Emerging Trends in Global Trade Policies

The world is experiencing significant changes in global trade dynamics, with emerging countries taking the lead while developed nations face stagnation. This shift is reshaping globalization, as highlighted by the rise of developing economies in the global economic landscape. The role of organizations like the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow and CAMEX in Brazil is crucial in guiding foreign trade policies amid these evolving trends.

• Global Trade
• Emerging Markets
• Foreign Policy
• Economic Development
• Policy Challenges

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1. Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 26-27 June 2012, Moscow, Russia

2. CHAMBER OF FOREIGN TRADE (CAMEX) Presidency of the Republic of Brazil Session 4 Managing Foreign Trade in a Globalized World (1) Andr Lu s Ribeiro Barbosa Technical Assistant / Foreign Trade Analyst Brazil Russia Dialogue: Economic Policy Challenges 27 June 2012 2

3. Presentation outline 1. Introduction: Living in a Changing World 2. Brazilian Trade Policy: the role of CAMEX 3. An Overview of Brazilian Foreign Trade 4. Bilateral Trade: Brazil X Russia Brazil X BRICS 5. Foreign Trade in a Globalized World: Final Considerations

4. 1. Introduction: Living in a Changing World

5. The World has changed. and is changing The world is not only living a financial crisis, it is going through a massive change: a new reality is on the way, and very fast No right answers, no ready answers, but new questions Emerging countries taking the lead (economic growth, population growth, savings consumption, access to technological progress ) and investments, Developed countries stagnated

6. The World is changing and will continue to change (2005) only two Developing Countries among the ten largest economies: China 5th and Brazil 10th (2010) China 2nd , Brazil 7th, India joins the group 9th (2011) China 2nd, Brazil 6th, Russia replaces India 9th Juggernaut: How Emerging Markets Are Reshaping Globalization (Uri Dadush and William Shaw) (2050) Six out of the seven largest economies will be Developing Countries 3.3 billion people will reach middle or upper class (2 X current situation) Most of those will be in Developing Countries 70% of global trade will be have Developing Countries instead of today s 1/3

7. 2. Brazilian Trade Policy: The Role of CAMEX

8. CAMEX (Presidential Decree n 4.732/2003) Formulation, coordination and implementation of policies and activities related to foreign trade Definition of major orientations regarding foreign trade Final decision on the adoption of trade defense measures Coordination of agencies and trade facilitation initiatives Establishment of guidances for free trade negotiations Fixation of import tariffs and tariff exemptions Decision on export financing

9. CAMEX C MARA DE COM RCIO EXTERIOR PRESIDENCY OF THE REPUBLIC / Council of Government CAMEX Executive Secretariat Council of Ministers CONEX COFIG GECEX GTFAC GTI-LETEC GTDC GTAR 08/08 GTCOP GC MERCOSUL UE

10. Composition Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade Ministry of Finance Ministry of External Relations Home Affairs Office Ministry of Planning and Budget Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agrarian Development

11. GTFAC Technical Group of Trade Facilitation (CAMEX Resolutions n 70/2007 and n 16/2008) Scope: to advise the Council of Ministers on the formulation and implementation of trade facilitation policies Operation: coordination and integration of all different governmental agencies dealing with register, license and control of imports and exports aiming trade facilitation principles

12. 3. An Overview of Brazilian Foreign Trade

13. BRAZIL 5 Geographical Regions 26 Political entities (States) and 1 Federal District Territorial Extension: 8.511.965 Km2 Sea boundaries: 7.367 km Land boundaries 15.735 km 35 Internacional Airports 37 Public Ports 42 Private Terminal Ports 64 Dry Ports 24 Land Entry Points Pop. 2010: 190 million GDP 2011: US$ 2,5 trillion 6thlargest economy C mara de Com rcio Exterior - CAMEX 13

14. Trade Balance Evolution US$ Billions 2002-2011 495 395 295 195 95 -5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Corrente / Tradeflow Exporta o / Export Importa o / Import Saldo / Surplus

15. Brazilian Trade Balance 2011/2010 US$ Million % 2011 2010 2011/10 Exports 256.040 201.915 26,8 Imports 226.243 181.768 24,5 Surplus 29.796 20.147 47,9 Trade Flow 482.283 383.684 25,7

16. Brazilian Exports - Evolution 2002-2011 US$ Millions 256.040 201.915 197.942 160.649 152.995 137.807 118.529 96.677 73.203 60.439 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

17. Products Categories of Exports % Share - 2002-2011 1,6 1,8 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,2 2,4 2,6 28,9 29,5 28,1 29,3 29,2 32,1 36,9 40,5 44,6 47,8 14,8 13,9 13,5 15,0 14,2 13,6 13,7 13,4 14,0 14,1 55,1 55,0 54,7 54,4 54,3 52,3 46,8 44,0 39,4 36,1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Oper. Esp. / Special Operations Semimanufaturados / Semimanuf. B sicos / Primarios / Basics Manufaturados / Manufact.

18. Exports Evolution by category US$ Millions - 2011 % Share % Value 2011/10 Total Export 256.040 26,8 100,0 Basics 122.457 36,1 47,8 Manufactured 92.291 16,0 36,1 Semimanufactured 36.027 27,7 14,1

19. Exports Evolution by category US$ Millions - January April 2012 % Value % Share 2012/11 Total Export 74.646 4,5 100,0 Basics 34.622 4,5 46,4 Manufactured 28.379 6,0 38,0 Semimanufactured 9.811 -0,9 13,1

20. Price and Quantum Index of Exports % Growth 2011/2010 31,3 23,2 20,9 14,1 5,6 3,6 2,9 1,7 Total B sicos / Basics Semimanuf. / Semimanuf. Manufat. / Manufact. ndice de Quantum Quantum Index ndice de Pre o Price Index

21. Main Products Exported US$ Millions - 2011 Part % % Share Valor Value % 2011/10 44.217 43,4 17,3 1 Min rios / Minerios / Ores 31.008 35,5 12,1 2 Petr leo e combust veis / Petroleo y combustibles / Oil and fuel 25.120 15,5 9,8 3 Material de transporte / Transport material 24.154 41,1 9,4 4 Complexo soja / Soja y derivados / Soybeans & prods 17.387 34,3 6,8 5 Produtos metal rgicos / Productos metal rgicos / Metallurgic products 16.432 19,3 6,4 6 A car e etanol / Az car y etanol / Sugar & ethanol 16.234 20,5 6,3 7 Qu micos / Chemicals 15.357 15,5 6,0 8 Carnes / Meats 10.457 27,7 4,1 9 M qs. e equipamentos / M qs. y aparatos / Machines & equipments 8.700 51,6 3,4 10 Caf / Coffee 7.189 6,2 2,8 11 Papel e celulose / Papel y celulosa / Paper & pulp 4.811 -0,1 1,9 12 Equipamentos el tricos / Aparatos el ctricos / Electrical equipment 3.659 4,1 1,4 13 Cal ados e couro / Calzados y cuero/Footwear & leather 3.012 33,0 1,2 14 T xteis / Textiles 15 Metais e Pedras Preciosas / Metales preciosos y piedras / Precious metals 2.961 30,4 1,2 and Stones

22. Major Markets for Brazilian Exports % Share - 2011 30,0 sia / Asia Am rica Latina e Caribe / Latin America & The Caribbean 22,4 10,9 - Mercosul / Mercosur - Demais da AL e Caribe / LA & The Caribbean, exc. Mercosur 11,5 , 20,7 Uni o Europ ia / European Union 10,1 Estados Unidos / United States 4,8 Oriente M dio / Middle East 4,8 frica / Africa 2,0 Europa Oriental / Eastern Europe

23. Exports Share % by Economic Blocks 2011 Manufaturados / Manufactured 10 Semimanufaturados / Semimanufactured 14 B sicos / Basics 32 77 16 76 46 52 4 20 21 42 15 41 19 34 27 12 64 25 38 31 frica / Africa 50 33 Europa Oriental / Demais / Others Estados Unidos / Uni o Europ ia / sia / Asia Oriente M dio / Am rica Latina e Caribe / European Union Eastern Europe United States Middle East Latin America & The Caribbean

24. Major Countries for Brazilian Exports US$ Millions - 2011 Valor Value Part % % Share % 2011/10 44.315 43,9 17,3 1 China 2 Estados Unidos / United States 3 Argentina 4 Pa ses Baixos / Pa ses Bajos / Netherlands 5 Jap o / Jap n / Japan 6 Alemanha / Alemania / Germany 7 It lia / Italia / Italy 8 Chile / Chile 9 Reino Unido / United Kingdom 10 Espanha / Espa a / Spain 11 Cor ia do Sul / Corea del Sur / South Korea 12 Venezuela 13 Fran a / France 14 R ssia / Russia 15 B lgica / Belgium 25.805 33,7 10,1 22.709 22,6 8,9 13.640 33,4 5,3 9.473 32,7 3,7 9.039 11,1 3,5 5.441 28,5 2,1 5.418 27,2 2,1 5.230 12,8 2,0 4.706 20,9 1,8 4.694 24,8 1,8 4.592 19,2 1,8 4.319 20,8 1,7 4.216 1,6 1,7 3.960 13,9 1,6

25. Exporter States Value Value % Share % Share Brasil 256.040 100,00 Cear 1.403 0,55 S o Paulo 59.909 23,40 Alagoas 1.372 0,54 Minas Gerais 41.393 16,17 Pernambuco 1.199 0,47 Rio de Janeiro 29.445 11,50 Amazonas 914 0,36 Rio Grande do Sul 19.427 7,59 Amap 603 0,24 Par 18.337 7,16 Rond nia 490 0,19 Paran 17.394 6,79 Tocantins 486 0,19 Esp rito Santo 15.159 5,92 Rio Grande do Norte 281 0,11 Mato Grosso 11.100 4,34 Para ba 225 0,09 Bahia 11.016 4,30 Distrito Federal 184 0,07 Santa Catarina 9.051 3,54 Piau 164 0,06 Goi s 5.605 2,19 Sergipe 122 0,05 Mato Grosso do Sul 3.916 1,53 Acre 17 0,01 Maranh o 3.047 1,19 Roraima 15 0,01

26. Exports by Company Size % Share by Value of 2010 Micro e Pequena Empresa / Small enterprise 1,0% Pessoa F sica / Physical person 0,1% M dia Empresa / Medium enterprise 4,1% Grande Empresa / Large enterprise 94,8%

27. Brazilian Exports Share % in World Exports 2002 - 2011 1,44 1,36 1,26 1,25 1,18 1,17 1,16 1,08 0,99 0,96 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

28. Imports Evolution 2002-2011 US$ Millions 226.243 181.768 172.985 127.722 120.617 91.351 73.600 62.836 48.326 47.243 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

29. Import by Product Categories Share % - 2002 2011 19,3 20,7 20,8 20,8 20,9 21,2 21,4 22,6 23,3 24,7 10,9 11,5 11,5 13,1 13,0 13,3 17,7 12,5 17,3 16,9 16,4 13,6 16,2 16,6 16,6 18,2 13,2 13,1 14,0 16,0 53,5 53,5 51,3 49,6 49,6 49,3 48,0 46,8 46,2 45,1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Bens de Capital / Bienes de Capital / Capital Goods Bens de Consumo / Bienes de Consumo / Consumption Goods Petr leo e Combust veis / Petr leo y Combustibles / Oil and Fuel Bens Intermedi rios / Bienes Intermedios / Intermediate Goods

30. Price and Quantum Index of Imports % Growth 2011/2010 38,4 27,1 15,3 14,3 12,9 12,8 9,3 8,9 6,5 5,8 4,5 3,8 Bens Petr leo e Combust veis Petr leo y Combustibles / Oil and Fuel Bens de Capital Bienes de Capital / Capital Goods Bens de consumo n o-dur veis Bienes de consumo no duraderos / Non-durables consumption goods Bens de consumo dur veis Bienes de consumo duraderos / Durables consumption Total Intermedi rios Bienes Intermedios / Intermediate Goods ndice de Pre o Price Index ndice de Quantum Quantum Index

31. Main Products Imported US$ Millions - 2011 Part % % Share Valor Value % 2011/10 41.968 40,1 18,5 1 Combust veis e Lubrificantes / Combustibles y Lubricantes / Fuel and Oil 33.703 18,1 14,9 2 Equip. Mec nicos / Aparatos Mec nicos / Mechanical Equipment 3 Equip. El tricos e Eletr nicos / Aparatos El ctricos y Electr nicos / Electrical and Electronical 26.395 18,6 11,7 Equipment 22.621 30,9 10,0 4 Autom veis e partes / Veh culos y partes / Motor Vehicles and parts 5 Qu micos Org n. e Inorg nicos / Qu micos Org nicos e Inorg nicos / Organic and Inorganic 11.765 14,9 5,2 Chemicals 9.138 84,9 4,0 6 Fertilizantes / Fertilizantes / Fertilizers 8.104 24,3 3,6 7 Pl sticos e Obras / Pl sticos y Obras / Plastics and its Products 7.583 -3,8 3,4 8 Ferro, A o e Obras / Hierro, Acero y Obras / Iron, Steel and its Products 6.499 6,7 2,9 9 Farmac uticos / Farmac uticos / Pharmaceuticals 6.302 3,4 2,8 10 Instr. tica e Precis o / Aparatos de ptica y Precisi n / Optical and Precision Equipment 5.103 27,9 2,3 11 Borracha e obras / Goma y obras / Rubber and its products 12 Cereais e produtos de moagem / Cereales y productos de moliner a / Cereals and milling 3.245 16,5 1,4 products 2.775 12,4 1,2 13 Cobre e suas obras / Cobre y obras / Cooper and its products 2.516 9,7 1,1 14 Aeronaves e Pe as / Aeronaves y partes / Airplanes and its parts 15 Filamentos e fibras Sint t. E Artif. / Filamentos y Fibras Sint ticas y Artificiales / Synthetic 2.342 20,1 1,0 and Arificial Filaments and Fibers

32. Major Suppliers Markets to Brazil % Share - 2011 sia / Asia 31,0 Uni o Europ ia / European Union 20,5 Am rica Latina e Caribe / Latin America & The Caribbean 16,7 - Mercosul / Mercosur 8,6 - Demais da AL e Caribe / LA & The Caribbean, exc. Mercosur 8,1 Estados Unidos / United States 15,1 frica / Africa 6,8 Oriente M dio / Middle East 2,7 Europa Oriental / Eastern Europe 2,3

33. Major Supplier Countries to Brazil US$ Millions 2011 Valor Value 33.962 32.788 16.906 Part % % Share % 2011/10 1 Estados Unidos / United States 2 China 3 Argentina 25,6 15,0 28,1 14,5 17,1 7,5 15.213 21,2 6,7 4 Alemanha / Alemania / Germany 5 Cor ia do Sul / Coreia del Sur / South Korea 10.097 19,9 4,5 8.386 41,7 3,7 6 Nig ria / Nigeria 7 Jap o / Jap n / Japan 7.872 12,7 3,5 6.222 28,6 2,8 8 It lia / Italia / Italy 9 ndia / India 10 Fran a / Francia / France 6.081 5.462 43,3 2,7 13,8 2,4 5.130 33,0 2,3 11 M xico / Mexico 12 Chile 13 Canad / Canada 14 Taiwan 4.569 3.553 3.509 9,3 2,0 30,9 1,6 13,0 1,6 3.376 7,0 1,5 15 Reino Unido / United Kingdom

34. 4. Bilateral Trade: Brazil X Russia

38. 4. Bilateral Trade: Brazil X BRICS

42. 5. Foreign Trade in a Globalized World: Final Considerations

43. A changing world What to do? A new economic reality requires new trade approach Global companies Market orientation: one eye out, one eye in: balance between external market X domestic market New currencies must take over Multilateralism X Regionalism RISKS: geopolitical tensions multiple financial crises protectionism climate change

44. Multilateralism: the stalemate at the core of the WTO WTO is complete: Welcome Russia! Doha Development Round stuck (dismantlement of the singleundertaking ) USA X emerging countries (the blame game) Preassures: Earlyharvest - mainly on trade facilitation Regional integration Partnership (TPP) effect Financial crisis and the advance of protectionism and the Trans Pacific

45. Challenges and opportunities ahead! Goverments must follow the timing of the businesses quick answers Trade facilitation means competitiveness: transparency, predictability, speed, intelligent risk analysis, elimination of unnecessary burdens and controls, coordination among agencies, customs working for economic operators Diversification of products and destinies Reorientation of trade relations new economic alliances Sustainability

46. THANK YOU! CHAMBER OF FOREIGN TRADE (CAMEX) Presidency of the Republic of Brazil Esplanada dos Minist rios Minist rio do Desenvolvimento, Ind stria e Com rcio Exterior Bloco J , 7 andar, sala 700 Bras lia DF, CEP: 70053-900 Telephones: + (55 61) 2027-7050 / 2027-7090 Fax: + (55 61) 2027-7049 camex@mdic.gov.br 46