Enhanced Sustainable Energy Modelling Insights
Explore insights from the real-world application of the Cambridge Econometrics E3ME model at the International Exergy Economics Workshop. Discover the E3ME approach, environmental policies, and macroeconomic impacts of exergy efficiency improvements in vehicles.
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Presentation Transcript
Insights from the real-world use of Cambridge Econometrics E3ME model International Exergy Economics Workshop University of Sussex, 13-15 July 2016 Sophie Billington www.camecon.com www.e3me.com
Energy systems modelling Current standard in energy systems modelling is by cost-optimisation Are optimal scenarios always what policy-makers find useful? Question behind our methodology: Is it possible to create a model that simulates the sub-optimal outcome of policy?
E3ME approach Macro-econometric model based on a post-Keynesian framework Optimisation not assumed, no general equilibrium Demand = Supply but Demand <= Potential Supply Under the right conditions it is therefore possible for regulation to increase output and employment
Environmental policies Emissions Units: tonnes of carbon/CO2 e.g. industrial emissions of SF6 Energy use Environmental taxes Pollution abatement equipment Economic policies Demographic change Emissions trading scheme Energy prices & costs Funding R&D Energy Economy Technology Unit: Tonnes of oil equivalent Unit: Euros Energy use investment Global oil price Energy policies Economic activity & general prices Energy use, prices & taxes Material use, IO, material tax Economic activity & general prices Energy demand Materials Unit: tonnes Resource efficiency policies
Macroeconomic impacts of exergy efficiency improvements in vehicles Efficiency improvements to the ICE Low friction design/materials Low rolling-resistance tyres Thermodynamic cycle improvements Combustion improvements Aerodynamic improvements Light-weighting Reduced driveline friction Optimising gearbox ratios Start-stop hybridisation Thermo-electric waste heat recovery Transition to alternative powertrains eg BEVs, FCEVs
Macroeconomic impacts of exergy efficiency improvements in vehicles Total cost of ownership ( ) Annual imports of crude oil
