ERCOT Forward Markets Update - July 12, 2023 - Summary & Insights
Stay informed with the latest updates on ERCOT Forward Markets through the detailed analysis provided in this report, covering key aspects such as ECRS procurements, resource mix awards, deployment events, and more. Get valuable insights into market dynamics, performance evaluations, and future considerations based on the analyzed data and trends. Stay ahead in the energy sector with this comprehensive overview of the recent developments in ERCOT markets.
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Presentation Transcript
ECRS Update Alfredo Moreno Manager, Forward Markets July 12, 2023 (Updated on August 8, 2023, with updated data on slide 8 based on improved methodology)
Agenda Summary of what was shared at TAC Follow-up from TAC Can ERCOT provide more data? Was there a change in Non-Spin resource mix awards? Questions Appendix 2 PUBLIC
Day-Ahead Market ECRS June 10-27, 2023 (from TAC) ECRS daily procurement 2,073 average procured MW/hour 3 PUBLIC 3
ECRS Deployments (from TAC) For the period of Jun 10-18, 2023, Quick Start Resources (~50%), Thermal Resources (~33%) and Energy Storage Resources (~12%) provided majority of the ECRS in Real Time. There were 3 events that resulted in deployment of SCED dispatchable ECRS. Date and Time Released to SCED Date and Time Recalled Duration of Event Maximum MWs Released Reason 6/14/2023 19:20 6/14/2023 19:33 12:28 600 Insufficient capability for forecasted 10min Ahead Net Load 6/18/2023 19:20 6/18/2023 19:46 25:25 200 Frequency below 59.91Hz 6/16/2023 18:31 6/16/2023 18:36 04:40 430 Key Takeaway: ECRS performed well in all deployments and helped recover from the events that triggered deployment. 4 PUBLIC 4
Deployments (from TAC) 6/14/2023 at 19:20 (manual) SCED Dispatchable MW Released: 600 MW Deployment Duration: 12 minutes and 28 seconds Min HDL GEN: 1467.2 Max System Lambda: 136.9 Reason: Insufficient capability for forecasted 10min Ahead Net Load. 6/16/2023 at 18:31 (frequency trigger) SCED Dispatchable MW Released: 430 MW Duration: 4 minutes and 40 seconds Reason: Frequency below 59.91Hz due to unit trip (~632 MW instantaneous, 1235 MW total) 6/18/23 at 19:20 (manual) SCED Dispatchable MW Released: 200 MW Duration: 25 minutes and 25 seconds Min HDL GEN: 1515.7 Max System Lambda: 873.8 Reason: Insufficient capability for forecasted 10min Ahead Net Load. 6/20/23 at 16:21 (manual) ERCOT deployed up to 1900 MW of ECRS in steps as dispatchable headroom reduced during the period of 16:21 and 21:01 (4 hours and 40 minutes) 5 PUBLIC 5
Follow-up from TAC to WMS Can ERCOT provide more data? ERCOT offers the following links for MPs to consider for data Aggregate AS offer curves/Cleared AS/Self-Arranged AS (2-Day) Ability to see MW amounts for each AS type at each offered price point Ability to see cleared and self-arranged MW amounts Highest price offer selected (3-Day) Ability to see highest offer price selected, although published MCPC price may be higher due to co-optimization opportunity costs Total AS offers (Daily) Ability to see daily total MW AS offers for each hour 6 PUBLIC 6
Follow-up from TAC to WMS Was there a change in Non-Spin resource mix after ECRS go-live? Below ERCOT provides a before/after ECRS go-live to show change (if any) in resource mix for non-spin awards. Graphic below is compressed but intended to reflect: Average Non-Spin amount procured per Operating Hour week before ECRS (first and brightest bar graphic) and week after ECRS (second and lighter) Observations: NSPIN requirement was decreased after ECRS go-live Proportionally less NSPIN from ESR, CLR, NCLR and more NSPIN from CC and other thermal QSGR (proportionally increased during peak hours, decreased in off-peak) 7 PUBLIC 7
ECRS released MW vs Utilized MW on OD 6/20/23 (Updated 8/8/23) 2500 6000 5000 2000 System Lambda ($/MWh) 4000 1500 ECRS (MW) 3000 1000 2000 500 1000 0 0 6/20/2023 16:00 6/20/2023 17:00 6/20/2023 18:00 6/20/2023 19:00 6/20/2023 20:00 6/20/2023 21:00 6/20/2023 22:00 ecrs_released_mw ecrs_utilized_mw SYSTEM_LAMBDA System-Wide prices were elevated during the study period. Majority of Resources with ECRS MW released were dispatched to their HDLs. A few Resources had released ECRS MW not utilized by SCED because of local transmission congestions and/or high energy offer curves. 8 PUBLIC 8
ECRS deployment SCED released MW by Resource Type 9 PUBLIC 9
Wrap-Up and Question ERCOT is prepared to help support future discussion and analysis of ECRS during the early weeks/months of the new AS. - ERCOT can support questions at WMS or a designated WMS working group, while also recognizing certain analysis needs to be at ROS/PDCWG. - Questions? - PUBLIC 10
Appendix 11 PUBLIC 11
Average NSPIN Awards Resource Mix 12 PUBLIC 12
