6396 6981 6522 7699 6684 7244 6292 6595 6756 7087 5734 5848 5065 5658 5043 4929 22-Feb-21 01-Mar-21 08-Mar-21 15-Mar-21 22-Mar-21 29-Mar-21 05-Apr-21 12-Apr-21 19-Apr-21 26-Apr-21 03-May-21 10-May-21 17-May-21 24-May-21 31-May-21 07-Jun-21 14-Jun-21 21-Jun-21 28-Jun-21 05-Jul-21 12-Jul-21 19-Jul-21 26-Jul-21 02-Aug-21 09-Aug-21 16-Aug-21 23-Aug-21 30-Aug-21 06-Sep-21 13-Sep-21 20-Sep-21 27-Sep-21 04-Oct-21 11-Oct-21 18-Oct-21 25-Oct-21 01-Nov-21 08-Nov-21 15-Nov-21 22-Nov-21 29-Nov-21 06-Dec-21 13-Dec-21 20-Dec-21 27-Dec-21 03-Jan-22 10-Jan-22 17-Jan-22 24-Jan-22 31-Jan-22 07-Feb-22 14-Feb-22 21-Feb-22 28-Feb-22 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 residual peak (OR) from Risk Level Green Yellow Orange Red Description 11

  12. Renewable Energy Statistics Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date CSP 504.5 PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 2,113.9 01-Dec-2020 19:00 1,229.8 23-Dec-2016 13:00 1,708.2 25-Dec-2017 18:00 1,902.3 02-Oct-2018 16:00 1,872.0 14-Dec-2019 15:00 2,113.9 01-Dec-2020 19:00 2,059.6 09-Jan-2021 17:00 Cal Year Indicator Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Maximum Max Date Total (Incl other REs) 1,488 31-Aug-2020 to 01-Sep-2020 828 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016 1,038 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017 1,336 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018 1,464 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019 1,488 31-Aug-2020 to 01-Sep-2020 1,350 02-Jan-2021 to 03-Jan-2021 1,962.0 4,050.0 All Time All Time 25-Nov-2020 12:00 200.9 11-Aug-2016 14:00 302.0 07-Nov-2017 10:00 399.7 04-Dec-2018 16:00 502.1 24-Sep-2019 11:00 504.5 25-Nov-2020 12:00 502.2 20-Feb-2021 10:00 20-Feb-2021 12:00 1,350.5 16-Dec-2016 12:00 1,432.5 27-Oct-2017 12:00 1,392.1 03-Oct-2018 12:00 1,375.6 19-Jan-2019 12:00 1,929.2 25-Nov-2020 12:00 1,962.0 20-Feb-2021 12:00 24-Nov-2020 13:00 2,576.3 23-Dec-2016 13:00 3,142.7 13-Dec-2017 13:00 3,298.9 28-Sep-2018 11:00 3,530.6 27-Oct-2019 13:00 4,050.0 24-Nov-2020 13:00 3,862.8 15-Feb-2021 13:00 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning Current Installed Capacity (MW) CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification) Cal Year All Time Maximum Indicator Annual Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy Total Energy CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs) 500.0 2,212.1 2,495.0 5,228.9 1,626,049 4,140,212 6,625,830 12,478,704 529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771 6,951,261 2016 687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632 2017 1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095 10,887,902 2018 1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945 2019 1,626,049 4,140,212 6,625,830 12,478,704 2020 12 302,732 825,428 1,274,081 2,419,508 2021

  13. Thank you

Related


More Related Content