Estimating the Cost of the Aegis Flight III Test Platform
The analysis focuses on cost estimates for performing live fire testing of the Aegis Combat System, contributing to the final test plan development. It includes various cost estimating relationships (CERs) for future studies, covering equipment procurement, installation, activation, and rental costs for different platforms.
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Estimating the Cost of the Aegis Flight III Test Platform 1 Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Agenda Intro Scope Work Breakdown Structure Data Collection Ground Rules and Assumptions Model Development CERs Results Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Jeremy Goucher ICEAA 2016 Herren Associates, Inc. 2
Intro The latest version of the Aegis Combat System is currently under development and will include the Navy s newest radar the Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR). The Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) under the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) requested an analysis of four alternative methods to perform live fire testing of the system at sea. Navy disagrees with OSD DOT&E position that a Flight III test ship is required; cost estimates were provided by direction. This analysis directly contributes to the development of the final test plan for the Aegis Combat System. This analysis resulted in various cost estimating relationships (CERs) which can be used for future cost studies. Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Jeremy Goucher ICEAA 2016 Herren Associates, Inc. 3
Scope Required Equipment AMDR Aegis Weapon System (AWS) SPQ-9B Vertical Launch System (VLS) Navigation Systems Close In Weapon System Fire Control System (FCS) Moriah Wind System Cooperative Engagement Processors (CEP) Remote Control Systems Range upgrades required to support test events Four alternative platforms EDD 964 Ex-Paul F. Foster CG-47 Ticonderoga Class Cruiser Roll-On, Roll-Off (RO-RO) commercial vessel Commercial barge The estimate needed to account for all activities associated with procurement, installation, and activation of the identified systems as well as rental costs for commercial vessels. Additionally the estimate accounted for potential cost recovery resulting from equipment removal and reuse. Operational Test (OT) events were out of scope. Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Jeremy Goucher ICEAA 2016 Herren Associates, Inc. 4
Work Breakdown Structure Ship Design Space, Power, Weight requirements Vessel Procurement Rental cost of commercial vessels Equipment Procurement Total procurement unit cost of each required system Equipment Installation Shipboard installation and checkout of each required system Activation / Pre-operational Testing Activation of the ship, sea trials, and developmental testing (DT) Range Facility Upgrades Procurement and installation of equipment needed for required upgrades to the test ranges Sustainment Equipment Removal and Refurbishment Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Jeremy Goucher ICEAA 2016 Herren Associates, Inc. 5
Data Collected Procurement Contracts Obligation / Expenditure Reports Technical space and weight data Subject matter expert (SME) opinion for engineering and design hours Forward rate pricing agreements (FRPAs) Warfare Center Stabilized Rates Memo Previously computed cost estimating relationships (CERs) Procurement Support Costs (PM, SE, ILS, CM, others) Installation cost to weight Installation cost to spaces touched Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Jeremy Goucher ICEAA 2016 Herren Associates, Inc. 6
Major Assumptions Scalable Cost - Equipment procurement costs are scalable based on the number of cabinets, processors, servers, and/or arrays; installation costs can be scaled by equipment weight and/or percent of spaces touched Consistent Contract Pricing Cost of procurements made outside of the current contract period of performance (PoP) would be consistent with current CLIN pricing Static Staffing Levels - Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC) staffing levels for combat system procurements are relatively static from year to year Equipment Removal and Refurbishment Nearly all combat system equipment can be removed, refurbished, and reutilized for a future effort Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Jeremy Goucher ICEAA 2016 Herren Associates, Inc. 7
Results WBS Element Modify EDD 964 Modify CG 47 Commercial Hull Commercial Barge Ship Design $2.82 $2.82 $1.54 $1.54 Vessel Procurement $11.28 $4.36 Equipment Procurement (Incl. RCS) $59.23 $42.05 $64.36 $64.36 Installation $16.92 $17.95 $10.00 $11.03 Activation / Pre-Ops Testing $8.72 $8.72 $8.72 $8.72 Range Facility Upgrades (Incl. ESSM & PATAS) $9.23 $9.23 $9.23 $9.23 Sustainment $3.08 $8.21 $3.08 $3.59 TOTAL $100.00 $88.97 $108.21 $102.82 Equip Removal & Refurbishment $9.74 $6.92 $11.54 $12.56 (less Potential Future Cost Avoidance) ($38.21) ($34.10) ($39.23) ($39.23) POTENTIAL TOTAL W/ COST AVOIDANCE $71.54 $61.79 $80.51 $76.15 Data has been normalized. Requests for official results should be referred to Naval Sea Systems Command, Cost Engineering and Industrial Analysis Division. Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Jeremy Goucher ICEAA 2016 Herren Associates, Inc. 8
Ex-Post Observed Crosschecks Ship Design Changes As Percent of Installation 15.4% Installation As Percent of Procurement 26.0% Removal/Refurbishment As Percent of Procurement 17.6% Activation/Developmental Test As Percent of Procurement 15.6% Crosschecks are relevant to similar scoped projects Mature design Same order of magnitude cost Unique to shipbuilding Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Jeremy Goucher ICEAA 2016 Herren Associates, Inc. 9
