Enhancing Statistical Innovation in Vanuatu: Challenges and Solutions

Vanuatu Journey with Statistical Innovation Presentation by: The Chief Statistician & The Clerk of Parliament

Presentation Outline Impact of Enhancing Statistical Processes Building Analytical Capacity of Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics Challenges to Statistical Innovation Improving International Trade Statistics Start of the Journey Understanding Artificial Intelligence Enhancing Data Use in the Vanuatu Statistical System Managing Land Resources More Effectively Improving Climate Resilience, Disaster Response and Recovery Good Governance Institutionalising Data Use Impact of Building Capacity Digitalisation to Measure Government Performance Building Analytical Capacity of Parliament of Vanuatu To Be Continued

Challenges to Statistical Innovation Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics Vision: To coordinate statistical activities and provide statistical leadership to enhance evidence-based decision making for sustainable development in Vanuatu. Mission: To collect, compile and disseminate quality and timely official statistical information for users in government, the private sector, the community and international organisations. Major Challenges to Vision & Mission Building Statistical Capacity: as statistical innovations evolve, there is a growing need for expertise in areas like data science, and the use of emerging data sources such as satellite imagery Addressing Data Gaps: crucial for ensuring informed decision-making, efficient resource allocation, targeted interventions, progress tracking, and promoting transparency and trust in governance. Encouraging Data Use: essential for making evidence-based decisions, improving policy outcomes, fostering innovation, and ensuring that data-driven insights are applied to address real-world challenges effectively.

Building Analytical Capacity of Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics Problem Statement Capacity-building initiatives are typically short-term and lack follow-up support, making it difficult for staff to integrate new skills into daily workflows, resulting in gaps in expertise and limiting the Bureau s ability to meet data demands and innovate. Way Forward: Long Term Approach: internal analytical training three hours per week, allowing staff enough time to understand and practice new skills at a sustainable and manageable pace. Free Software: open-source software, such as R, Git, and GitHub, these tools offer cost- effective, flexible, and widely supported solutions for statistical analysis and version control. Challenges Faced: Scaled Too Quickly: began training with a large group, but after changing to smaller groups, staff were able to engage more effectively, and we gradually scaled up again. Steep Learning Curve: R, Git, and GitHub require understanding of coding, command-line operations, and version control, which can be unfamiliar and time-consuming to master, especially for those without prior experience.

Improving International Trade Statistics Trade Statistics Reproducible Analytical Pipeline Workflow Problem Statement Producing statistics for publications is a key function of many teams across government, it is a time consuming and meticulous process to ensure that they are accurate and timely. Solution: Reproducible Analytical Pipelines: automated processes that incorporate software engineering best practices to ensure efficiency, reproducibility, and high-quality outputs by seamlessly integrating code and documentation within a single file. These pipelines have significantly enhanced operational efficiency at the Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics. Capacity Building: established a partnership with the United Kingdom sData Science Hub. Over the course of 18 months, UK data scientists provided mentorship (1-hour week) to the Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics, supporting the development of a Reproducible Analytical Pipeline for International Trade Statistics to ensure timely, high-quality outputs.

Impact of Enhancing Statistical Processes Capacity Development Major Outputs Policy Impact Ten mentees successfully developed sustainable RAP skills and were awarded certificates by the British High Commissioner to Vanuatu. Reproducible Analytical Pipelines RAP system launched by Minister Finance & Economic Management, included a demonstration by VBoS. A lot of discussion on new tables, specifically products related to NCDs. Data produced by RAP on NCDs was used by Minister to debate in parliament, leading to the gazette of a parliamentary bill on increasing import duties related to NCDs- specifically instant noodles. Trade Statistics team reduced the time to produce a monthly report from 40 days to just 5 days, an 87.5%-time savings. Time saved allowed VBoS to produce three additional country-specific tables: products related to NCDs, agriculture- targeted imports, and domestically producible imports. Over 80% of the staff at the VBoS have completed some form of R training, significantly enhancing the bureau's overall data analysis capabilities. Import duty rate for the tariff on instant noodles from 10% to 20% Partnered with the United Nations Statistical Institute for Asia and the Pacific (SIAP) to launch a free online course on RAP in August 2024, enabling professionals across the region to enhance their skills in data science techniques. Implementing RAP enabled VBoS to reallocate resources to key tasks like stakeholder engagement, improving the relevance of statistics and supporting the Department of External Trade with MSG Trade Agreement analytics. This led to a 92% decrease in noodle imports Timeline November 2021 gazette legislation Jan-Sep 2021, 266 million VT noodle imports Capacity Building Analytical Software R Jan-Sep 2022, 23 million VT noodle imports Collaborating with the University of the South Pacific (USP) to develop a RAP course, train lecturers, and integrate it into the 2025 student curriculum, equipping future professionals with essential statistical skills for regional capacity building. Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics successfully processed, analysed, and published the 2020 Population & Housing Census, marking the first time this has been completed entirely in-house. Jan-Sep 2023, 22 million VT noodle imports So far in 2024 (Jan-Jul), 15 million VT noodle imports

Understanding Artificial Intelligence Original Plan Results of Artificial Intelligence Model on Test Data Partnership with EU and in collaboration with machine learning experts Radiant Earth, we planned to use GPS data from the 2022 Agricultural Census with free satellite imagery to develop AI-driven crop maps and estimate crop counts. This AI-based system would have enabled continuous monitoring of the agricultural sector, significantly improving food security and resource management. Classification Precision Recall Accuracy Class No. Dense Forest Open Forest Forest Plantations Mangrove Bare Soil Built up, infrastructure, settlements Grassland Cultivated Scrubs Swamps Water Body 0.86 0.77 0.86 0.77 0.95 0.55 0.81 0.85 0.67 246 445 11 Challenges: 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.40 1.00 0.62 0.57 1.00 0.76 5 1 13 Change to Questionnaire: Agricultural Census was redesigned as a household-based questionnaire, which limited the collection of GPS data for crops, as they are typically located in gardens away from the household premises. 0.88 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.70 0.35 0.50 0.45 0.81 0.81 0.52 0.67 0.62 77 132 23 2 11 Financial Implications: Piloting the collection of GPS data for crops in gardens was attempted, but the high costs of traveling to remote locations meant it was not feasible financially Solution: Forest Inventory System: The Department of Forestry collected over 2,000 GPS locations for land classifications across 14 islands in Vanuatu and generously shared this data with us. This allowed us to develop an AI model, which demonstrated an accuracy rate of 82%. Overall Accuracy : 82%

Managing Land Resources More Effectively Problem Statement Vanuatu lacks a comprehensive up-to-date land accounting system, making it difficult to monitor changes in land use, population growth, and environmental impacts. Solution Artificial Intelligence & Satellite Imagery: Free satellite imagery, updated every 5-12 days for Vanuatu, offers vast, up-to-date datasets. Using artificial intelligence, this data can classify land use, and monitor changes in real-time, creating detailed maps that enhance sustainable land management and support Vanuatu s environmental conservation efforts. Capacity Building: secured partnership with UNESCAP to enhance the capacity of the Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics and five government departments in using AI for Land Accounts. Three training sessions have been completed, focusing on building machine learning pipelines and utilising GIS software for land classification, with the project continuing until end of the year.

Improving Climate Resilience, Disaster Response & Recovery Problem Statement Government of Vanuatu has no digital system for data that targets action needed to help people cope with climate change & natural disasters. Climate Change & Natural Disaster System Workflow Save key statistics on resources needed for response & recovery in Excel Use Create Area Council Datasets with key indicators Reproducible Analytical Pipelines Collect Data from within the Vanuatu Statistical System Predictive Models to generate key statistics Solution Partnership: VBoS, MoCCA & SPC Management Information System: centralised platform for the integration, analysis, and dissemination of critical data related to climate change and natural disasters, enabling more effective decision-making and resource allocation. Save key statistics on slow moving impacts of Climate Change as Excel Artificial Intelligence Extract information from Satellite Imagery Process Satellite imagery Create Area Council Datasets with key indicators Capacity Building: further AI training on land classification, agricultural productivity monitoring, coastal environmental changes, and climate forecasting Climate Change & Natural Disaster Management Information System integrates outputs from Reproducible Analytical Pipelines and Artificial Intelligence Management Information System stores and visualizes the data in a dashboard format for decision- making Launching: March/April 2025

Enhancing Data Use in Vanuatu Statistical System Problem Statement Government institutions have struggled to systematically use data to track development progress due to the lack of accessible, reliable data. Solution: National Sustainable Development Plan (NSDP) Open Indicator Tracking Platform & Mobile App: The NSDP, Vanuatu's highest policy framework, is supported by the platform, which provides data visualisation through graphs, tables, and maps to improve access to official statistics and metadata. In addition to tracking NSDP indicators, the platform features datasets on government budgets, business licenses, VAT, trade, and education. Development Data Pipeline: leveraging RAP and AI, data can be efficiently processed and transformed into clear, easily understood indicators, converting complex datasets into actionable insights. Additionally, database KIMS being developed- a respiratory for government data. These indicators can then be easily uploaded to the NSDP platform, ensuring accessible data for all users. NSDP Platform & Mobile App Launching: November 2024

Good Governance Parliament of Vanuatu Mission: To deliver high quality services in a timely manner in law making, oversight, scrutiny and representation of the people and parliamentary services Parliament compromises 52 Members, elected by the people of Vanuatu Organisational Structure Office of the Clerk of Parliament Corporate Services Hansard Division House and Procedure Division Standing Committee Divisions Finance Editor English Public Accounts Sergeant at Arms Members of the Vanuatu Parliament have three key roles Reviewing and approving proposed Laws including National Budget Overseeing and scrutinizing Government Representing people of Vanuatu Human Resources House and Procedures Social Affairs Editor French Economic & Foreign Policies ICT Legal Services Library & Information Services Constitutional & Institutional

Building Analytical Capacity of Parliament of Vanuatu Problem Statement The Parliament of Vanuatu, as the highest decision-making body, lacks access to trusted and reliable statistics needed to evaluate both government performance and the impact of investment on national development. PARLIAMENTARY CIVIL SERVANTS MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT Training Focus- 18 participants Policy Briefs: developed using census, survey, and administrative data Training Sessions: VBoS supported Parliamentary Civil Servants to answer key questions aligned to government frameworks (NSDP, Corporate Plan, Business Plan, Budget) using official statistics Training Focus- 6 MPs Constituency Profiles: developed using 2020, 2016, 2009 Population Census to create easily understood infographics Training Sessions: VBoS & Parliamentary Civil Servants supported MPs to make Policy recommendations made from Constituency Profiles Content Training 1. National Statistical System 2. Alignment of Government Frameworks 3. Data Quality, Meta-Data & Disaggregated Data 4. Data Sources 5. Data Interpretation & Use 6. Data Communication 7. Financial Statistics Content Training 1. Introduction 2. Access to Services 3. Status of the Economy 4. Disaster, Water, Sanitation & Hygiene 5. Monetary Wealth 6. NSDP Platform & App

Impact of Building Capacity Key Successes Built capacity of 6 Members of Parliament, 18 Parliamentary Civil Servants, and improved statistical literacy of 8 government Departments through alignment of framework workshops Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics invited and spoke at Parliament and the World Data Forum for first time Evidence taken from MP briefings for Constituency profiles, used to change private banking policies (more accessible) Parliamentary civil servants assessed (pre & post assessment), improved against all 17 learning objectives Council of Ministers Decision 55 (Sep 2024): outcome of project, mandate DSPPAC, MFEM & OPSC to continue to monitor alignment of planning documents to NSDP, including Corporate Plan, Business Plan and Budget Narrative Ministry of Education recently run internal workshop to align their frameworks to budget- due to improved statistical literacy Launch of 18 Constituency Profiles June 2024

Digitalisation to Measure Government Performance Improve Government Performance, Financial Accountability, Transparency & Understanding of Impact of Investment NSDP Goal 1 NSDP We must align our Business Plan activities to the Corporate Plan and, our Corporate Plan to the NSDP (highest policy framework). The budget narrative will then show the impact of investment. Results (2016-2030) NSDP Policy Objectives/ Outcome Indicators 1.1 1) Create coding system to link NSDP, Corporate Plan, Business Plan and Budget Corporate Plans (5 years) 2) Digitalise New Project Proposal (NPP) and Government Investment Project (GIP) forms Output Indicators 1.1.1 Business Plans (Yearly) Implementation 3) Coding system goes into NPP & GIP digital system and then linked to Financial Management Information System Program / Activity 1.1.1.a Budget Narratives (Yearly) Output Inputs Table that links all government departments activities & budget to their Corporate Plans and aligned NSDP Objectives in csv format Vanuatu 2030 | The People's Plan

Institutionalising Data Use Problem Statement The Public Service Act mandates Directors General to provide annual reports to inform the Government, Parliament, and the people of Vanuatu about each Ministry s activities and achievements. However, these reports currently lack a standardized format, making it difficult to extract relevant data, often resulting in a "treasure hunt" for key information. This lack of consistency and accessibility hampers effective evaluation and transparency regarding the performance of ministries and their contributions to national development. INITIAL ANNUAL REPORTS THREE KEY COMPONENTS PROJECT PARTNERS Ministry of Health 1st Partnering with Ministries- build their statistical capacity to develop Annual Reports that align government frameworks and use official statistics to monitor and evaluate progress. Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics Ministry of Education and Training Parliament of Vanuatu Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fisheries & Biosecurity Department of Strategic Policy Planning & Aid Coordination 2nd Digitalisation of Alignment of Government Frameworks linked with Financial Management Information System Ministry of Climate Change Adaptation, Meteorology & Geo-Hazards, Energy, Environment and Disaster Management Department of Finance and Treasury 3rd Parliamentary Committees submit Workplans- identify key policy areas and develop tailored evidence, including policy briefs and presentations, to support effective policymaking. Ministry of Finance and Economic Management Public Service Commission National Audit Office Ministry of Tourism, Trade, Commerce and Ni-Vanuatu Business Annual Reports should become most important policy document in country used by government, development partners and private sector