Energy-Saving Opportunities Through Health and Safety Investments
Explore how Columbia Gas and APPRISE are increasing energy-saving opportunities by investing in health and safety measures. Learn about their approach, current investments, savings results, and decision framework for additional investments.
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Health and Safety Investments to Increase Energy-Saving Opportunities Deb Davis, Columbia Gas Jackie Berger, APPRISE National Energy & Utility Affordability Coalition Conference June 26, 2018
Presentation Overview Columbia Gas LIURP Background LIURP Health & Safety Approach Assessing the Problem Current Health and Safety Investments LIURP Savings Results Potential Savings for Homes with Health and Safety Problems Decision Framework for Additional Health and Safety Investments 2
Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania Serve 26 counties Roughly 380,000 residential customers Census Data 100,000 low income Mandated Universal Service Programs 3
Columbia LIURP Low Income Usage Reduction Program Mandated in 1988 Spending & Production Increases Primary metrics Production Goals & Savings 4
LIURP Production Current Budget $4,750,000 500 550 homes completed Company administered Contractor installed measures 5
Production Issue Ratio of Referral to Completion decreasing >2000 pre screens to reach production goals Review of Reasons & Analysis Bottom Line = Housing Conditions preventing Weatherization and limited (no) funding resources 6
Health & Safety Deep Dive High Deferral rate Been walking away for 20 years High cost of Deferred jobs No Wx = Continued High CAP bill subsidy 7
Current H&S Approach Fixed CAP on H&S costs per job Soft CAP on total spend per job Contractor determines deferral decisions Average deferral rate greater than 50% 8
APPRISE Nonprofit Research Institute Research Areas Mission Clients Federal Government (DOE, HHS) Established in 2002 Energy Efficiency Analyze data and information to assess and improve public programs State Governments Utility Companies Energy Affordability Princeton, NJ Nonprofits 10
Low-Income EE Challenge Low-Income Energy Efficiency Increased challenges serving households Significant health and safety issues Prevent installation of major measures Lost potential for high-usage customers Where/when can additional cost-effective health and safety investments be made? 11
Assessing the Problem Methodology 1. Analyze 2015 LIURP Database 2. Review cancelled job spreadsheet 3. Review job paperwork 4. Initial indicators of health and safety issues that prevented work No measure or invoice data Job marked as incomplete No blower door test data Blower door indicator marked as not conducted 12
Jobs with Potential H&S Issues Percentage of 2015 Jobs with Potential H&S Issues 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 46% 50% 40% 39% 38% 40% 30% 23% 20% 10% 0% No Invoice Data Incomplete Job No Blower Door Test Blower Door Indicator = 0 Any of Four Issues Listed 13
Jobs with Potential H&S Issues Percentage of 2015 Jobs with Limited Job Costs 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 35% 35% 33% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Job Costs <$750 Non-Heating Replacement Job Costs <$750 Either Cost Issue 14
Jobs with Potential H&S Issues Percentage of 2015 Jobs with Potential H&S Issues All Analysis Factors 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 47% 50% 40% 39% 38% 40% 35% 30% 23% 20% 10% 0% No Invoice Data Incomplete Job No Blower Door Test Blower Door Indicator = 0 Either Cost Issue Any of Five Issues Listed 15
Assessing the Problem Methodology Merge jobs with potential H&S issues with the cancelled/deferred jobs spreadsheet o 467 2015 jobs with potential issues o 329 in cancelled/deferred spreadsheet o 91 due to health and safety issues o Others due to refusal, ineligibility, etc. 16
Assessing the Problem Methodology Request 229 job files o 91 cancelled/deferred due to health and safety issues o 138 identified as having a potential health and safety issue, but not in cancelled/deferred spreadsheet Review job files audit form, work scope, measure invoice(s) Assess whether H&S issue prevented work 122 jobs had at least one H&S issue (12% of all 2015 jobs) 17
Frequency of H&S Issues Percentage of Flagged 2015 Jobs with H&S Issues 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 26% 30% 23% 21% 18% 20% 14% 9% 10% 3% 0% No Invoice Data Incomplete Job No Blower Door Test Blower Door Indicator = 0 Either Cost Issue Cancelled Jobs Any of Six Issues Listed 18
Frequency of Specific Health and Safety Issues Percentage of Health and Safety Issues In Jobs with At Least One Issue Identified 100% 90% 80% 68% 70% 60% 50% 40% 34% 31% 30% 15% 20% 11% 10% 0% Mold or Moisture Knob and Tube Wiring Roof Leak Asbestos/ Vermiculate Sewage Leak Infestation Holes in Attic Floor Structural Issues Clutter Other Issues: 19
CURRENT HEALTH AND SAFETY APPROACH 20
Health and Safety Remediation Approach Spend up to $650 for owner or renter Renter spending usually related to HVAC Owner could be roof patch, small amount of mold, etc. Contractors request additional H&S spending Approved based on potential savings 21
Health and Safety Repairs Percentage of 2013-2015 Jobs with H&S Repairs 100% 90% 80% 74% 70% 60% 50% 50% 38% 40% 35% 30% 20% 11% 10% 5% 0% Dryer Venting Miscellaneous Interior Kitchen or Bath Exhaust Roof Any Repair Mean Cost $91 $392 $304 $236 $167 $453 22
Health and Safety Spending Distribution Repair Cost (For 2013-2015 Jobs with Repair) Repair Issue Percentile 50 $90 $102 $153 Mean Min $10 $0 $8 10 $57 $31 $75 25 $75 $48 $112 75 $91 $239 $1,388 $6,464 $345 $684 90 $119 Max $635 Dryer Venting Miscellaneous Interior Kitchen or Bath Exhaust Roof Total Any Repair $91 $392 $304 $2,654 $125 $202 $350 $420 $1,016 $236 $28 $82 $85 $105 $85 $230 $170 $440 $1,025 $6,625 $370 $850 $167 $453 $20 $0 $70 $80 23
Weather-Normalized Energy Savings 2013, 2014, and 2015 jobs Energy savings based on billing data 3-year analysis to allow for disaggregation Pre-treatment usage Contractor Measures Job costs 25
Weather-Normalized Gas Savings Analysis Usage (ccf) Savings Analysis Group Observations Pre Post ccf % 533 1,398 1,449 1,515 1,191 1,211 258** 17.8% 304** 20.1% 2015 2013-2015 **Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 26
Savings by Pre-Treatment Usage 2013-2015 Job Savings by Pre-Treatment Usage 700 629 600 500 419 412 410 400 345 Savings (ccf) 313 308 301 300 252 245 222 172 200 159 100 0 <1,000 1,001- 1,101- 1,200 1,201- 1,300 1,301- 1,400 Pre-Treatment Usage (ccf) 1,401- 1,500 1,501- 1,600 1,601- 1,700 1,701- 1,800 1,801- 1,900 1,901- 2,000 2,001- 2,200 2,201+ 1,100 27
Savings by Pre-Treatment Usage 2013-2015 Participants Total Cost Pre $5,514 927 $4,935 1,049 $5,672 1,151 $5,307 1,249 $5,288 1,349 $5,574 1,448 $5,135 1,547 $5,217 1,648 $5,130 1,746 $5,648 1,847 $6,169 1,947 $6,408 2,082 $7,601 2,627 Pre-Treatment Usage (ccf) <1,000 1,001-1,100 1,101-1,200 1,201-1,300 1,301-1,400 1,401-1,500 1,501-1,600 1,601-1,700 1,701-1,800 1,801-1,900 1,901-2,000 2,001-2,200 2,201+ Usage (ccf) Savings ccf 159** 17.2% 172** 16.4% 222** 19.3% 245** 19.6% 252** 18.7% 301** 20.8% 313** 20.2% 308** 18.7% 345** 19.8% 410** 22.2% 412** 21.2% 419** 20.1% 629** 23.9% Obs. Post 767 877 929 1,004 1,097 1,147 1,234 1,340 1,402 1,436 1,535 1,663 1,999 % 104 122 118 136 159 125 151 112 89 67 54 60 101 **Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 28
Savings by Contractor 2013-2015 Job Savings by Contractor 500 433 450 400 336 350 310 296 294 300 275 257 245 Savings (ccf) 233 250 226 201 200 150 100 50 0 108 75 90 102 83 Contractor Code 103 96 77 101 74 28 29
Savings by Contractor 2013-2015 Participants Usage (ccf) Pre $8,184 1,573 $4,968 1,528 $8,322 1,478 $7,836 1,458 $5,160 1,436 $7,046 1,420 $5,105 1,619 $5,979 1,467 $8,052 1,317 $5,445 1,526 $7,677 1,716 $7,852 1,558 Contractor Code Savings ccf 433** 257** 310** 336** 294** 233** 245** 296** 201** 226** 275** 253** Obs. Mean Cost Post 1,140 1,270 1,168 1,121 1,141 1,187 1,374 1,171 1,116 1,299 1,441 1,306 % 28 83 101 74 96 90 102 77 108 75 103 Others **Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 306 169 121 108 98 96 81 78 76 66 57 142 27.5% 16.8% 21.0% 23.1% 20.5% 16.4% 15.1% 20.2% 15.3% 14.8% 16.0% 16.2% 30
Savings by Total Cost 2013-2015 Job Savings by Total Cost 500 458 450 400 367 350 318 300 Savings (ccf) 233 250 180 200 150 100 50 0 <=$4,000 $4,001-$6,000 $6,001-$8,000 $8,000-$10,000 >$10,000 31
Savings by Total Cost Usage (ccf) Savings Mean Total Cost Total Cost Obs. Pre Post ccf % <=$4,000 $4,001-$6,000 $6,001-$8,000 $8,000-$10,000 >$10,000 264 336 320 230 248 $2,806 $5,112 $6,970 $8,898 $12,288 1,492 1,505 1,511 1,504 1,571 1,312 1,272 1,192 1,137 1,113 180** 233** 318** 367** 458** 12.1% 15.5% 21.1% 24.4% 29.2% **Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 32
Savings by Total Cost 2013-2015 Job Savings by Total Cost Excluding Heating System Replacement Costs 450 410 400 357 350 300 278 234 250 Savings (ccf) 200 150 100 50 0 <=$4,000 $4,001-$6,000 $6,001-$8,000 >$8000 33
Savings by Cost Excluding Heating System Replacement Total Cost (Excluding Heating System Replacement) <=$4,000 $4,001-$6,000 $6,001-$8,000 >$8,000 2013-2015 Participants Usage (ccf) Savings Mean Total Cost Obs. Pre 1,505 1,497 1,488 1,612 Post 1,271 1,218 1,131 1,202 ccf % 451 374 353 220 $2,434 $5,101 $6,966 $11,341 234** 278** 357** 410** 15.5% 18.6% 24.0% 25.4% **Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 34
Savings by Measures Installed 2013-2015 Participants Measure Installed Usage (ccf) Pre Savings ccf Mean Total Cost Observations Post % Blower Door Test Yes No Blower Door Guided Air Sealing Yes No 1,282 116 $7,188 $4,902 1,513 1,204 310** 20.5% 1,537 1,291 247** 16.0% 618 780 $7,110 $6,909 1,517 1,195 323** 21.3% 1,514 1,224 290** 19.2% **Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 35
Savings by Measures Installed (cont.) 2013-2015 Participants Measure Installed Usage (ccf) Pre Savings ccf Mean Total Cost Observations Post % Blower Door Guided Air Sealing & Insulation Yes No Heating System Repair Yes No Heating System Replacement Yes No 563 835 $7,403 $6,724 1,513 1,173 339** 22.4% 1,517 1,236 281** 18.5% 390 1,008 $7,394 $6,845 1,467 1,191 275** 18.8% 1,534 1,218 316** 20.6% 599 799 $8,762 $5,676 1,526 1,133 392** 25.7% 1,508 1,269 239** 15.8% **Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 36
Savings by Measures Installed (cont.) 2013-2015 Participants Measure Installed Usage (ccf) Pre Savings ccf Mean Total Cost Observations Post % Duct Work Yes No Health & Safety Repairs Yes No 546 852 $7,097 $6,935 1,458 1,115 343** 23.5% 1,552 1,272 280** 18.0% 1,028 370 $7,433 $5,789 1,508 1,190 317** 21.0% 1,537 1,267 270** 17.5% **Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 37
Savings by Leakage Reduction 2015 Job Savings by CFM50 Reduction 400 343 350 300 300 273 257 250 213 Savings (ccf) 200 150 100 50 0 <=500 500-1,000 1,001-2,000 CFM50 Reduction >2,000 All 38
Savings by Leakage Reduction 2015 Participants Usage (ccf) Pre $7,183 1,437 $6,771 1,430 $7,373 1,408 $8,880 1,585 $7,537 1,461 CFM50 Reduction Savings ccf 213** 14.8% 257** 17.9% 300** 21.3% 343** 21.6% 273** 18.7% Mean Total Cost Obs. Post 1,224 1,174 1,107 1,242 1,188 % <=500 500-1,000 1,001-2,000 >2,000 All 140 80 111 96 427 **Denotes significance at the 99 percent level. 39
POTENTIAL SAVINGS FOR HOMES WITH HEALTH AND SAFETY PROBLEMS 40
Potential Savings Predict energy savings Regression analysis Job-related factors 41
Regression Analysis 2013 - 2015 2013-2015 Participants (1,372 observations) Variable Coefficient 95% Confidence Interval Pre-Treatment Usage (ccf) Home Age Square Feet Blower Door and Air Sealing Cost Heating System Replaced (yes/no) Duct Sealing (yes/no) Contractor #74 Contractor #77 Contractor # 102 Contractor # 103 Constant 0.30 -1.06 -0.09 0.05 154.56 55.80 79.58 73.69 -72.10 -106.37 -73.01 0.27 -1.51 -0.11 0.04 131.84 32.41 36.48 23.52 -119.97 -162.50 -135.24 0.32 -0.61 -0.07 0.05 177.28 79.19 122.67 123.86 -24.22 -50.24 -10.79 42
DECISION FRAMEWORK FOR ADDITIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY INVESTMENTS 43
Modelled Scenarios Decision Framework Determine how much to spend on health and safety remediation Modelled range of pre-treatment usage, home age, size, and measure investments Model calculates o Predicted ccf savings o % savings o Present discounted value of savings o Max that can be spent on H&S 44
Model Assumptions 12-year measure life Gas price at time of study: $1.04723/therm 5% discount rate Also shows results with no discounting 45
Model Scenarios Scenario 1 Calculated Fields (5% Discount) Annual Savings (Therms) Calculated % Savings PDV Savings (Therms) Max Spending Total Non H&S Costs H&S Allowance User Entered Fields Scenario 1 Scenario 1 Pre-Treatment Therms Home Age Square Feet Air seal + Insulation Cost Heat Sys Replace (yes=1) Duct Sealing (yes=1) Contractor 74 Contractor 102 Contractor 77 Contractor 103 Heat Sys Cost Other Non H&S Costs 1,500 50 1,500 $800 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $800 214 14% 1,897 $1,986 $1,600 $386 Calculated Fields (No Discount) 12-Year Savings (Therms) Max Spending H&S Allowance Scenario 1 2,568 $2,689 $1,089 46
Model Scenarios Scenario 2 Calculated Fields (5% Discount) Annual Savings (Therms) Calculated % Savings PDV Savings (Therms) Max Spending Total Non H&S Costs H&S Allowance User Entered Fields Scenario 2 Scenario 2 Pre-Treatment Therms Home Age Square Feet Air seal + Insulation Cost Heat Sys Replace (yes=1) Duct Sealing (yes=1) Contractor 74 Contractor 102 Contractor 77 Contractor 103 Heat Sys Cost Other Non H&S Costs 1,600 30 1,250 $1,400 0 1 0 1 0 0 $0 $800 301 19% 2,672 $2,798 $2,200 $598 Calculated Fields (No Discount) 12-Year Savings (Therms) Max Spending H&S Allowance Scenario 2 3,618 $3,789 $1,589 47
Model Scenarios Scenario 3 Calculated Fields (5% Discount) Annual Savings (Therms) Calculated % Savings PDV Savings (Therms) Max Spending Total Non H&S Costs H&S Allowance User Entered Fields Scenario 3 Scenario 3 Pre-Treatment Therms Home Age Square Feet Air seal + Insulation Cost Heat Sys Replace (yes=1) Duct Sealing (yes=1) Contractor 74 Contractor 102 Contractor 77 Contractor 103 Heat Sys Cost Other Non H&S Costs 2,500 100 2,000 $1,000 1 0 0 0 0 0 $3,500 $1,000 578 23% 5,126 $5,368 $5,500 -$132 Calculated Fields (No Discount) 12-Year Savings (Therms) Max Spending H&S Allowance Scenario 3 6,940 $7,267 $1,767 48
Model Scenarios Scenario 4 Calculated Fields (5% Discount) Annual Savings (Therms) Calculated % Savings PDV Savings (Therms) Max Spending Total Non H&S Costs H&S Allowance User Entered Fields Scenario 4 Scenario 4 Pre-Treatment Therms Home Age Square Feet Air seal + Insulation Cost Heat Sys Replace (yes=1) Duct Sealing (yes=1) Contractor 74 Contractor 102 Contractor 77 Contractor 103 Heat Sys Cost Other Non H&S Costs 3,800 100 3,200 $2,700 1 1 1 0 0 0 $3,500 $1,000 1,075 28% 9,527 $9,977 $7,200 $2,777 Calculated Fields (No Discount) 12-Year Savings (Therms) Max Spending H&S Allowance Scenario 4 12,898 $13,507 $6,307 49
Model Scenarios Scenario 5 Calculated Fields (5% Discount) Annual Savings (Therms) Calculated % Savings PDV Savings (Therms) Max Spending Total Non H&S Costs H&S Allowance User Entered Fields Scenario 5 Scenario 5 Pre-Treatment Therms Home Age Square Feet Air seal + Insulation Cost Heat Sys Replace (yes=1) Duct Sealing (yes=1) Contractor 74 Contractor 102 Contractor 77 Contractor 103 Heat Sys Cost Other Non H&S Costs 5,000 100 3,200 $5,000 1 1 0 0 1 0 $3,500 $2,000 1,536 31% 13,615 $14,258 $10,500 $3,758 Calculated Fields (No Discount) 12-Year Savings (Therms) Max Spending H&S Allowance Scenario 5 18,434 $19,305 $8,805 50
