Enrollment Projections and Resident Data for Educational Planning

BOARD OF TRUSTEES MEETING ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS, CAPACITY & OPEN ENROLLMENT JANUARY 21, 2020

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION REPORT Each year, the District receives enrollment projection data from Tom Williams of Enrollment Projection Consultants (EPC). The current report is the 15th consecutive one completed by EPC. EPC has been very accurate in its short term projections for the District. The District relies on enrollment projections to assist in calculating hiring needs, classroom needs, course needs and plan for future construction. Therefore, having such accurate projections is vital to our success.

ATTENDING VS. RESIDENT ENROLLMENT Enrollment data provided by EPC focuses on resident enrollment. Resident enrollment is based upon where students reside and the corresponding school for that area/attendance boundary. The data used by the District focuses on attending enrollment. Attending enrollment is based upon where the students actually attend school. Attending enrollment differs from resident enrollment because of inter and intra district transfers. These transfers are due to special programs, employee privilege, senior privilege and more.

DISTRICT RESIDENT ENROLLMENT As of 10-15-19, District resident enrollment was 10,859 (Gr. 9-12).* This was an increase of 10 studentsfrom 2018-19. 11,200 11,100 11,000 10,931 10,849 10,859 10,900 10,742 10,800 10,700 10,585 10,570 10,600 10,514 10,511 10,500 10,379 10,400 10,233 10,300 10,139 10,200 10,100 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 *This data does not includeInter District Transfer Students.

RESIDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2020-21 Actual 2019-20 2,197 2,436 2,214 2,424 1,588 10,859 Proj. 2020-21 2,264 2,416 2,085 2,359 1,583 10,707 1-Yr. Change 67 -20 -129 -65 -5 -152 Site Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook District Total *This data includes Non Public School Enrollments, but not Inter-district transfers.

RESIDENT PROJECTIONS: 2 YEARS (2021-22) Actual 2019-20 2,197 2,436 2,214 2,424 1,588 10,859 Proj. 2020-21 2,264 2,416 2,085 2,359 1,583 10,707 Proj. 2021-22 2,228 2,349 1,991 2,328 1,478 10,374 2-Yr. Change 31 -87 -223 -96 -110 -458 Site Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook District Total *This data includes Non Public School Enrollments, but not Inter-district transfers.

RESIDENT PROJECTIONS: 5 YEARS (2024-25) Actual 2019-20 2,197 2,436 2,214 2,424 1,588 10,859 Proj. 2024-25 2,099 2,085 1,833 2,136 1,305 9,458 5-Yr. Change -98 -351 -381 -288 -283 -1,401 Site Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook District Total *This data includes Non Public School Enrollments, but not Inter-district transfers.

SCHOOL RESIDENT ENROLLMENT* 2,550 2,438 2,440 2,436 2,416 2,404 2,450 2,388 2,341 2,373 2,349 2,349 2,432 2,292 2,424 2,350 2,264 2,370 2,360 2,359 2,200 2,334 2,328 2,327 2,214 2,250 2,173 2,261 2,264 2,085 2,136 2,228 2,100 2,150 2,202 2,197 2,185 2,142 2,126 2,050 2,099 2,099 2,085 2,047 1,950 1,991 1,981 1,973 1,938 1,850 1,886 1,748 1,833 1,704 1,750 1,639 1,624 1,650 1,588 1,586 1,583 1,550 1,478 1,420 1,450 1,363 1,305 1,350 Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook 1,250 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 *2020-21 and beyond are projected enrollments. 2022-23 & 2023-24 are extrapolated totals .

RESIDENT PROJECTIONS LONG TERM DATA 12-Year Resident Enrollment Trends In High School Attendance Areas: LYNBROOK HIGH SCHOOL 4 5 6 TK 0 0 0 0 0 0 K 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 TK-12 4,933 4,858 4,797 4,805 4,841 4,897 4,837 4,725 4,570 4,400 4,276 4,182 4,120 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 11 220 254 307 323 376 385 377 381 447 444 451 439 422 2014 35 202 264 274 321 327 377 400 389 388 440 442 447 419 2015 27 187 236 283 287 339 335 376 409 387 382 440 442 440 2016 28 177 197 267 298 299 349 363 377 406 391 376 441 431 2017 32 184 207 231 284 309 303 361 363 378 434 389 373 428 2018 25 219 214 223 257 289 324 320 364 361 401 435 385 365 2019 35 172 244 236 224 277 301 345 323 375 375 402 434 377 252 248 343 316 367 348 407 418 403 450 467 451 463 239 285 273 360 336 387 373 423 417 410 444 468 443 254 268 297 303 376 340 406 393 429 420 414 445 452 240 296 303 321 340 394 385 424 396 436 430 401 439 253 293 338 322 333 353 429 410 423 426 432 432 397 222 279 317 361 358 364 383 447 425 450 439 437 415 Net change to 2019 compared to highest total since 2007 = -813 Source: Enrollment Projection Consultants Annual Enrollment Forecast Report 12/2019

RESIDENT PROJECTIONS LONG TERM DATA 12-Year Resident Enrollment Trends In High School Attendance Areas: MONTA VISTA HIGH SCHOOL 4 5 6 TK 0 0 0 0 0 0 K 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 TK-12 7,604 7,522 7,499 7,532 7,515 7,486 7,436 7,316 7,162 6,977 6,696 6,460 6,227 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 36 410 486 511 553 610 611 625 605 635 559 584 614 597 2014 55 348 472 518 495 578 601 642 633 611 633 546 583 601 2015 74 391 406 487 535 498 584 595 646 612 605 618 537 574 2016 56 367 424 429 483 528 511 588 606 644 605 596 605 535 2017 57 354 391 457 441 487 507 486 562 581 618 578 585 592 2018 70 348 375 441 460 432 489 516 484 553 541 606 575 570 2019 57 371 388 378 451 456 427 498 523 464 527 524 596 567 491 534 571 505 556 531 593 615 644 598 627 658 681 458 526 540 579 510 547 582 581 625 693 614 616 651 467 515 549 567 597 517 576 597 589 641 687 593 604 492 521 542 565 581 599 544 572 602 618 644 670 582 455 537 541 588 585 579 615 527 576 607 613 637 655 436 494 550 588 601 602 599 630 545 584 610 613 634 Net change to 2019 compared to highest total since 2007 = -1,377 Source: Enrollment Projection Consultants Annual Enrollment Forecast Report 12/2019

LHS SUPPLEMENTAL SCHOOL ASSIGNMENT PROGRAM In 2015, the disparity in resident enrollments between Lynbrook and the other 4 district schools, began to grow. This prompted the creation of the Citizens Advisory Committee (CAC). The purpose of the CAC was to study the enrollment needs of FUHSD and to provide a report and findings to the FUHSD Board of Trustees. The result of the CAC recommendation was the Lynbrook Supplemental School Assignment Program (LSSAP), which allowed students in the Hyde Middle School Attendance area and transfer students enrolled at Miller and McAuliffe Middle Schools to apply for a transfer to Lynbrook High School. The CAC continues to meet to monitor changes in enrollment and recently recommended a two year extension of this program, which the Board approved in December.

QUALIFIED LSSAP PROJECTIONS At least 368 Students are Qualifiedto Participate in the LSSAP; Miller = 50, Hyde = 298 and McAuliffe = 20 Application Period: January 13 to Jan 23 at 3:00 PM. Application available online at www.fuhsd.org/enrollment If the number of applications for students in the Hyde attendance area exceeds the 16 openings at Lynbrook High School, then a lottery will be held to determine those eligible for transfer If needed, the Lottery will be held on Jan. 24 at 8AM All families will be notified via email of the acceptance or rejection of their application by Jan. 27, 2020.

DISTRICT ATTENDING ENROLLMENT As of 10-15-19, District attending enrollment was 10,950 (Gr. 9-12).* This was an increase of 43 studentsfrom 2018-19. 11,200 11,100 11,007 10,950 11,000 10,907 10,822 10,900 10,800 10,725 10,655 10,625 10,645 10,700 10,600 10,481 10,500 10,351 10,400 10,235 10,300 10,200 10,100 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 *This data does not include Non Public School Enrollments

ATTENDING ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2020-21 ATTENDING ENROLLMENT 1 YEAR Actual 2019-20 2,158 2,422 2,178 2,255 1,922 43 10,978 Proj. 2020-21 2,228 2,401 2,045 2,185 1,941 41 10,842 1-Yr Change 70 -21 -133 -70 19 -2 -137 Site Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook NPS & CDS District Total

ATTENDING ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2021-22 ATTENDING ENROLLMENT 2 YEAR Actual 2019-20 2,158 2,422 2,178 2,255 1,922 43 Proj. 2020-21 2,228 2,401 2,045 2,185 1,941 41 10,842 Proj. 2021-22 2,190 2,334 1,959 2,161 1,831 41 10,516 2-Yr Change 32 -88 -219 -94 -91 -2 -462 Site Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook NPS & CDS District Total 10,978 NPS = Non Public School (Sp. Ed.) & CDS = Community Day School

SCHOOL ATTENDING ENROLLMENT* 2500 2441 2,424 2,422 2404 2,401 2397 2366 2400 2358 2,334 2334 2,290 2353 2300 2,255 2322 2303 2,228 2273 2,268 2,190 2,178 2200 2232 2,185 2,161 2,158 2150 2100 2104 2,066 2,045 2000 2030 1962 1959 1,959 1,941 1900 1,922 1,851 1841 1800 1,831 1824 1767 1750 1700 Fremont Homestead Monta Vista Cupertino Lynbrook 1600 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 *2019-20 & 2020-21 are Projected. Does not include Community Day School or Non Public School

SCHOOL CAPACITY Each year, the District conducts a school capacity calculation for the following school year. In general, school capacity is the number of students that can be enrolled in a school. The annual capacity review is needed due to the changing nature of school campuses and other factors that affect school capacity. These changes can be due to construction, change of use for a room(s), or changes in the assumptions used in the calculation. Large changes in educational capacity are usually the result of construction projects being completed. In the last few years, Cupertino, Monta Vista, Homestead and Fremont all completed construction projects that included new classrooms.

SCHOOL CAPACITY & CONSTRUCTION As noted earlier, construction projects can change school capacity. Construction projects can also make it difficult to calculate capacity while the projects are ongoing. Thanks to Measure CC, all classrooms in the district will be modernized over the next several years. This project will require entire wings of classrooms to be closed and then reopened when completed. Therefore, the District will not be creating a new Capacity Report for 2020-21. Instead, the previous Capacity Report (2018-19) and associated school capacities shall remain unchanged.

RECOMMENDATION: CAPACITY Based on the results of the 2018-19 District Capacity Study, it is recommended that the Board of Trustees approve the capacity of each school for 2020-21 to remain the same: School Capacity 20-21 Cupertino 2,566 Fremont 2,127 Homestead 2,295 Lynbrook 1,803 Monta Vista 2,410 Total 11,201

CONSTRUCTION & NEEDED FLEXIBILITY The Measure CC classroom modernization plan is not yet fully completed and approved. The Bond Construction Team is working to create a plan that will minimize temporary housing expenses, while maintaining an adequate number of classrooms at each school. The modernization plan must be flexible to accommodate changes in enrollment and changes in construction timelines.

RECOMMENDATION Due to the ongoing classroom remodel project and the need for flexibility in the number of classrooms at each school, it is recommended that the Board of Trustees declare all schools closed for intra district open enrollment for the 2020-21 school year. Please note that the Lynbrook Supplemental School Assignment Program (LSSAP) will continue next year, as approved by the Board and is not affected by the above recommendation.