EuroDelta-Trend Overview Augustin Colette & EDT Team 17th TFMM Annual Meeting Utrecht
EURODELTA-Trends project focuses on regional CTMs, model validation, emission sensitivity, European policy effectiveness, non-European influence, meteorological variability, natural factors impacts, and model dynamical evaluation for Integrated Assessment Models (IAM). EURODELTA-Trends aims to assess model performance over 20 years, analyze emissions uncertainty, evaluate European policy impact, and study the contributions of various factors to air quality trends. Ongoing analyses focus on database management, trend diagnostics, model capacity evaluation, decomposition analysis, and temporal skill assessment across different modeling aspects.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
EuroDelta-Trend Overview Augustin Colette & EDT Team 17thTFMM annual meeting Utrecht (The Netherlands)
EURODELTA-Trends EMEP/ MSC-W + 6 regional CTMs: Chimere, CMAQ, Lotos-Euros, MINNI, Polyphemus, WRF-Chem Common setup Meteorology Emissions Boundary conditions 3 tiers of experiments 1990/2000/2010 reference Sensitivity (emissions & boundary conditions) Full 20yr hindcast
EURODELTA-Trends Key Questions Model validation How do model compare with observations in 1990, 2000, and 2010 ? How do models capture the trend in observations ? Can we conclude on the uncertainties in emissions? European policy effectiveness What if no emission change occurred in Europe ? Did potency changed over the past 20yrs? Non-European influence What if no emission changed beyond Europe ? What is the uncertainty related to boundary conditions ? Meteorological variability Does meteorological variability contribute to the AQ trend over the past 20 yrs? What is the contribution of natural factors (dust, sea-salt) Impacts Link with effect community (health, ecosystems, climate) What model dynamical evaluation means for IAM?
EURODELTA-Trends: Status Tier Scope 1 1B& 2 3 Participants 7 6 1990-2000-2010 Reference Sensitivity to Emissions & boundaries (1990/2000/2010) Full 20-yr trend 3
Ongoing analyses Database & DeltaTrendTool Diagnostics (Kees Cuvelier) Model validation Ozone 1990/2000/2010 (Maria Teresa Pay, BSC) Trend evaluation Model capacity to capture the trend SIA (Astrid Manders, TNO) PM (Svetlana Tsyro, Met Norway) S&N Deposition (Mark Theobald & Marta Garcia, CIEMAT) Ozone (Sverre Solberg, NILU) Temporal decomposition of model skill Efisio Solazzo & Stefano Galmarini (JRC) Decomposition analysis of driving factors Emission/boundary/meteorology, natural factors (Augustin Colette, INERIS)
Eurodelta-Trends 7 regional chemistry-transport models CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP, LOTOS- EUROS, MINNI, POLAIR3D and WRF-CHEM Time period 1990-2010 + sensitivity simulations Workplan Validation of model results Open the database of model results Link withWGE Trend analyses Sensitivity (emission/meteo.) Uncertainty assessment
